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  1. bdy0627

    trading

    Historic weekly topping tail looks pretty ominous for a lower low next week. If so, should find support at EMA 5 ($611 currently) or EMA 10 ($525 currently.) Lots of chatter from longs about buying again in the $600s, so it seems unlikely we will get down to the $500s.
  2. bdy0627

    trading

    Well, we got to my $490 target and quickly. What a run this has been. I decided I've been greedy enough and sold my June $450 call near close today. Still holding shares and a J21 $500. Happy to see it keep launching upward but also fine with a pullback or some consolidation.
  3. bdy0627

    trading

    I finally sold my March $420 calls near close today and used the funds to buy June $450s and J21 $500s plus more stock. My March calls would have dropped way too much if the stock pulls back on a P&D miss. If there is a miss, and I don't think there is, then I think we are likely to see $360s...
  4. bdy0627

    trading

    I continue to be very bullish, though the stock has run pretty hard for months now. A pullback and retest of the breakout seems very possible. That could happen with P&D numbers not being impressive enough. It could also happen with a general market pullback. On the other hand, if the P&D...
  5. bdy0627

    trading

    I think there is a decent chance TSLA hits an ATH over the next 6 weeks or so. I think this is likely because some funds are going to add soon (or continue adding.) I think nearly everything is lining up for Tesla to take off in terms of demand, production, balance sheet, sentiment, and S&P...
  6. bdy0627

    trading

    Buying some April $420 call lottos just in case this range finally breaks upwards...
  7. bdy0627

    trading

    SPY puts worked beautifully. I haven't been that lucky in a long time. I'm shifting more to cash now but still with heavy TSLA allocation.
  8. bdy0627

    trading

    I've been adding SPY puts lately. Seems like people are starting to chase the market up a bit now. It has been running up for almost 2 months now without a significant pullback. VIX is extremely low and puts are cheap. Investors are starting to relax. That's often the time the market surprises...
  9. bdy0627

    trading

    I'm going to buy some calls near close today regardless of today's price action. I think a lot of bulls were nervous about this holiday week and took some chips off the table. TSLA has been resilient at resisting a further drop. Bulls will look at coming back in now. IV is low and we've had a...
  10. bdy0627

    trading

    I'm thinking it is likely to bottom around $320, but maybe overshoot down to $317. Certainly won't be surprised at other outcomes.
  11. bdy0627

    trading

    So far, this is playing out pretty similar to that gap down from 1 year ago. I'll be surprised to see the stock sustain a climb before next Monday. I think it's likely to get pushed lower tomorrow and Friday. If so, it's a nice BTD opportunity on Monday.
  12. bdy0627

    trading

    It will be interesting to see if the reservation number counters the gap down in the midst of a low volume holiday week. Monday volume should be ok, and perhaps Tuesday too, but after that the stock will be pretty easily manipulated I would think. The safest approach to adding is probably...
  13. bdy0627

    trading

    I think so too. Elon has to be pissed about the glass windows shattering becoming the pivotal moment of the reveal. He can shift the narrative this week by surprising the market with a high reservation count for the truck. I don't expect that but it's possible. Otherwise, with this short holiday...
  14. bdy0627

    trading

    TSLA looking a bit stronger than I expected today. I think there will be a few more red days but I don't see this dropping below $315 if it gets that far.
  15. bdy0627

    trading

    That's what I'm thinking for a worst case with a bounce first around $315. It seems like some do like the truck so maybe it's just very polarizing. I personally picture it in a military setting more than at the grocery store. I was hoping there were 2 different versions of the truck with one...
  16. bdy0627

    trading

    Yikes! I think this was clearly the worst reveal in Tesla history. That's one ugly vehicle IMO. We'll soon see how strong the stock is. I would guess we see a retracement of at least 23.6% and probably more. BTD but not right away. This will likely need several red days to recover.
  17. bdy0627

    trading

    I am too and I think so is everyone, which makes me think that's not what's going to happen. The market often punishes those betting on the obvious. This could be the first event in a while that ends up not selling off, perhaps due to some unexpected positives at the event rather than just the...
  18. bdy0627

    trading

    Hey Boomer, good to see you back. Glad to see your thread is having some traction here. Great to see some older members like Zhelko back contributing. I've been on the forum way less but still lurking some. I'm with Zhelko on TSLA in that I think there is a good chance we head to a new higher...
  19. bdy0627

    trading

    The problem with that thread is the amount of noise. That's the point of this one. It's a little quiet here sometimes but very useful for those interested in this stuff. That's more than I can say about the main thread, which I rarely visit these days.
  20. bdy0627

    trading

    Incredible ER! Unfortunately, I've been burned too many times lately so I am on the sidelines for this one. Congrats to Tesla and all those invested!
  21. bdy0627

    trading

    I sold my SPY puts this morning as I was really playing for a quick gap fill down today that did not happen. Looks like it may consolidate here instead. Also sold my TSLA calls today at 200 MA on the daily.
  22. bdy0627

    trading

    I bought some SPY puts this morning. I think the risk is high for a drop unless substantial positive trade news comes out today.
  23. bdy0627

    trading

    I believe patience will be rewarded on this. We've got a serious trade war, some weakening economic data, a congress looking to impeach the Pres, and a looming election cycle. On the other side, earnings are coming over the next 4 weeks and Thanksgiving/Xmas seasonality is around the corner...
  24. bdy0627

