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Thesis: Tesla will focus and play a significant role in SelfDrivingCars Fleets.

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by TD1, Jun 17, 2015.

  1. TD1

    TD1 Member

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    Teslas mission statement:to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport by bringing compelling mass market electric cars to market as soon as possible."

    SelfDrivingCar (shared) fleets will be a massiv catalyst for EV adaption.
    A SDC can drive to charge itself up when the owner doesn't have a garage or is at work. So range would become even less of a concern.

    And fleet cars will financially superior to any hybrid or ICE

    Even at peak rushhour there are only 15% of cars in use, so each SDC fleet, can replace up to 5 regular cars. Which reduces the need to replace each ICE one to one with an EV.

    So we would need to build far less cars (EVs) overall to cover everyone personal transport needs.

    Steven Jurvetson: "Travis (Uber CEO) recently told me that if by 2020 Teslas are all autonomous, he wants to buy all of them (whole years production)."
    5.21.15 17th Annual Top 10 Tech Trends - YouTube

    SDC fleets will probably take up at least 50% of the whole "personal transport" market.
    The market will be an oligopoly between the 2-3 biggest players out there.
    Reason: Big fleet means shorter waiting times, higher choice of vehicle, better prices and the killer feature of ridesharing that Uber already offers in SF, where you save 50% of the fare if the Cab drives a detour of 2minutes and picks another passenger up that is taking a similar router.

    Especially the morning/evening commutes will be full of ride sharing, since in the morning everyone wants to get into the city and in the evening everyone wants to go out of the cities.

    So for that reason the barrier to entry will be extreme high, which is also the reason for the super high valuation of Uber since they seem to be on the way to get a monopoly to 50% of the world personal transport market.

    Now it could happen that the only player in 2020 that is capable to produce enough EVs to roll out a SDC fleet is Tesla. Since no one else has the battery supply capacity.

    Tesla will partner with Google: Although Elon declined any rumours, and even stated that he thinks that Google is on the wrong path with their technology I think this is just the biggest trump that Elon has up his sleeve.

    - The reason that Elon gave is: "Googles system costs 100k$ therefore its not feasible" its to ridiculous to be his actual opinion, Elon is smart enough to know that research equipment is far more expensive then mass market production, also there is nothigh magical or inherently expensive in the Velodyne radars (reason from first principal Elon ;) )

    -SpaceX just partnered with Google for a 10B$ project, so Google likes to work with Elon

    -Elon stays 2x a week at Sergeys  house so they are probably really good buddies.

    -Google once wanted to buy Tesla to have a steady supply of production cars for their SDC rollout.

    -A leading person for Googls SDC team already hinted that Google is not interested to sell their technolgy to everyone, and are more interested to become a competitor to Uber. (which is why Uber created their own SDC research team)

    Since henry Ford there was never an opportunity where it was that straight forward to capture 50% of the world personal transport market.

    I as a shareholder would want Elon to throw everything at it to become part of the SDC fleet business.

    I would like to hear opinions to my theory.



    Morgan Stanley report on SDCs, for those who still dont see the light.
    http://www.wisburg.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/%EF%BC%88109-pages-2014%EF%BC%89MORGAN-STANLEY-BLUE-PAPER-AUTONOMOUS-CARS%EF%BC%9A-SELF-DRIVING-THE-NEW-AUTO-INDUSTRY-PARADIGM.pdf
     
  2. sahanim

    sahanim Member

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    #2 sahanim, Jun 17, 2015
    Last edited: Jun 17, 2015
    Thanks for the link!

    With regards to emerging markets like india, china, brazil and mexico i've been thinking about this and i'd have to disagree with the report to a certain degree.

    96% of a cars life is spent parked(probably less in EMs). I believe EMs will implement costs associated to owning a license plate similar to china. This will help reduce the over congestion and pollution problems which presents an interesting opportunity for ride sharing programs like Uber.

    Further implementation of autonomous in these countries will be substantially more difficult. Infrastructure aside, no one follows traffic rules in these countries making a nightmare to implement autonomous technology. We'll see it in the US, Canada and Nordic countries at least a decade before we see it in any of the EMs.

