Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

The nature of a ramp in a new factory is that it's more important to get all the ducks lined up before pressing the "high speed" button than it is to force as many cars out the door ASAP. It will start in fits and spurts with more emphasis on testing and tuning before the emphasis turns to volume. The cost per car goes way down when the production line is properly setup and tuned. All of this needs to happen in coordination with the supply chain. Until then it's not desirable to make a lot of cars and the pressure is focused on continuing to improve the line. At some point soon we will likely see production rates take a big leap forward and then the focus will be on keeping production high while continuing to fine tune and improve the line (the optimization and fine-tuning never stops).

Of course, the sooner we get to that step-change in volumes, the better. I can see how the German engineering culture, when compared to the Chinese "get 'er done culture", would likely have a longer time to hitting the "high speed switch" but have a faster ramp from that point and it makes sense that the China ramp would be smoother, with more early production that grows more gradually (but still very impressively). The German production will have a higher degree of automation which takes longer to setup but that will likely be able to hit higher rates eventually.

Indeed, plus, you know, chip shortage. Tesla is supplier limited regardless of which factory the finished car comes from.

 

[growler23]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1527665422010527744

If true, and the negotiations pan out into real factories, this is a Very Big Deal. If I recall correctly, Indonesia has significant battery materials (and little interest in just selling them raw: good for them). Civilization now needs battery plants (and separately, car plants) all over the place to transition as fast as stabilizing the climate requires.

More ammunition plus a new foothold for the army of Model Y's that continues to grow. (rubs hands together in wholly evil manner).

Civilization also needs to stop cutting/burning down the tropical forests. Continuing to destroy those most productive ecosystems - from the estimates I've read - could demolish our planetary life support system regardless of whether we get millions of renewably charged EVs done. Indonesia has some of these forests (not as much as the Amazon though).

Given the care shown in their impact reports to date, I fully expect Tesla to take that into account in their potential work in Indonesia.

 

[vikings123]

I wonder if Indonesia was always the preferred spot, or if they got the nod after India was so unwilling to negotiate on some imports for Tesla "for testing".

In terms of tech talent I would imagine India would have been the preferred destination. Honestly this is India's loss. India, instead of wooing Elon, thought they were calling Elon's bluff. Well guess what Elon was not bluffing.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Definitely a coiled spring thingy. It's the timing that is difficult. It could be on the verge of letting go or it could take months.

We’ll, it’s OK cuz I’m done buying for a while.

I have a taxed account, and no dry powder. As the SP dropped, what I’ve been doing is selling tax lots when cap gains=0, sitting on the cash, then buying back in when it resulted in a few more shares than what I sold. Rinse and repeat.

Sounds suspiciously like shorting, but I have about 15% more shares than I had at the beginning of the year without spending a dime. Done now, as no more tax lots are underwater.

 

[Gigapress]

The nature of a ramp in a new factory is that it's more important to get all the ducks lined up before pressing the "high speed" button than it is to force as many cars out the door ASAP. It will start in fits and spurts with more emphasis on testing and tuning before the emphasis turns to volume. The cost per car goes way down when the production line is properly setup and tuned. All of this needs to happen in coordination with the supply chain. Until then it's not desirable to make a lot of cars and the pressure is focused on continuing to improve the line. At some point soon we will likely see production rates take a big leap forward and then the focus will be on keeping production high while continuing to fine tune and improve the line (the optimization and fine-tuning never stops).

Of course, the sooner we get to that step-change in volumes, the better. I can see how the German engineering culture, when compared to the Chinese "get 'er done culture", would likely have a longer time to hitting the "high speed switch" but have a faster ramp from that point and it makes sense that the China ramp would be smoother, with more early production that grows more gradually (but still very impressively). The German production will have a higher degree of automation which takes longer to setup but that will likely be able to hit higher rates eventually.

As a quality engineer, I approve this message

 

[Gigapress]

 

[EVNow]

In terms of tech talent I would imagine India would have been the preferred destination. Honestly this is India's loss. India, instead of wooing Elon, thought they were calling Elon's bluff. Well guess what Elon was not bluffing.

