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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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If, like me, the media has put a strong taste of acrid poo poo in your mouth, I created this new thread where people can post examples where the media is wrong in their coverage of Tesla:


Feel free to contribute :).

Moderator: In fact, please do not. Follow breadcrumbs in Moderator’s post instead - 5 posts down; directs to extant equivalent thread.
 
OT?
Great article by Zach Shanan this morning on CleanTechnica regarding inflation and the causes for what's happening now. A bit political but worth a read IMO.
 
Not only were they animal meat, but I found out afterwards that they are the cheapest hotdogs you can buy (which could explain why it tasted so bad). Since our disabled daughter is a human garbage disposal that eats anything, my wife gets those dogs for $1/pack. That's right - an entire pack for $1. I'm pretty sure that means those are filled with all the animal scraps that other profit hungry hot dog companies have too much integrity to use. I'm lucky I didn't need to get my stomach pumped, but it probably took one year off my life.... 🤕

(Edit: Apparently she got the cheap hot dogs to save more money since we were facing margin calls.... She won't do that again.)
Had to disagree... Because...

Just... too much information.
 
If, like me, the media has put a strong taste of acrid poo poo in your mouth, I created this new thread where people can post examples where the media is wrong in their coverage of Tesla:


Feel free to contribute :).
TMC doesn't have enough storage to host such a thread.
 
I have not yet locked @Todd Burch’s new thread, but that is because the platform is not at the moment allowing thread mergers. In the interest of not further clogging the Investor Sector with even more spin-offs, please use this long-standing and equivalent thread. Thank you.

 
Anyone gonna fill us in on the details when Elon shows up please?
It's him. They're introducing him now. Anyone know how I can do a screen share live? lol

Boom!

Screenshot 2022-11-04 at 10.42.16 AM.png
 
The legend speaks. 7x from here on TSLA. I believe he is not including FSD and Optimus possibilities.

If you notice, @1:40 in this clip Ron states he expects TSLA to do a 7X in the next ten years, BUT he's only expecting a 1.5X - 2X over the next three years (today to end of 2024 / mid 2025). 2X from today is only $444 or so, which is right around our ATH of $415. By EoY 2025 he expects $500-$600.

This falls very in line with what I said I expect over the few years too:

Personally I am expecting us to trade under the ATH of $415 for another two to three years, until sometime in late 2024 or 2025 where the fundamentals should be too strong to allow any further compression.

I think the recession might eat up 2023 and keep macros down for a year or so, which could compress TSLA's PE to around 60 or so by EoY 2023. If we see net income of about $20 billion for 2023 our SP would be in the high $300's with a PE of 60. A recession could keep fund managers from investing into TSLA for some time despite our new investment grade ratings, and we need new volume to truly overwhelm the MM's who currently dictate our SP.

Then as the market (possibly) turns around we'd likely push up around our ATH of $415 in 2024 again, but I feel the MM's would do everything they could to keep us suppressed, compressing the PE even further even while we post record quarter after quarter. If we see net income of around $30 billion for 2024 and they push the PE down to 50 then the EoY SP for 2024 would be around $415, our ATH.

2025 is the year I think TSLA will simply be too huge a financial beast to allow any further compression. My model predicts net income of about $44 billion for 2025. If the company keeps growing revenues at that pace then the PE would be hard pressed to stay below 50, but even if it gets pushed down to 40 we'd still see the SP go over the ATH to about $466. If the PE stays around 50 we'd be pushing the upper $500's and close to $600 per share.

2026 onward gets ridiculously impressive from a valuation point of view. :D

Guess I'm not the only one who expects our PE to get compressed like crazy over the next couple of years! :cool:
 
OT?
Great article by Zach Shanan this morning on CleanTechnica regarding inflation and the causes for what's happening now. A bit political but worth a read IMO.

Any article that ends with “Vote Democrat” is more than “a bit political”. The arguments aren’t even very compelling IMHO.

Just for some contrasting content, the IRA is under attack no matter who wins the midterms. Compromises and watering down will have to be made regardless due to international reasons, not domestic politics.

 
All this isn't exact. Not new but interesting.

Ron - invest $7B for a plant. Make 15B/year...who does that?

Ron - How do you intend to make cars for $20k a pop? The way Ron asked it seemed like he knows about cars to come and Elon kind of ran over him to stop him.
Elon - We do expect to make cars that are more affordable than model 3-Y. Cannot announce now.