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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Talking about honest, how many of those collected $50k deposits and kept them for years ?
To be serious, many OEM cases exist for new models that require deposits that end out being held for many months, sometimes years. I made a quick reviews and found nine cases for me, every one of which was an announced vehicle that was not yet in production. Some were mundane (e.g. Honda Accord 1977) some distinctly uncommon (e.g. Morgan +8) but all were, at the time, demanding and getting advance payments, in two cases full payment in advance.

Still, few have managed to maintain such practices over years with Tesla, Ferrari and some exotics the only ones who've seemed to regularly achieve that status.
 
Giga Texas already has an installed, functioning GA line to produce the 4680 cell-based Model Y. It will be trivial to soak up any excess 4680 cell production, and keep 100% of the IRA production credits to boot. I think this was always the plan. ;)

I agree that Tesla should start CT production with the LR verion only (I wouldn't be surprise to see "Beast Model" only at the start). I don't think 170/100 would be the pack sizes. Imma guess more like 200/133 KWh but that's just me... ;)

Yes, but still not enough on the short term to absorb the cell supply, with the 4680s V2 they can make Model Ys that are identical to the 2170 version

If we assume half of Texas 250k/year becomes 4680, that would still only need 10.25 GWh/year of 4680 production, that combined with Cybertruck would only absorb a bit more than one line worth of supply, when they have 4 and 4 more coming soon

For Model Y to use that production of the 4680 version would need to increase three fold to 375k/year, which not gonna happen in 12 months

I'm sure Tesla has a plan and contingency plans and then contingency plans on those also, but I'm really curious where they will put those many cells on the short term, storing for long term for future use doesn't work, since it takes a lot of space, needs to be on a climate controlled environment and so on

Semi is far from absorbing that many cells, since Nevada expansion is pretty slow or not even started, the $25k model would need even higher production volumes since the battery pack will be considerably smaller than a LR Model Y, Model S Plaid+ would barely make a dent in cell usage

Grid storage would work, but would need another Lathrop or two pretty soon for that and LFP from CATL is a better fit
 
Some context here.

In 2019 Tesla short interest was close to 25% of the shares outstanding, meaning 25% of the shares needed to be bought back for shorts to settle.

Now Tesla is the biggest dollar value short due to the increase market value, but shorts are 3% of shares outstanding.

Not quite the setup we had in the past for an explosive move as happened in 2020.


Days to cover or % of shares outstanding is the better metric to look at this and we are no where near the top short.



Edit:fixing link showing short interest in 2019.
 
Some context here.

In 2019 Tesla short interest was close to 25% of the shares outstanding, meaning 25% of the shares needed to be bought back for shorts to settle.

Now Tesla is the biggest dollar value short due to the increase market value, but shorts are 3% of shares outstanding.

Not quite the setup we had in the past for an explosive move as happened in 2020.


Days to cover or % of shares outstanding is the better metric to look at this and we are no where near the top short.



Edit:fixing link showing short interest in 2019.
I had to look... BYND is deeply shorted. Can't wait for earnings soon. Cows are gathered in protest... everywhere. 🤷‍♂️

1699540715408.png


I think they're going to Unionize.
1699540989912.png
 
Now Tesla is the biggest dollar value short due to the increase market value, but shorts are 3% of shares outstanding.
Note: that 3% is a custom S3 calculation. (Where they add the number of shares shorted to the float value to reduce the %. For example, if there were as many shares shorted as existed in the float the SI % would only be 50%, instead of the 100% people would expect. And it can't go over 100% even if there are more shares shorted than actually exist.) Unless they finally gave up on that. (They use to list both numbers in their posts.)
 
Can somebody please respond to this report? All my friends HATE EVs and thing the entire thing is a complete scam. Reports like this fuel their fire.

View attachment 989226
A couple trillion a year is not such a big deal for new renewable power structure. Articles like this always make it sound like it is a dead investment and complete loss. That there is nothing gained at all.

Simply the absence of air pollution in urban centers would cover the two trillion a year in health costs. But of course, this is someone else’s cash cow as well….
 
