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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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When do these options expire?

I don't think the specifics were ever disclosed, but it makes sense if they'd sunset at the same time as the debt extinguishes, ie March 2019 and March 2021. It's unlikely we will hit the early conversion criteria (basically stock price above $468. Regular conversion may happen from Dec 2018 at a stock price around $360.
 
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I don't think the specifics were ever disclosed, but it makes sense if they'd sunset at the same time as the debt extinguishes, ie March 2019 and March 2021. It's unlikely we will hit the early conversion criteria (basically stock price above $468. Regular conversion may happen from Dec 2018 at a stock price around $360.

For the record, I don't think five million shares is significant enough to keep TSLA below $360 for much longer, given the upcoming growth/disruption and the transition of the company from inventing new technology (i.e. Model 3 & GF1) to replicating invented technology. There are plenty (dozens?) of companies/investors with more than a couple billion to invest in such an undervalued company with wide and deep moat. Having said that, I've been surprised that TSLA has stayed below $360 for eight months now, so maybe I'm missing something.

Could you please walk me through the mechanics of what happens if TSLA jumps above $360, and the parties holding it down decide it can no longer be kept down? What are the order of trading actions such parties would take to cover/hedge/unhedge or whathaveyou?
 
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For the record, I don't think five million shares is significant enough to keep TSLA below $360 for much longer, given the upcoming growth/disruption and the transition of the company from inventing new technology (i.e. Model 3 & GF1) to replicating invented technology. There are plenty (dozens?) of companies/investors with more than a couple billion to invest in such an undervalued company with wide and deep moat. Having said that, I've been surprised that TSLA has stayed below $360 for eight months now, so maybe I'm missing something.

Could you please walk me through the mechanics of what happens if TSLA jumps above $360, and the parties holding it down decide it can no longer be kept down? What are the order of trading actions such parties would take to cover/hedge/unhedge or whathaveyou?

Most of those billionaires pay an extreme importance to financial statements. No matter how good is the product, moat ...

I think the TRUE turn for when billionaires will invest in TSLA, will be when Tesla will hit consistent profitability AND that competitors will have no "response".
 
Could you please walk me through the mechanics of what happens if TSLA jumps above $360, and the parties holding it down decide it can no longer be kept down? What are the order of trading actions such parties would take to cover/hedge/unhedge or whathaveyou?

Come December 1st, some note holders will start to convert. Tesla expects to settle in cash though, so it will have to come up with potentially hunderds of millions. I suppose it will tap the hedge counterparties for whatever cash surplus that hedge is worth by then. There will actually be very little trade in TSLA shares. Bond holders get paid in cash, hedge counterparties pay cash to TSLA for the value of the hedge position and TSLA finances the rest of the principal differently (free cashflow in the mind of Elon no doubt but personally I don't believe it's going to happen so to me, more debt or equity raises)

Some of the hedge counterparties that are currently holders of TSLA and that entered the hedge to monetize their holding may sell some TSLA to pay Tesla.

All of the above is assuming TSLA share price doesn't rise over the warrants price. The goal of the hedge+warrant was to minimize dilution if the stock price stays within that window. So if there is no dilution then it makes sense that there is actually very little movement in TSLA stock itself but simply a push of piles of cash between the different parties that represent the value of their position given the underlying share price. Once we go over the warrant share price, the story changes.
 
Most of those billionaires pay an extreme importance to financial statements. No matter how good is the product, moat ...

I think the TRUE turn for when billionaires will invest in TSLA, will be when Tesla will hit consistent profitability AND that competitors will have no "response".

