Personally I am expecting us to trade under the ATH of $415 for another two to three years, until sometime in late 2024 or 2025 where the fundamentals should be too strong to allow any further compression.
I think the recession might eat up 2023 and keep macros down for a year or so, which could compress TSLA's PE to around 60 or so by EoY 2023. If we see net income of about $20 billion for 2023 our SP would be in the high $300's with a PE of 60. A recession could keep fund managers from investing into TSLA for some time despite our new investment grade ratings, and we need new volume to truly overwhelm the MM's who currently dictate our SP.
Then as the market (possibly) turns around we'd likely push up around our ATH of $415 in 2024 again, but I feel the MM's would do everything they could to keep us suppressed, compressing the PE even further
even while we post record quarter after quarter. If we see net income of around $30 billion for 2024 and they push the PE down to 50 then the EoY SP for 2024 would be around $415, our ATH.
2025 is the year I think TSLA will simply be too huge a financial beast to allow any further compression. My model predicts net income of about $44 billion for 2025. If the company keeps growing revenues at that pace then the PE would be hard pressed to stay below 50, but even if it gets pushed down to 40 we'd still see the SP go over the ATH to about $466. If the PE stays around 50 we'd be pushing the upper $500's and close to $600 per share.
2026 onward gets ridiculously impressive from a valuation point of view.