    trading

    I think SPY looks pretty shaky and could definitely see a sizeable drop to retest the long term lower trendline that is currently at $255. It's slanted upwards though so it could easily be $260 or so if/when a retest occurs. Hate to say it but I think Cramer may be right this time.
  25. bdy0627

    trading

    It seems like choppy waters until ER. With the likely ~10% drop in revenue YOY and pretty much unchanged revenue from Q2, I expect strong attacks on the growth story. It's difficult to picture the stock shooting up on that. Seems more likely to go down. Q4 seems like it will be pretty similar to...
  26. bdy0627

    trading

    Yeah, the black swan type events aren't rare with TSLA, so it's easy to get killed selling options even though you can make steady money most of the time. The covered call is a way to mitigate this though since in effect you just lose your shares without benefiting from the climb, but you do get...
  27. bdy0627

    trading

    Well, looks like we have our answer. Unless there is a much larger move during RTH tomorrow, premium sellers win this round (as they often do).
  28. bdy0627

    trading

    I would agree that it seems unlikely that we will see more than a $10 stock movement. I think the most reliable play, as is often the case, was to buy calls several days before and sell them near market close today. Of course, we didn't get that much of a climb, which made it more difficult to...
  29. bdy0627

    trading

    Trading based on delivery numbers is typically easier if we climb further ahead of the release or if we go the other way. I would be contrarian to which ever way we go leading up. I think where we are right now is fairly neutral.
  30. bdy0627

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Technicals look very good right now and that is bringing in a lot of money.
  31. bdy0627

    trading

    I'm back pretty heavily in TSLA again. The market appears to have gotten its wind back, though it still seems a bit fragile right now. I like how TSLA is trading.
  32. bdy0627

    trading

    With the Chinese tariff news coming with the market up near the top of it's current trading range, it's difficult to imagine Powell preventing it from catapulting back down toward the lower end of the range again. We'll see soon enough.
  33. bdy0627

    trading

    My impression is that the S&P will be testing the 200 MA again pretty soon, though there could be a bounce first before it gets down there. This doesn't seem like a great time to keep money tied up in stocks. Too much risk yet.
  34. bdy0627

    trading

    Man, the sidelines feel comfy right now. It sure doesn't feel like this market carnage is over at this point. What happened in the last hour of trading with TSLA? Looks like quite the bear attack to push it way down that was not mirrored at all by the market, news, or other tech/auto stocks. The...
  35. bdy0627

    trading

    Still feels like the market wants to go lower. I'm just sitting on the sidelines watching at this point, waiting for a solid rising tide.
  36. bdy0627

    trading

    I bought a few weekly SPY puts on this bounce. I remain skeptical that the dip is over with a bottom in ATH trading.
  37. bdy0627

    trading

  38. bdy0627

    trading

    I'm skeptical of this after hours market bounce. Frankly, given the deteriorating trade situation with China along with softening economic data, the market should be down a lot. I won't be surprised to see lots of sellers of this bounce. I'm staying on the sidelines for now.
  39. bdy0627

    trading

    200 MA test appears to be looming for SPY. TSLA quite stable today, which makes me wonder if it won't bounce as much when the market finally does bounce.
  40. bdy0627

    trading

    Still just watching from the sidelines. SPY seems like it wants to go lower yet. It's fallen well below the channel line. TSLA relatively stable given how down the market is, but it's below the channel line. It is still above 50 MA though, so there is some support immediately below.
  41. bdy0627

    trading

    I'm going to watch things this morning and probably buy once it looks like the stock is bouncing from the drop, but I'm not going heavy. I could see the market bounce a little and then continue down further. I'm not convinced we should expect a really good market bounce right now.
  42. bdy0627

    trading

    Yeah, could well be. I didn't buy many. I've just been burned enough times now that it seemed wise. I'll be absolutely thrilled if those puts go to $0.
  43. bdy0627

    trading

    Bought a few weekly puts on the Elon tweet vs SEC settlement concern.
  44. bdy0627

    trading

    I picked up 8 weeklies on Monday morning. Sold some around $240 to take a bit off the table. TSLA still looks bullish though.
  45. bdy0627

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The massive drop in sales and gross margins of the S & X since Q4 2018 is the primary cause at this point. Elon obviously did not anticipate sales dropping by over 40% in Q1 and 35% even in Q2 with gross margins at nearly half what they were. That's why he did not anticipate the difficulty in...
  46. bdy0627

    trading

    There may be some shorts choosing to cover on such a huge sudden drop. Is there really that much more potential downside here?
  47. bdy0627

    trading

    We already almost hit the 50% Fib with this huge initial drop. I may be wrong, but I don't think we go much lower. The 50 MA is not far below us at $221 and it should provide support.
  48. bdy0627

    trading

    With this large of an initial gap down plus the uptick rule in effect, I think that's very unlikely. I think we may actually be higher Friday than the low today, and I expect the low to be near the open. In the past, once the uptick rule kicks in, the stock trades in a pretty boring fashion, not...
  49. bdy0627

    TSLA Technical Analysis

    Here's the hourly chart for November 23 2017 with a sizeable gap down of 6.5% after the ER, though not enough to trigger the uptick rule. I think we could see something similar today, particularly with the uptick rule in effect.
  50. bdy0627

    TSLA Technical Analysis

    My guess is that we will see the bottom today, near the open, as a result of the 11% gap down with the uptick rule. I think we then see a mild climb from there over the next several trading days. I will be surprised if we see a rapid recovery from this but I just don't see much further downside...