Yes, but still not enough on the short term to absorb the cell supply, with the 4680s V2 they can make Model Ys that are identical to the 2170 version

If we assume half of Texas 250k/year becomes 4680, that would still only need 10.25 GWh/year of 4680 production, that combined with Cybertruck would only absorb a bit more than one line worth of supply, when they have 4 and 4 more coming soon

For Model Y to use that production of the 4680 version would need to increase three fold to 375k/year, which not gonna happen in 12 months

I'm sure Tesla has a plan and contingency plans and then contingency plans on those also, but I'm really curious where they will put those many cells on the short term, storing for long term for future use doesn't work, since it takes a lot of space, needs to be on a climate controlled environment and so on

Semi is far from absorbing that many cells, since Nevada expansion is pretty slow or not even started, the $25k model would need even higher production volumes since the battery pack will be considerably smaller than a LR Model Y, Model S Plaid+ would barely make a dent in cell usage

Grid storage would work, but would need another Lathrop or two pretty soon for that and LFP from CATL is a better fit
Could be the Model 3 US version. Move it to Giga Castings front and rear and it will need those 4680s. And should qualify for the tax credit.
 
Can somebody please respond to this report? All my friends HATE EVs and thing the entire thing is a complete scam. Reports like this fuel their fire.

View attachment 989226

First, the statement about "slowing" may well be true. For the many companies that don't have Tesla's cash reserves, higher interest will slow them down.
It doesn't mean "stopping", but it is true that capital must be deployed to build what we desperately need built, and capital right now "costs more" due to higher interest rates. Those headwinds will slow Tesla less (or not at all!) compared to the many other companies in the renewable transition space due to their significant cash reserves AND positive cash flow.

Second, Tesla answered this well in Master Plan Part 3. Relevant summary: it costs a good bit more money to run Fossilness As Usual than it does to build the renewable future.
 
Could be the Model 3 US version. Move it to Giga Castings front and rear and it will need those 4680s. And should qualify for the tax credit.
Certainly helps, still too little lol

Tesla is going to have huge amount of cells while other are struggling to get even a little, this year they will use around 150 GWh, but only in house they will be adding at least 300 GWh by the end of 2025, so ignoring any additional supply from third parties, 450 GWh by end of 2025 (hopefully)
 
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Thanks to all the initial responses!

I know the feeling. It’s much like the odd one out in a political gathering, very frustrating and challenging to counter the FUD no matter how much you know.

But after a while, you become the guru in you circles. They be asking you for the updates as they start to question things. They will test the FUD on you to see if it sticks. Good luck, cuz logic isn't most people’s forte now a days.
 
Note: that 3% is a custom S3 calculation. (Where they add the number of shares shorted to the float value to reduce the %. For example, if there were as many shares shorted as existed in the float the SI % would only be 50%, instead of the 100% people would expect. And it can't go over 100% even if there are more shares shorted than actually exist.) Unless they finally gave up on that. (They use to list both numbers in their posts.)
Ok but if I take the Nasqaq reported short interest at 85M shares and divide by the shares outstanding 3,176M I get 2.7%. Too many variables as some calculations take Elon's shares out of the float and I thought Igor added in shorted shares based on some type of market monitoring.

Anyway, the point is we are no where near the same level of short interest of the past even though TSLA is the biggest dollar value short.
 
HSBC covering the FUD this morning. This is the same HSBC Holdings that has seen it own stock price trading at 40% lower that it was trading for, more than 24 years ago (1999). These guys are clowns.

"Tesla slides as HSBC initiates coverage with $146 price target - The Street"


Yes, the HASBRO HSBC muppets have decided we should 'fill-the-gap':

sc.TSLA.YTD.2023-10-30.19-00.to.Gap.Fill.146.HSBC.MuppetWorkshop.png


Jolly jokers, now graduated from Sesame St. to Wall St... :p

Cheers to the Longs!
 
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Looks like a whole lot of upside for Tesla to me. Not sure I'd want to hold the bag when these funds rotate away from META.
Indeed. At some point investors are going to take a look at the metaverse development finances and realize its just all a big waste of their cash. I think meta is a very shaky stock to hold. A bunch of that money should head to TSLA once the penny drops. I also think GOOG could be in trouble due to multiple court cases and both openai (microsoft) and now x.ai coming to steal their deepmind thunder.
IMHO TSLA is by far the safest big tech stock right now. Maybe NVDA second?