I look at this a bit differently. The billionaires (i.e. institutional investors) are already soaking up TSLA shares at an unusual level for a company of this size. I am not aware of many large-cap companies with this much concentration in Top 5 shareholders. Institutional investors (and I'm only talking about reputable, long-term investors with at least tens of billions of dollars in assets under management, not small hedge funds) know that the intrinsic value of companies is primarily driven by long-term fundamental outlook. On this metric, Tesla is the most deeply undervalued large-cap company, as Gene Munster also agrees, and reputable institutional investors know this, hence the concentration. This trend will continue if TSLA does not jump above $400 soon, as increasing Model 3 production

Who care more about historical statements, especially the bottom-line, are retail investors that may one day drive TSLA to a bubble. I agree with you on that part. They will likely start jumping on board when TSLA gets going and achieves all-time highs as Model 3 production ramps.
 
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There are plenty (dozens?) of companies/investors with more than a couple billion to invest in such an undervalued company with wide and deep moat. Having said that, I've been surprised that TSLA has stayed below $360 for eight months now, so maybe I'm missing something.

Tesla should still be considered a risky investment. Production of the M3 has not gone exactly to plan, quality issues could be an issue as they go out to a wider audience, and they are still requiring a lot of cash to sustain operations.

Until the M3 ramp is firmly above the 3-5k a week level and Tesla gets a firm handle on quality all investors should maintain a certain level of cautiousness.

I hate to use the term 'Black Swan', but the odds of an unforeseen negative event are not nil.
 
Come December 1st, some note holders will start to convert. Tesla expects to settle in cash though, so it will have to come up with potentially hunderds of millions. I suppose it will tap the hedge counterparties for whatever cash surplus that hedge is worth by then. There will actually be very little trade in TSLA shares. Bond holders get paid in cash, hedge counterparties pay cash to TSLA for the value of the hedge position and TSLA finances the rest of the principal differently (free cashflow in the mind of Elon no doubt but personally I don't believe it's going to happen so to me, more debt or equity raises)

Some of the hedge counterparties that are currently holders of TSLA and that entered the hedge to monetize their holding may sell some TSLA to pay Tesla.

All of the above is assuming TSLA share price doesn't rise over the warrants price. The goal of the hedge+warrant was to minimize dilution if the stock price stays within that window. So if there is no dilution then it makes sense that there is actually very little movement in TSLA stock itself but simply a push of piles of cash between the different parties that represent the value of their position given the underlying share price. Once we go over the warrant share price, the story changes.

What happens once we go over the warrant share price? Was that a to-be-continued? Do I have to wait for the next week's episode?
 
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Tesla should still be considered a risky investment. Production of the M3 has not gone exactly to plan, quality issues could be an issue as they go out to a wider audience, and they are still requiring a lot of cash to sustain operations.

Until the M3 ramp is firmly above the 3-5k a week level and Tesla gets a firm handle on quality all investors should maintain a certain level of cautiousness.

I hate to use the term 'Black Swan', but the odds of an unforeseen event are not nil.

Yes. Agreed. Thanks for noting that.
 
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Does this mean Bosch will buy cells from Panasonic et al. and build their own modules/packs?