    I also dont see "autonomous friendly driving zones" as a high priority for EMs as the report suggests.
     
  3. Jaff

    Jaff Active Member

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    Based on the hurdles involved with self driving cars (legislative / sensor unreliability / etc...) I wouldn't expect self driving cars by 2020...jmo
     
  4. 9837264723849

    9837264723849 Member

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    What do you expect from Tesla to self-charge a SDC fleet? Battery swap, snake charger, inductive charger, something else? And if most of a SDC fleet is used for the same commute, how do you manage charging a fleet at rush hour?

     
  5. TD1

    TD1 Member

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    Its much cheaper to operate an EV then an ICE.
     
  6. 9837264723849

    9837264723849 Member

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    In 2015, 2020 or 2025?
     
  7. TD1

    TD1 Member

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    Today!
    EVs become more competitive with higher milage per year. Why do you think is the Model S used as a Taxi in so many places.
    Because at 70000 Miles/year the electricity cost are much lower then the cost for gas at 70000 miles/year, so even thought the initial cost for a EV are higher, over the lifetime its cheaper to operate an EV.


    ps. I think you are trolling me anyway...
     
  8. 9837264723849

    9837264723849 Member

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    I am not, I just want to my keep feet on the ground. I've only seen one Model S taxi, and the fare was really expensive.
    I really doubt that Uber and/or Google will deploy a large fleet of Tesla SD cars before 2025, unless Tesla launches a cheap city EV.
     
  9. TD1

    TD1 Member

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    Now you have seen 168.
    Amsterdam Airport Enlists 167 Tesla Taxis - Gas 2
     
  10. 9837264723849

    9837264723849 Member

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    Here are some pics of Uber's self-driving car prototype:
    11820595_1501910643458860_353480547_n.jpg
    11856817_904251222962899_1292260531_n.jpg

    via reddit
     
  11. RationalOptimist

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    I'm with you. If you pull the camera back and ask what is the most rational future for transport, the answer is large fleets of self-driving electric vehicles. The future is set up for an almighty battle between Tesla, Uber, Google and Apple. The traditional auto manufacturers will steadily lose relevance. *Maybe* Tesla could partner with one of the other three, but the problem is they will all want to own the single biggest value-creating pieces, namely the reliable self-driving software, and the massive network effects that market leadership will bring. Tesla will be formidable competitor if it focuses on this strategically, but you could argue that Google's strategy of focusing on safe, low-speed vehicles designed to leap straight to true self-driving capability, will mean they're the first to market, and there will be huge first-mover advantages.
     
  12. 9837264723849

    9837264723849 Member

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    What matter for SDC fleet? IMO, in order of importance:

    1. low cost of car + battery manufacturing
    By 2025, I think the leader will be the first giant manufacturers that fully switch to BEV (BMW?) and that either build their own GF or partner closely with a battery giant (like Tesla and Panasonic). Apple and Alphabet could be there too if they invest heavily in the sector (directly like Tesla, or with partners in auto and battery manufacturing - like Apple and Foxconn). Tesla could be one of the leader if they're all-in battery R&D, succeed in making the GF a real product and if they fully automate their production and assembly lines (these require huge margins or capital raise...).

    2. reliability and durability
    Tesla could win this game, if they're serious about the 1 million miles drivetrain goal and considerably reduce the car complexity (cf. the X doors and the latest CR report about Model S reliability).

    3. self driving machine learning
    I'm sure Google will far ahead of the pack. Apple, Uber and Tesla will follow suit. Even though Autopilot is pretty good, Tesla must step up its game as the others will rush to 3D-model the streets all over the world (flash lidar coming?)

    4. charging network size and density
    Tesla is #1 now, but the game will completely change as huge alliance will be made (SDC manufacturers, utilities, national operators, independent companies like Bolloré / Fastned...).

    5. number of customers
    Uber is spending billions to secure this. But Google and Apple will leverage Android and iOS to get billions of users into their cars. Facebook, Samsung and Amazon will certainly do some partnership just to disturb Google and Apple.
     

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