Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[GrandEnigma]

The commemorative share I got at $1234.56 is unhappy.

That said, today is pay day so....

 

[henchman24]

Margin puts an investor in a weak position to handle rare but potential black swan events. Obviously, many people selling at these levels are being forced to liquidate because they foolishly leveraged themselves. And that hurts the share price further. Never under-estimate how a confluence of events can come together to create conditions that seemed impossible at first glance.

I highly recommend against margin in general even though I'm very bullish on the future price of TSLA. I'm not even going all in here because my position is so big and I want plenty of powder left if the worst happens. Certainly, current prices are a good time to re-position and take a much larger position than you would normally have in one stock but I avoid margin on principle. And times like this are why I don't normally like to be 100% in any one company for long periods of time. There should always be room to take advantage of good opportunities.

I don't disagree with you on the basis. Typically 50% drawdowns are great money making opportunities. Margin in general I think should be used cautiously, but it is simply just another tool.

 

[Paracelsus]

Are we really that surprised that Wall St, given the opportunity would drive this down as far as possible?

They got the perfect storm - macro market crash, Shanghai shutting down, Elon twitter drama and Elon selling shares.

We should have all known a hit piece/orchestrated sell off was coming.

This…………and since TSLA is literally trading at a similar price as it was at the SP500 inclusion run-up, many of those Whales on WS are still positive on their initial TSLA investments and now have the ability to add at a similar price….

Of course the pessimist in me has me wondering if Big Money isn’t also getting one last self-inflicted free pass to move funds to Roth’s before we see some more proposed legislation to increase capital gains and IRA taxes

 

[Knightshade]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1527665422010527744

 

[StealthP3D]

We should have all known a hit piece/orchestrated sell off was coming.

I actually warned people to expect peak FUD in coming weeks a few weeks ago when it was obvious the market manipulators were guiding the price lower after record earnings, record margins, record production and record demand.

These reasons are why I am not worried about my investment in TSLA at all. I can wait out the attack longer than they can keep it alive. At some point greed kicks in and, given Tesla's performance, there is no way to stop the share price explosion. Exactly when it happens is not all that important as long as an investor has remained disciplined. This is why I say, "pay attention to the company's performance, not the share price." And Tesla's performance has been exemplary, a few minor hiccups notwithstanding.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

People dramatically underestimate the gravity of this transition. We're not switching fuels for transport or making slightly better sources for electricity. This is one of the biggest turning points in the history of human civilization, IMO potentially the biggest. We just can't see the other side with any focus, so we lack perspective.

Moving from fossil-based scarcity(hoarding) to renewables-based sustainability(abundance) is going to absolutely neuter nearly every source of extreme wealth. We should expect a bit of resistance to such a change.

Agree with the first part, disagree with the second. Elon is exhibit 1, but there will be others helping lead the charge on this transition. This doesn't "neuter" any source of extreme wealth, at most it changes them to different ones. And perhaps that's what you're saying and I'm misinterpreting your point. Much like the conversion for horse and buggy killed the "buggy" industry and fired up the oil and gas industry, this is just another transition to new means of creating wealth.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

Yeah, Elon shows no sign of being frustrated but he does grab the bull by the horns and make his position known.

Just bought 200 more at $666.65. A real steal that will be worth a multiple of what I paid for it in just 2-3 years. Super deal! We are to the point that only real idiots/short-term speculators are selling.

If we somehow manage to avoid a recession, I'm pretty sure that will be weeks or months, not years.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

In for 44 at $660....i am on a mission to prove to my wife i am not dumb!!!

 

[Drax7]

On 300,000 deliveries profits were about $3 billion last qtr.

On 3 million deliveries in the near future, profits may reach $30 billion.

That makes it a forward P/E of 22ish within 2 years .

3 million deliveries is a small number when aspiration is 20 million deliveries.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Agree with the first part, disagree with the second. Elon is exhibit 1, but there will be others helping lead the charge on this transition. This doesn't "neuter" any source of extreme wealth, at most it changes them to different ones. Much like the conversion for horse and buggy killed the "buggy" industry and fired up the oil and gas industry, this is just another transition to new means of creating wealth.

Everything will now decentralize, and with that goes the ability to consolidate effectively. That was the key to fossil wealth, and it doesn't exist in the new dynamic.

Certainly abundance by it's very nature will bring wealth, but that's just one universe crashing into the next. Elon being the wealthiest person in the world for instance. That's just because the future is so much better, not because Elon is hoarding or consolidating.

 

[UltradoomY]

This is not going to be a very thorough post like the @The Accountant or @Gigapress but I follow all the drone posters from Twitter and have done some napkin math that I wanted to share.

