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Tesla's algorithms still out off whack

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Last Monday we went on a rare road trip from the Vancouver Area to Vernon. It was cold and windy and we had to go over a pass (Coquihala Highway). Usually you can travel 400 km with the Tesla. The planner said we had to use the supercharger in Merrit which is about 250 km away.
We left with100% and I was confident as the planner said we would arrive with 28% remaining. We started driving and kept to the posted speed limit all the time. After a while the first warning came to stay below 120km/h to reach destination. No worries, as we were driving slower anyway.
There's the problem. You should have worried at that point.

I checked and saw no that the planner said would arrive only with 5% remaining. What the heck, from 28% to 5%, how come.
Because the car has sensed that you are not making the progress you should have were the driving conditions you were actually experiencing the same as the ones used in the 28% estimate. While the car can include elevation changes in its planning it cannot predict rain, snow or headwinds - the biggest unaccounted for factor.

Still not too worried as I did exactly what the car said. A warning came to remain below 90% to reach destination so - again I did.
At this point you should have changed your plans to get to a charger.


About 30 km before the supercharger I saw that there would be nothing left in the battery! Now I got a bit worried. I had only 7% remaining.
Shortly after that I got the message to charge right away as I could not reach the destination. I only had 1% remaining. I was about 10 km away and going downhill. We just made it to the charger.
Glad it worked out.



Apparently something is still off with the planner. I thought the planner would take into account the weather and road conditions.
How could it know about those? There are planners that try to take wind into account but the wind conditions at your particular location at a particular time are likely to be appreciably different from the value the software pulled from a Weather Underground report pulled from some guy's home weather station 25 miles away. The planner will tell you at every step of the way how much reserve to expect at the destination given what it knows about terrain, speed limits, traffic and, most importantly, how you have been using energy as you drive. You should be monitoring that reserve estimate and if you see it starting to decline, adjust or find a charger.
 
Ok I am back now. We drove off Vernon with 100% charge (well 99% to be precise) now the navigation said that I had to use the Hope supercharger to reach home. The navigation stated that I would reach the Hope supercharger with 23% remaining.
Well it didn't take that long before the 23% remaining charge became 11% charge. I already made up my mind that I would recharge in Merritt and not drive all the way to Hope. Then again I saw the warnings coming again :" stay below 120 Km/h to reach destination", "stay below 90 km/h to reach destination" (destination being Hope Supercharger) etc. I just ignored it as I would recharge in Merriitt anyway. I would have more than enough fizzle to reach Merritt.
I was kind of curious if the planner would change the charging locatation too as I was driving way too fast. The navigation would have known that I would never have reached Hope.
Strange thing is that a long stretch the indication of how much charge would be remaining at Hope Supercharger was kind of stuck, it just didn't change. And then, just before Merritt the navigation indeed redirected me to the Merritt supercharger. I though that was kind of cool.

I recharged at Merrit to about 95%. We finally reached home with about 30% reaming. So the same stretch from my home to Merriitt we barely made with only 1% remaining and from Merritt to home we had almost 30% remaining when we reached home! On our way home there wasn't much wind though and the temperatures were also a bit more friendly. But still what a difference!!
 
So the same stretch from my home to Merriitt we barely made with only 1% remaining and from Merritt to home we had almost 30% remaining when we reached home!

Elevation change. Vancouver to Vernon is an 1164 foot elevation gain. The way back is downhill.

Here are some numbers from EVTripPlanner for a trip from Vancouver to Vernon .

Distance 275 miles. Elevation change 1164 feet.
TripTempUsedRMEfficiency
Out7290kWh271328 Wh/mi
Back72 85kWh255311 Wh/mi

For temp changes
TripTempUsedRMEfficiency
Out7290kWh271328 Wh/mi
Out45100kWh299363 Wh/mi
Out25109kWh328397 Wh/mi

For speed changes
TripSpeedUsedRMEfficiency
Outnormal90kWh271328 Wh/mi
Out+20%93kWh279339 Wh/mi