TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[dc_h]

The problem that Elon wanted to solve is the FUD spread by shorts. I'm conviced Elon met with investors and they committed to helping solve this problem. For instance, they could make a pool that buys any stock below 320. If successful, the original problem is solved and there's no need to go private.

I think hiring a PR firm is way overdue, and glad to see that was done. A public relations manager reporting to Elon and working with Deepak to manage the corporate and financial image of the company is also needed, probably more than a COO.
Nice to see the kinder gentler Elon in twitter as well. Hope it sticks.

 

[dc_h]

a dumb question.
i went to page
https://fintel.io/soh/us/tsla/ubs
IF (an I'm a complete newbie at options)
It looks like UBS
owns 1,804,673 shares
calls of 3,678,920
puts of 12,051,100

it looks like an imbalance of 6,567,507 shares of puts VS calls and shares owned unless i'm reading this incorrectly.
Now, thats not the "joking" 15,000,000 mentioned a few days ago, but not very insignificant.

If there are options folks (actually any options folks since i know zip) please help enlighten me.....

Is this shares held for clients?

 

[sundaymorning]

I say stock trades higher on Monday on news ,staying public. Some institutional shareholders probably sold their stock based on notion they are not allow to hold stock on private company.

Although I don’t know what Monday will look like I’d have to disagree, if institutions believed that the company is going private, they would have held for $420 or added.

 

[sundaymorning]

Ok people. Tesla is staying public. Now is the time to take a stand against the FUD. I know that TMC is a nice safe place to validate your beliefs in Tesla and the mission, but it's a bit of an echo chamber. While the best, most knowledgeable Tesla minds debate endlessly how many cars Tesla will make and how big Tesla will get, there is a war going on for the hearts and minds of the unwitting who are begging duped into shorting Tesla and spreading lies by parking lot truthers and a constant flow of lies and made up facts.

Just ask 10 random people about Tesla and Elon. You will be shocked at how many echo fud. Social media is a powerful tool, it elected a President many of you despise, yet you huddle in the corner muttering how great Tesla is with little or no actual resistance. It's too bad that more people don't read TMC before deciding what to invest in, but they don't. It's too bad traditional media doesn't come to TMC before posting a dumbass article. They take the short cut off searching for $tsla on Twitter and only see a slew of hot garbage.

It is time to get off your arses and counter some fud. I'm only asking that your search for $tsla and find 10 lies per day to correct with facts and a bit of humor. That is the only cure for fud poisoning.

If the best of the best minds from TMC did only that, fudsters would be overwhelmed and we could start to take control of the narrative which will have an impact on what Traditional media broadcasts. It's time.. the fud will ratchet up with the latest chaos around the sec/public/private debate. I emplore you to dive in and take no prisoners! Remember, facts and humor. Keep it light and it will spread.

Completely agree, get out there and fight or you enjoy watching the FUD spread like cancer.

 

[kbM3]

The problem that Elon wanted to solve is the FUD spread by shorts. I'm conviced Elon met with investors and they committed to helping solve this problem. For instance, they could make a pool that buys any stock below 320. If successful, the original problem is solved and there's no need to go private.

Stock price depression caused by shorts is a smaller part of the problem and will correct over the long run.

The main issue is the relentless FUD/disinformation campaign that, believe it or not, already affects demand.

Many have asked if I’m not scared to drive on Autopilot. The disinformation campaign is implanting in some minds that Teslas are dangerous vehicles with very low quality.

 

[sundaymorning]

Join the battle fighting FUD in yahoo folks, your account could use some help come Monday.

 

[Electroman]

Ok people. Tesla is staying public. Now is the time to take a stand against the FUD. I know that TMC is a nice safe place to validate your beliefs in Tesla and the mission, but it's a bit of an echo chamber. While the best, most knowledgeable Tesla minds debate endlessly how many cars Tesla will make and how big Tesla will get, there is a war going on for the hearts and minds of the unwitting who are begging duped into shorting Tesla and spreading lies by parking lot truthers and a constant flow of lies and made up facts.

Just ask 10 random people about Tesla and Elon. You will be shocked at how many echo fud. Social media is a powerful tool, it elected a President many of you despise, yet you huddle in the corner muttering how great Tesla is with little or no actual resistance. It's too bad that more people don't read TMC before deciding what to invest in, but they don't. It's too bad traditional media doesn't come to TMC before posting a dumbass article. They take the short cut off searching for $tsla on Twitter and only see a slew of hot garbage.

It is time to get off your arses and counter some fud. I'm only asking that your search for $tsla and find 10 lies per day to correct with facts and a bit of humor. That is the only cure for fud poisoning.

If the best of the best minds from TMC did only that, fudsters would be overwhelmed and we could start to take control of the narrative which will have an impact on what Traditional media broadcasts. It's time.. the fud will ratchet up with the latest chaos around the sec/public/private debate. I emplore you to dive in and take no prisoners! Remember, facts and humor. Keep it light and it will spread.

