The margin for all BEVs from VW is negative as confirmed by them. See one of my tweets with VW Manager quotes. In terms of registration numbers from what I heard they are 50% below expectations here in Europe. Its not just that it has very little cargo space you can't even fold the bank in the back so most are disappointed. Looks depends and is a question of taste but AFAIK the model disappointed in Europe.To qualify for US IRA that would need to be US LFP. As always the constraint is cell production. However sales of a 2/Z in Mexico and to Mercosur can happily utilise China LFP. So unless US cell supply can ramp more rapidly than US Y production + US Semi production + US Cybertruck production then the US (Austin) pilot production 2/Z line will be cell-starved for a long time. Presuming of course that the $$-GM/kWh is agin the 2/Z and favours the 3/Y/CT/Semi.
I've long said it would be a 2/Z platform rather than a point design. There are a lot of products that need to utilise that 2/Z/etc platform imho. Maybe they won't be prevalent in the USA but they will be widely welcomed outside USA. Apparently WOUSA is 81% of the world.
Regarding Robotaxi wet dreams (which I do not share) I expect to see Optimus doing manufacturing tasks (i.e. a controlled environment, with limited exposure to consenting humans) before I see FSD in a Robotaxi (i.e. an uncontrolled environment, with lots of exposure to unconsenting and uncooperative humans).
Even if/when FSD ever gets released at L4/L5 there is still plenty of other bits of any Robotaxi ecosystem and operating environment to assemble. No point having some sort of London taxi sans steering wheel if the operating licences, software, etc are still a work in progress. So we will (may one day) see a FSD in widespread L4/L5 release with Tesla on the legal liability hook, and only then would moves be made to start production of any specific bespoke vehicles. Trials with generic Y/etc could of course start earlier but they would not exactly be optimised to overcome the cleanliness/etc challenges that some customers will inevitably present. Anyway this means there ought to be a reasonable amount of 'warning' time between FSD going live and (perhaps) a subsequent RT offering. I put zero value on Robotaxi wet dreams in my own calculations.
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By the way there is now a VW ID Buzz running around on the roads near me. Mighty fine looking. I wonder what the GM is on that ? (the photo is from online, but it is the same colour scheme and on UK green-stripe plates so may even be a journo review / demo one - I'll try and clock the registration next time I see it).
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
petit_bateau
Active Member
Your various tweets/etc are spot on imho.
Have you evidence that all VAG BEV models are -GM ? My understanding was that BEV 'division' has -ve GM, plus of course many BEV models. However I was not aware that evidence existed that all BEV models were -ve GM.
Also how is BMW progressing ?
Strange that as the Premarket TSLA price is in the 260’s max pain has dropped to 232.
Is this some sort of timing artifact? Or something else?
Is this some sort of timing artifact? Or something else?
I think the real challenge with EVs will be how companies make money over the longer term. The big automakers already didn’t make money on the initial sale, new cars are sold at cost and then money is made by maintaining and servicing the existing fleet, selling high-margin parts, etc. And of course you’d probably expect worse margins at the front end before ramping up production, however the legacy carmakers losing money on new EV sales would also likely offset regulatory credits they would need to buy from companies like Tesla. So who knows what the full accounting looks like, but those companies have effective transferred over $7b of profit to Tesla through those credits and that would be coming off their bottom line right.
What was unusual was Tesla making money on new car sales, but the price cuts are backing that out and Elon understands this dynamic + is willing to sell at zero margin like everyone else. Elon believes the combination of autonomy and electrification is necessary to pull this off.
What was unusual was Tesla making money on new car sales, but the price cuts are backing that out and Elon understands this dynamic + is willing to sell at zero margin like everyone else. Elon believes the combination of autonomy and electrification is necessary to pull this off.
Yes. Everyone needs to understand that Elon is still in startup mode. And maybe he always will be.
Tesla is still a startup.
Max pain was 230 for this week if you looked at it last week. So it's an increase by 2 bucks.
Weird. The video must have gotten switched by the time I viewed because I didn't see anything but normal (all be it, quick) turns.
Interesting, modest increase but direction is supportive. It seems that next week is looking toward 250 as of this morning.
FYI ETrade/Morgan Stanley's explanation of my margin call (market movement and the high concentration of TSLA in my account) was not satisfactory.
I see now the actual explanation was Morgan Stanley was loading up on TSLA before the upgrade last night by Morgan Stanley.
Edit: My margin call is gone now as of today's pre-market and I have plenty of available margin again. I did not sell anything or deposit cash.
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Isn't Max Pain based on options, which don't trade pre-market?
Joe F
Disruption is hard.