Its not about calling bluff. Its a political thing. Being "Anti-China" is one of the pillars of the ruling party there.

 

[elasalle]

Its not about calling bluff. Its a political thing. Being "Anti-China" is one of the pillars of the ruling party there.

Allowing TSLA in India had nothing to do with China? (scope - don't import cars from China)

 

[ZachF]

Sure, but he still hasn't solved world hunger.

Cheap plentiful solar will do that eventually

 

[Raisin45567]

I think if the reporting is correct and SpaceX paid a settlement, this has to be taken seriously.

I think if the reporting is correct and SpaceX paid a settlement, this has to be taken seriously.

Please note I didn’t say if it was true or not, but that this is an actual event, in the life of the company, that should soberly be considered. Wish Musk had a real PR team.

 

[MABMAB]

Indonesia is potential big impact rumor!!!

 

[EVNow]

Allowing TSLA in India had nothing to do with China? (scope - don't import cars from China)

I've not followed this closely - but the last I read they were trying to import from China and wanted lower customs duties. All other luxury OEMs import knocked-down kits and assemble locally since customs for the kits is much lower than assembled cars. I've posted some details on this in this thread a couple of years back.

 

[vikings123]

Its not about calling bluff. Its a political thing. Being "Anti-China" is one of the pillars of the ruling party there.

Unfortunately this is true. The ruling party in India decided to use the Tesla discussion as anti-China propaganda. Politicians do things that will fetch them votes.

Allowing TSLA in India had nothing to do with China? (scope - don't import cars from China)

It should not have anything to do with China. Like you said they could have easily stipulated that only Made in Germany cars can be sold in India. But as noted above the whole Tesla investment became fodder for Anti-China propaganda.

 

[larmor]

In terms of tech talent I would imagine India would have been the preferred destination. Honestly this is India's loss. India, instead of wooing Elon, thought they were calling Elon's bluff. Well guess what Elon was not bluffing.

Definitely India's loss, pathetic. Meanwhile neighbor Pakistan continues to shoot itself in the foot with problems in basic governance-- they have a deep sea port in gwadar and terminus of the chinese pak economic corridor. Good for Indonesia, great location, and hope they can build it fast!

 

[elasalle]

lower BB 636 ....

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Maybe best to not tell her until you have the pudding.

Eh...she thinks im dumb regardless of what i do anyways....apparently all the millions of $TSLA gains count for nothing to her

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Allowing TSLA in India had nothing to do with China? (scope - don't import cars from China)

You know they'd _want_ to import from China, but if necessary they'd import from elsewhere.

With the border war (just one of many countries China's been trying to slice land from) there's no way India wants anything from China if they can help it.
Tesla doesn't need India, and India doesn't need Tesla so no point fighting hard.

 

[EVNow]

Here is the write up about what happened for Tesla with India. Nothing mentioned about China here, but Tesla wanted lower import duties for EVs, which local auto manufacturers, ofcourse, opposed. Tesla didn't want to commit to local manufacturing.

Tesla shelves India plans as calls for lower import duty rejected: report | Autocar India

Tesla had lobbied the government for over a year to reduce import duties, and has now shelved its import plans for India. Click here for more details.

www.autocarindia.com

Tesla’s call for reduced import duties was met with polarised reaction from the Indian auto industry. While some global carmakers such as Hyundai backed Tesla on this front, other homegrown automakers such as Ola Electric and Mahindra Electric remained in favour of stimulating domestic manufacturing.

 

[vikings123]

lower BB 636 ....

I doubt they will let it get there. 638.48 is the magic number

 

[petit_bateau]

I've not followed this closely - but the last I read they were trying to import from China and wanted lower customs duties. All other luxury OEMs import knocked-down kits and assemble locally since customs for the kits is much lower than assembled cars. I've posted some details on this in this thread a couple of years back.

100% control not possible in India at present. Have to bribe local politicians and their oligarchs with the other 50%.

Tesla said no. That was how t was in China, until Tesla refused and insisted on 100%. And only 100% will do in India.

India didn't understand, this was not a bluff.

Let's see how this plays out.