From video analysis from different videos at the Giga TX and Giga Berlin locations -
Seems to be 160 model Y's produced and shipped (per day) so far this month at Giga TX - I do not know if they are running Saturday and Sunday (at either location, so that is left out)
Giga Berlin seems to be ahead of that and around 200+ per day
So April
TX - 2500ish Model Y's (late month start)
Berlin - 3500ish Model Y's
Total added to P&D for April - 6000

May
TX- 3500ish Model Y's
Berlin - 4000 Model Y's
Total added to P&D for May - 7500

I am assuming they keep ramping similarly - TX to 200 per day for June and 250 per day for Berlin

June
TX - 4000 Model Y's
Berlin - 4200 Model Y's
Total added for June - 8200

So total additional production from new Giga's 21k (maybe more since ramping)

Last Q there were 14,218 S/X produced and that was 8% more than Q4 - so anticipating 10% increase from Q1 adds - 15,640 S/X
Freemont - 150k 3/Y
Total P&D without Shanghai - 186,640

To hit the same production as Q1 - Shanghai needs to pull out 128,360 cars for the total Q -
We already know they produced 10k in April - May should be around 35k (1200 a day and ramping / 6 days a week)

Leaving around 82,000 that need to be produced in order to meet the Q1 numbers. Highest run rate so far before lock down was 70k plus leaving us around 12k difference.

My personal thoughts are that this will be accomplished - macro will still play a huge part of how this is seen but all analysts calling for lower numbers in the upper 200k range are severely underestimating the Tesla China team!

Cheers to the longs

 

[TheTalkingMule]

All the tons and tons of 5/20 puts are flushed out, time for the MMs to go to lunch and we begin the climb to green.

 

[Spacep0d]

Am I the only one that thinks the world's richest man is about to sue Business Insider for libel? Bankruptcy perhaps?

He should.

 

[henchman24]

Indonesia is really the ideal spot. Fantastic for resources, cheap labor, and RHD country that can easily feed Japan, NZ, and Australia in the area... and will likely feed the UK as well (and if expansion actually happens to other RHD countries). This will stop Shanghai from having to swap from LHD to RHD every quarter.

 

[cliff harris]

100% agree with StealthP3D on margin. You have no idea how smug I feel knowing that I have a pile of tesla stock, that I'm not selling it, no matter what the FUD, and that they CANNOT force me to, through margin calls or any other shenanigans. Be aware that wall street HATES investors like me who buy and hold. They despise us, because they want to force us to trade, trade, trade, preferably with options, or on margin.
They have zero weapons they can use against buy-and-hold investors. Be one of those!

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1527665422010527744

bye bye India, welcome Indonesia

India played hard to get, and now VW is partnering with local Mahindra company ....

 

[bkp_duke]

Indonesia is really the ideal spot. Fantastic for resources, cheap labor, and RHD country that can easily feed Japan, NZ, and Australia in the area... and will likely feed the UK as well (and if expansion actually happens to other RHD countries). This will stop Shanghai from having to swap from LHD to RHD every quarter.

I wonder if Indonesia was always the preferred spot, or if they got the nod after India was so unwilling to negotiate on some imports for Tesla "for testing".

 

[Stretch2727]

Indonesia is really the ideal spot. Fantastic for resources, cheap labor, and RHD country that can easily feed Japan, NZ, and Australia in the area... and will likely feed the UK as well (and if expansion actually happens to other RHD countries). This will stop Shanghai from having to swap from LHD to RHD every quarter.

Agree 100%. Good workforce, they have Nickel. Lots of RHD markets, Singapore, Thailand, etc.

I was amazed on my trip to Thailand in January how many gray market Tesla's were already there. Some LHD.

I really don't want to see Tesla too concentrated in China even though the factory there has executed well.

 

[StealthP3D]

Watch the videos daily. It doesnt seem like the output is very high. Only occasionally do they catch car carriers. Hope that cars are being stockpiled inside. Would also be nice if a drone parked where the cars come out of the factory and see how often they come out. Dont really want to watch holes being dug for foundation at cathode plant.

The nature of a ramp in a new factory is that it's more important to get all the ducks lined up before pressing the "high speed" button than it is to force as many cars out the door ASAP. It will start in fits and spurts with more emphasis on testing and tuning before the emphasis turns to volume. The cost per car goes way down when the production line is properly setup and tuned. All of this needs to happen in coordination with the supply chain. Until then it's not desirable to make a lot of cars and the pressure is focused on continuing to improve the line. At some point soon we will likely see production rates take a big leap forward and then the focus will be on keeping production high while continuing to fine tune and improve the line (the optimization and fine-tuning never stops).

Of course, the sooner we get to that step-change in volumes, the better. I can see how the German engineering culture, when compared to the Chinese "get 'er done culture", would likely have a longer time to hitting the "high speed switch" but have a faster ramp from that point and it makes sense that the China ramp would be smoother, with more early production that grows more gradually (but still very impressively). The German production will have a higher degree of automation which takes longer to setup but that will likely be able to hit higher rates eventually.

 

[henchman24]

I wonder if Indonesia was always the preferred spot, or if they got the nod after India was so unwilling to negotiate on some imports for Tesla "for testing".

Hard to say... I'm sure the whole thing came down to ease of building and guarantees from the gov'ts. India obviously proved to be a pain.