StapleGun
Member
While I appreciate any short term bump from the recent Morgan Stanley note and price target increase, the specific points in the note are mostly noise with little signal. This is after all the same Adam Jonas who in 2014 caused a big spike in TSLA when he released a note stating "in car entertainment" would be the main driver of future value in the company.
Yes, but this week is a Triple Witching OPEX, there are calls and puts traded two years ago skewing the price
Do we have a link to see full crash tests?To qualify for US IRA that would need to be US LFP. As always the constraint is cell production. However sales of a 2/Z in Mexico and to Mercosur can happily utilise China LFP. So unless US cell supply can ramp more rapidly than US Y production + US Semi production + US Cybertruck production then the US (Austin) pilot production 2/Z line will be cell-starved for a long time. Presuming of course that the $$-GM/kWh is agin the 2/Z and favours the 3/Y/CT/Semi.
I've long said it would be a 2/Z platform rather than a point design. There are a lot of products that need to utilise that 2/Z/etc platform imho. Maybe they won't be prevalent in the USA but they will be widely welcomed outside USA. Apparently WOUSA is 81% of the world.
Regarding Robotaxi wet dreams (which I do not share) I expect to see Optimus doing manufacturing tasks (i.e. a controlled environment, with limited exposure to consenting humans) before I see FSD in a Robotaxi (i.e. an uncontrolled environment, with lots of exposure to unconsenting and uncooperative humans).
Even if/when FSD ever gets released at L4/L5 there is still plenty of other bits of any Robotaxi ecosystem and operating environment to assemble. No point having some sort of London taxi sans steering wheel if the operating licences, software, etc are still a work in progress. So we will (may one day) see a FSD in widespread L4/L5 release with Tesla on the legal liability hook, and only then would moves be made to start production of any specific bespoke vehicles. Trials with generic Y/etc could of course start earlier but they would not exactly be optimised to overcome the cleanliness/etc challenges that some customers will inevitably present. Anyway this means there ought to be a reasonable amount of 'warning' time between FSD going live and (perhaps) a subsequent RT offering. I put zero value on Robotaxi wet dreams in my own calculations.
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By the way there is now a VW ID Buzz running around on the roads near me. Mighty fine looking. I wonder what the GM is on that ? (the photo is from online, but it is the same colour scheme and on UK green-stripe plates so may even be a journo review / demo one - I'll try and clock the registration next time I see it).
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Yes, it looks like Adam Jonas is being somewhat disingenuous here. His note focuses on Dojo and Dojo as a service. But it's still not clear if Dojo itself will be superior to Nvidia's offerings. And it is quite clear that Dojo as a service won't be happening for a very long time, if ever.
I think what Jonas really wanted to say was, "V12 is going to be amazing and I think autonomy is finally here!". But if he said that, the market would just laugh. So a focus on Dojo is a way to justify the upgrade without sounding crazy.
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Historically, hasn't just about every single Adam Jonas upgrade preceded a stock sale? I know things have changed a lot in the past three years or so, but I'm still leary of that snake.
Krugerrand
Meow
Well, that’s about as big a misrepresentation one can throw out there of what happened, what will happen, and why.
There was nothing unusual about Tesla making money on new car sales. It happened because they made it happen;
-by being a scrappy startup and doing more with less
-by concentrating religiously on efficiencies and cost reductions in every aspect of the business
-by eliminating the middlemen
-by vertically integrating their business in as many ways as they could
-by being business savvy and know how to grow the business and at what speed
-by taking necessary and calculated risks
-by not being unionized and delay monetarily rewarding their employees via stock options thus keeping wages in check and incentivizing them to work hard
-by delay monetarily rewarding their upper management with stock options thus eliminating bloated executive wages and incentivizing them to work hard
-by cultivating a specific culture and living it
-by not being burdened by legacy costs
- and so on
Tesla has hardly given back profits on new cars. They’re still making money hand over fist. How convenient of you to have forgotten what happened in the world the last 3 years as well the rate of growth and expansion of the company and what they’ve done with their money in totality.
Lastly, the driving reason for reduced prices and thus reduced gross margins is to fix the last barrier to the end goal - affordability for ALL.
Krugerrand
Meow
Is there any other way for him to be? (Rhetorical). Honestly, if he could pull out the terminator et al excuses, fine by me. Just means a bigger mountain fortress.
GhostSkater
Member
Looks like Tesla setup/is setting up a second version of the prototype Semi production line, speculated to be more automated
Nvidia doesn't offer training as a service. They just sell hardware. Other companies rent out cpus/gpus as a service like AWS and MS azure.
Nvidia focus on hardware sales which Tesla is not interested in (except the fsd computer which will be sold when another company license fsd).
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