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Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Boomer19, May 2, 2019.
@bdy0627 @Tenable and anyone else
i guess we should give it another shot - and see if we can keep it going and control it a bit better this time
im not looking to moderate or direct the conversation...i kinda just want to let it fly, but the thing that caught my eye this week, along with everything else is posted below
the recent thing that's been interesting this week is that monday night into tuesday there were many calls to locate tesla stock to borrow. i wrote about this uptick in demand and that tsla cost to borrow went up slightly in turn.
meanwhile tuesday us when NYT had article about Tels undercutting the industry ~ 38% for solar in future, solar installers got ripped and tsla went nowhere.
ihor ( the short interest guy in twitter) confirmed today that theres still plenty of tsla stock to borrow, but rates are starting to creep up slightly as the 'free excess' position on the street is being chipped away at, and short interest is rising
theyre seemingly piling up on tsla shares to borrow so they can suppress any rally after the latest earnings. tivoboy, who, in my experience, has some pretty good insights on technical patterns, may be better positioned to explain more about this. he sees weakness, even after cap raise today, and a support level all the way down to 215ish and the next at 185
i guess my question is, why such a large gap this time? and at this point, has tesla lost all power to the street - their announcements are now akin to throwing pebbles at a rhino...any uptick in TSLA price is quickly beaten down no matter what they say
ive been adding more shares sub 260 in traunches, and have picked up a few long nov 315c on the way.
ive been cautious with approach and have left plenty of ammo for further downturn
i wrote some jan20 and jan21 puts that are covered and are in green
thanks - transporting to trading thread in case we gain some traction here and get some discussion going.
Thanks for opening the thread. I'm out of town right now at a wedding and not checking in much but I will definitely post when I can.
Great day today with huge volume. I think there is a strong likelihood of a climb to at least $27x. I'll post some numbers based on historical trading when I get some time.
Clear skies to $300 next week. Almost all weak hands were shaken out or margin called. Absurd volume for the past week. Valuation of the company will correct very quickly
Here's an update from my spreadsheet tracking dips and climbs. This last dip from $296 to $231 was a 22% drop. That's a pretty sizable drop by itself, but even more impressive is the drop from the prior ATH of $389 back in Sep 2017. This dip brought us down just over 40% from that ATH. The only drop from an ATH since 2014 that has been bigger was in Feb 2016 when we dropped 51% from the prior ATH. The stocked climbed 69% after that dip, but the dip itself was much bigger at 42% from the prior local high. I don't think we can expect that kind of climb, at least not in one shot. Since January 2018, we've had the following dips of over 20%:
-32.2% (-37.3% down from prior ATH)
stock climbed 26.6% from there
-25.6% (-26% down from prior ATH)
stock climbed 13.5% from there
-22.9% (-35.2% down from prior ATH)
stock climbed 25% from there
-21.8% (-36.5% down from prior ATH)
stock climbed 14.2%
-22% (-24.4% down from prior ATH)
stock climbed 15.3%
-20.7% (-28.3% down from prior ATH)
stock climbed 16.1%
-22% (-40.6% down from prior ATH)
How high will we climb from here? All the way back up to the top of the range?
Macros are becoming more uncertain with China, which will certainly be a factor. The 50 moving average on the daily chart ($273) has been resistance. I would expect resistance again there. That's an 18% climb, which is roughly what I think is likely here. If it gets through the 50 MA then the upper BB will likely be the next point of resistance at $286. That would be a climb of 24%. I wouldn't expect more than that before a pullback. We might hit some turbulence here with the China trade conflict, but I will personally be surprised if our current high of $258 is all we see out of this climb before a significant pullback. Notice below on the chart that several climbs were resisted at the mid BB, but buying volume was pretty weak on those climbs. Green candle volumes are much better this time.
yeah i don’t see us raging higher from here, yet. forgetting china and tariff talk, i’d cap it around 285-300, which id take, just to capture gains on the nov 315c (as long as it’s in the next 60 days or so)
now with the tariff talk, we may not see 265-270. it’d be interesting to compare open interest on the next 6 months prior to eq raise, and post eq raise (the final numbers are out - https://ir.tesla.com/node/19861/html,
and then after the tariff outcome this friday, to see if any real deviation. i’m doubtful it’s much different than any other 6 month window sample, considering the bonds are 2024. but just thinking/typing out loud.
i did sell a handful of puts, like i said earlier, but i haven’t written any covered calls yet, just in case. this is the one thing that could provide recurring income that i should probably do. i just don’t want to part with the stock if it takes off past the strike i write.
thoughts on that, or other strategies?
and papafox has been commenting to his hesitation to deploy funds this week due to china talks as well,
i kinda started this thread because i didnt want to clog up his thread, but the genesis of this is pretty much me trying to scan who is talking about the daily movements, like bdy, papa, tivoboy, and all others i see here and there, and carry that to here. if they, or anyone want to chime in that would be great
Totally agree that this thread is much needed. It's crazy to try to weed through many pages of general Tesla posts just to find 1 or 2 related to daily trading thoughts. We will need more than just the 2 of us to post here if we are to keep this thread active. Let's see how it goes. I may try to cross post to the general thread for responses if we don't get any here.
I think with how TSLA has been trading, it is smart to take profits after modest climbs and not hold out so much for larger climbs. At least, that's what I'm planning to do. I generally have bought LEAPs or monthlies out several months and just held those until we got a solid climb, but we haven't been getting the climbs that we used to, so I've still got many of those from when we were around $280 and $300. Those were OTM and are way way down. I'm planning to sell on more modest climbs but keep a small number of nearer dated calls in case of further climb. That way I have less risked but won't be out of the game if there is a larger climb. My calls are down way too far with Tesla at the bottom of range to switch over to selling puts right now. That's a nice lower risk strategy but it wouldn't even come close to capturing what the calls have lost on this long slow drop since December.
Another decent approach would be to buy a few weekly puts after a rapid climb of 8-12% since we usually seem to pullback quite dramatically. I have generally not done well with puts, but that would have been a great strategy over the last 6 months.
well i guess it’s a gamble at this point to bet either way on what happens tomorrow regarding any trade talks. i don’t have a decent handle on what the market thinks the impact is to tesla if talks go south, or how much it’s already priced in...
but i guess it’s not a stretch to consider testing that 228 we kinda held up at last time...but below that people have mentioned allthe way down to 180s. i still find that a little much, and i’d most likely be a huge buyer at that point, depending on the data accompanying a fall like that.
the upside to me remains the same as i previously suggested, and bdy was in same ballpark.
I do think if price is accepted below $230 there is likely rapid capitulation down to $200ish area. I personally think there would be plenty of support around $200 to not be too concerned about much further drop. The upside from there is so massive and the downside so minimal that I think big buyers would step in. It looks like QQQ wants to fill the gap from March 29. That's not too far below anymore. It's at the 50 MA already, so let's see what kind of support that provides.
well this is bad. what probability is this tariff stuff going to stick, versus get some sort of resolution that the market kind of takes a step back and catches its breath. it feels like the market is over-amplifying the issue, or trading based upon the worst-worst case scenario. but i dunno
No idea on the tariffs, but this is quite a reaction. Fear is starting to increase, though I don't sense people are really scared of the market yet. QQQs filled the 3/29 gap, dropping below the 50 MA. It's around $180 now. There is a confluence at the 100 and 200 MA around $172. I would expect that to provide a LOT of support if we continue down. For Tesla, I think the 2x range level around $208 will provide support if we continue down. I will be buying with everything I've got left if we get down below $210.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable
tivo talking price points in the same area