Yes, But the article is a bit confusing in one part. It says that Bosch are basically divesting completely from battery cells but the article states that they believe they need to understand the cell technology but not to manufacture the cells. So I would imagine they would still have some battery cell testing and labs and the like. What is clear to me is that Bosch understood clearly the requirement was to invest $20B over 10 years or so to manufacture cells and they decided that was to risky. But they understood that it was required. Everyone assumes that someone else is going to do it. I think they all assume China will do and dump cells on the market at a loss just like they did with solar. I think that is miss guided. For one, batteries are really really heavy and very expensive to ship half way around the world. This is why Tesla is the only smart company out there. As prices drop, the logistics around raw materials and shipping finished cells around the world is going to become a larger and larger percent of the cost of the cells. Just using dummy numbers, lets say its $200/KWh for Daimler to buy cells from S. Korea. The cost to ship that might only be $10/KWh and the price for S. Korea to get the raw materials from around the world might be $20/KWh including the trip from the mines to where its refined and then a final trip to Korea. If nothing else changes except the cost to manufacture the cells and the price drops to $150/KWh, then that $30/KWh is a much larger percent. As the price drops to $100/KWh it could be as much as 30% of the total cost of the cells. If Tesla has a $0 cost to ship cells because they do not leave the Gigafactory. Tesla is also working on sourcing materials from near where the plant is manufacturing cells. The logistical overhead for Tesla could be as much as 10-15% cheaper then Daimler who might source cells from China or S. Korea. This is not good when you are trying to be competitive. Also, Tesla has a partnership with Panasonic where Tesla is committed to purchase large numbers of cells at a fixed rate that is lower because of the commitment. Is Daimler, an ICEv company going to committed to buy Billions of dollars in cells to get a good price? My best guess is that the competition will be in a constant situation where they are paying more for cells that are of lower quality and thus require better packs to make them both safe and competitive with Tesla in charging and density. You can see this today where you have a car like the Ipace that has a 90KWh pack, is smaller then a model 3 and has a range of about 250miles, which is 60+ less then the Model 3 with a 75KWh pack. That is an impossible hill to climb when it comes to competition. You must really love Jag to buy that vehicle. Why would Daimler have any better pricing? They are no more committed to going Electric and they have not done things required to get prices down. There is only one way, massive scale and highly compressed logistics and supply chain. Scale allows you to buy a company like Ghromann to fully automate the manufacturing process.
 
Yes, But the article is a bit confusing in one part. It says that Bosch are basically divesting completely from battery cells but the article states that they believe they need to understand the cell technology but not to manufacture the cells. So I would imagine they would still have some battery cell testing and labs and the like. What is clear to me is that Bosch understood clearly the requirement was to invest $20B over 10 years or so to manufacture cells and they decided that was to risky. But they understood that it was required. Everyone assumes that someone else is going to do it. I think they all assume China will do and dump cells on the market at a loss just like they did with solar. I think that is miss guided. For one, batteries are really really heavy and very expensive to ship half way around the world. This is why Tesla is the only smart company out there. As prices drop, the logistics around raw materials and shipping finished cells around the world is going to become a larger and larger percent of the cost of the cells. Just using dummy numbers, lets say its $200/KWh for Daimler to buy cells from S. Korea. The cost to ship that might only be $10/KWh and the price for S. Korea to get the raw materials from around the world might be $20/KWh including the trip from the mines to where its refined and then a final trip to Korea. If nothing else changes except the cost to manufacture the cells and the price drops to $150/KWh, then that $30/KWh is a much larger percent. As the price drops to $100/KWh it could be as much as 30% of the total cost of the cells. If Tesla has a $0 cost to ship cells because they do not leave the Gigafactory. Tesla is also working on sourcing materials from near where the plant is manufacturing cells. The logistical overhead for Tesla could be as much as 10-15% cheaper then Daimler who might source cells from China or S. Korea. This is not good when you are trying to be competitive. Also, Tesla has a partnership with Panasonic where Tesla is committed to purchase large numbers of cells at a fixed rate that is lower because of the commitment. Is Daimler, an ICEv company going to committed to buy Billions of dollars in cells to get a good price? My best guess is that the competition will be in a constant situation where they are paying more for cells that are of lower quality and thus require better packs to make them both safe and competitive with Tesla in charging and density. You can see this today where you have a car like the Ipace that has a 90KWh pack, is smaller then a model 3 and has a range of about 250miles, which is 60+ less then the Model 3 with a 75KWh pack. That is an impossible hill to climb when it comes to competition. You must really love Jag to buy that vehicle. Why would Daimler have any better pricing? They are no more committed to going Electric and they have not done things required to get prices down. There is only one way, massive scale and highly compressed logistics and supply chain. Scale allows you to buy a company like Ghromann to fully automate the manufacturing process.

Love this post. Thank you.

"My best guess is that the competition will be in a constant situation where they are paying more for cells that are of lower quality and thus require better packs to make them both safe and competitive with Tesla in charging and density."

Tots agreed.
 
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