trading

[Antares Nebula]

Bought some 232.5 calls for $1. Playing both sides today! Though only small positions, with a small portion of my weekly winnings.

Closed everything out for a net small loss. Today was actually how I thought yesterday would be and vice a versa.

I want to buy puts for next week and beyond in case SEC drops the hammer on Elon for that solar tile tweet, but put premiums are too expensive now. Last time, they dropped the news on Sunday night, Monday morning. Well, at the least I can buy some cheap shares if that happens.

 

[Runarbt]

Sold my first put today, a $200 put for next week. It only paid $55, ok for a first try. With only $20k (+55) i my account, I am limited to maximum a $200 put for now. Have to build up some more funds first to expand. Could sell a $200 2021 put for $4-5k- but that'd tie everything up right away. Will aim for shorter dated puts - so when I do end up buying those 100 shares (put exercised), I can turn around and sell a call on those, and put when those are called away.. etc.

This is my trading account. Have other long-term shares - so I wont miss out on any stock rise either. Just sckd these past years with the "TSLA stuck between 150-380" rollercoster. I got boored with just long stock.. spent some money on calls these past 2 years, those funds grew, and then died due to time cost. Trying the other side of the table, selling options instead of buying, and "pocket the time cos". :-D

 

[anthonyj]

Sold my first put today, a $200 put for next week. It only paid $55, ok for a first try. With only $20k (+55) i my account, I am limited to maximum a $200 put for now. Have to build up some more funds first to expand. Could sell a $200 2021 put for $4-5k- but that'd tie everything up right away. Will aim for shorter dated puts - so when I do end up buying those 100 shares (put exercised), I can turn around and sell a call on those, and put when those are called away.. etc.

This is my trading account. Have other long-term shares - so I wont miss out on any stock rise either. Just sckd these past years with the "TSLA stuck between 150-380" rollercoster. I got boored with just long stock.. spent some money on calls these past 2 years, those funds grew, and then died due to time cost. Trying the other side of the table, selling options instead of buying, and "pocket the time cos". :-D

You have to sell your calls when they are making you a profit. They almost always expire worthless. It’s like a game of hot potato

 

[Runarbt]

You have to sell your calls when they are making you a profit. They almost always expire worthless. It’s like a game of hot potato

I know... now.. They went from 5k to 35k to 0.. (rolled them a few times. but waited for sp $400 which never came). It hurt. But this is what you learn from I guess. ;-)

 

[EVNow]

I want to buy puts for next week and beyond in case SEC drops the hammer on Elon for that solar tile tweet, but put premiums are too expensive now. Last time, they dropped the news on Sunday night, Monday morning. Well, at the least I can buy some cheap shares if that happens.

My reading of the new deal is that SEC will not directly go to court without first talking to Musk's lawyers first. They will explain how 1000/wk is within guidance of 1GW / year.

Anyway, puts are indeed very expensive as a hedge.

 

[willow_hiller]

Good predictions! I'm working on a model to pull state prices out of the options chain. Looks like there's two theories in the options prices for Friday: a peak around 220, and a second peak around 250+. Not a prediction of what will happen, but given the options prices I think this gives us a rough idea of what options traders are thinking on aggregate.

View attachment 435186

Looking back on this chart a week later, it looks like my model is about as useful as max-pain. The SP fluctuated between those two peaks, but at the end of the day on Friday it seems like the market-makers picked the lowest valley in-between the two.

This options expiring this coming week have state prices with three peaks at 227, 239 and 257 respectively, with valleys at 229 and 243. Max pain is at 240.

 

[EVNow]

Now that futures are down 1% on tariff war escalation, what trades do you guys plan to do tomorrow ?

I'm no longer sure about buying call at MMD.

 

[anthonyj]

Selling $225 puts this morning, trade war panic will blow over again like it does every week

 

[bdy0627]

I'm going to watch things this morning and probably buy once it looks like the stock is bouncing from the drop, but I'm not going heavy. I could see the market bounce a little and then continue down further. I'm not convinced we should expect a really good market bounce right now.

 

[bdy0627]

Still just watching from the sidelines. SPY seems like it wants to go lower yet. It's fallen well below the channel line. TSLA relatively stable given how down the market is, but it's below the channel line. It is still above 50 MA though, so there is some support immediately below.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Selling $225 puts this morning, trade war panic will blow over again like it does every week

Gutsy! Hope it works out.

I'm watching from the sidelines. Seems there may be a double bottom around 225.5. But the day is not over yet.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Have to say that TSLA holding up extremely well given the markets.

 

[bdy0627]

200 MA test appears to be looming for SPY. TSLA quite stable today, which makes me wonder if it won't bounce as much when the market finally does bounce.

 

[defc0n]

I would look to see if SPY has support here at 275. If not, 250. If not, things get murky, but maybe a bit above 200.

Market seasonality is not currently a positive catalyst either. Some very well may choose to keep their money out until Halloween now.

I still had almost all my money in bond funds. Missed out on gains from early in the year until now though. I’m still not in a rush to move that back into equities that’s for sure.

My personal hope is to wait until November and see where the market is before deciding to move my big pile of money anywhere.

 

[bdy0627]

I'm skeptical of this after hours market bounce. Frankly, given the deteriorating trade situation with China along with softening economic data, the market should be down a lot. I won't be surprised to see lots of sellers of this bounce. I'm staying on the sidelines for now.

 

[bdy0627]

 

[anthonyj]

Selling $225 puts this morning, trade war panic will blow over again like it does every week

Bought back for 41% gain

Edit: I did buy them back at $218 and just sold it again for $300 lol. Let’s see

 

[Antares Nebula]

Bought back for 41% gain

Edit: I did buy them back at $218 and just sold it again for $300 lol. Let’s see

And I was just about to congratulate you. Don't be greedy. But, hope it works out for you.

I'm still spectating, but would love to buy some shares at the 200 gap fill.

Impossible to predict. Held up strong yesterday, but today, market is up and TSLA is down. Go figure!

~225 is 50 daily SMA

~222 prior low support, pivot

If these break then

 

[anthonyj]

And I was just about to congratulate you. Don't be greedy. But, hope it works out for you.

I'm still spectating, but would love to buy some shares at the 200 gap fill.

Impossible to predict. Held up strong yesterday, but today, market is up and TSLA is down. Go figure!

~225 is 50 daily SMA

~222 prior low support, pivot

If these break then

I made money on them again, bought back for $240 :3

 

[defc0n]

I’ve had a good past month, my luck is bound to run out soon. Not using any options. Just trading lithium stocks and shorting macros on a day to day decision basis. TSLA was probably half of it or so. This is only play money for me around 1 months salary. Thinking I should probably cash out gains once whenever I’m up a fair amount (like now?) and always keep it near 1 months salary so it stays a game. I think I’ll make better decisions that way and just keep it as fun. And I probably should just continue staying away from options.

View attachment 426906

Well I was having another good month until ALB got murdered during this market sell off. Only up 3% for the month. holding ALB through earnings tomorrow hoping for a big rebound there.