Agreed. I used to think that ignoring negative sentiment will make it just go away. Not true. It has to be countered vigorously. Otherwise slowly over time lies are accepted as facts.

 

[sundaymorning]

And so it begins.....

How Tesla's Suppliers May Have Killed Elon Musk's Private Dream

When a reporter called me on August 7, just minutes after Musk’s fateful tweet asking for a comment on a privatization deal, I was immediately skeptical. I was skeptical for the same reasons that I have long given when asked about the possibility of any other company launching a takeover of Tesla. Tesla is too expensive and offers too little of value for any other responsible corporate leader to even consider an acquisition. On top of that Elon Musk is too much of a liability.

For a company that builds so few vehicles, has only ever reported two profitable quarters (and just barely at that) and has no fundamental technological advantage that can’t be replicated, paying $50-80 billion would have been insane. The only thing the company has of distinct value is its brand, and while that will probably eventually get acquired, the products are not compelling to competitors.

For a company like Chanel to sell $20 purses for $5k would have been insane, all it has going for it is it’s brand. Duh. Brand matters.

 

[ggies07]

Elon 50 min ago:

 

[Mokuzai]

Many have asked if I’m not scared to drive on Autopilot

I was at a local cars and coffee event this morning and we had myself and one other Model S owner and one Model 3. Whenever this came up all three of us said we use Autopilot every day and explain how great it is when used responsibly.

More production/delivery = more owners = more general education to combat the FUD.

 

[MilosK]

Ignore

I tried to do my first ignore on Priscilla - but couldn’t find the ignore button. Where is it?

 

[Off Shore]

I tried to do my first ignore on Priscilla - but couldn’t find the ignore button. Where is it?

Click on the avatar--a list of options appears. Thank you for your contribution to the SNR.

 

[MilosK]

I see some loser posting about lawsuits etc
I personally lost well over a million dollars on August 7th after the $420 tweet having to sell 2020 and 2019 OTM calls and switching into ITM 2019s
Am I suing Elon Musk or Tesla?
No, never!
There is something called personal responsibility
If you can’t handle the heat don’t go into the kitchen
Too many losers in this world trying to make money off suing others
Totally disgusting

Totally agree. I’m small fry, lost just $20K, but wouldn’t dream of suing. I believe in the mission and the company, and besides, it was my choice to trade options.

 

[Foghat]

The power of viral word of mouth news from long term owners of stock and Tesla products is far more powerful then all the FUD.

You trust your family and friends over the media news every time.

Tesla was built on battling the doubters and naysayers.

Those who’ve come late to this ride don’t yet quite understand this and will lose a lot of money when they do.

Walking thru the haters to success is in Tesla family DNA.

“There is no other option.”

 

[mekberg]

That's a negative, good buddy. Even if TSLA goes to 1000 in 5 years, it's still not enough gain to do what I want to do if I'm only in stocks.

Risk/reward

 

[beachbum77]

Well, I’m not 20 anymore so I’ll admit this soft-pretzel twist hurts a bit my back - time for some ludicrous launches to put things back into place.

Before last night bombshell we were still trying to figure out the meaning of the last few days @$320 ceiling+floor. In retrospect, was it in any way related to this news (known by a few)?

Well since this was decided Thursday, I think we should all be told why they held off reporting their decision until 11 PM Friday.

 

[winfield100]

Is this shares held for clients?

unsure, just totaled up the 13 somethings of stocks, calls and puts

 

[beachbum77]

I generally stay away from short term predictions, but this time I’m exposed with some Sep 21 $345 calls and I’d like to hear from others on this board.

I was betting on the deal happening and on some news confirming it during the next week or two. The market obviously didn’t price in a deal, or else the price wouldn’t be where it is. If the Friday close at $322 reflects the equilibrium between the deal believers and the skeptics, now that the deal is dead, I struggle to see how the stock price can break to the upside. Elon’s decision will surely be painted as a retreat caused by an inability to find buyers. CNBC will run stories all day with guests reaffirming that he should find a COO and reiterating the last couple of months of Musk’s tweets together with the NYT “interview” to push the idea that he is exhausted or unstable and approaching a breaking point. The WSJ will surely be along with their take, as will the Times.

As a result of all this, my gut is telling me that it will gap down on open, around $300 or so, and it will swiftly drop lower from there to possibly break under $280, all this in the first 30 minutes. I have no idea what will happen after, but I am inclined to believe the stock will close down for the day.

My short term prediction skills are nothing to write home about, usually, which is why I’m asking. I’m only interested in the Monday action, and possibly the rest of the week. Purely short term only. For instance, projected Q3 production numbers will not be on traders’ mind, I would think, but feel free to disagree (just make sure you explain your thinking, please).

Thoughts?

Last Monday someone bought up thousands of Jan $50 puts triggering a 30% jump in the price to $1.65. It kicked in a sale for some of mine, and the price dropped back by Wednesday to $1.15. To me, that was a clue someone knew something was coming. I have seen several huge contract buys over the last six months (Apr and June expirations) that always result in big (double or more) returns.

Now these contracts do not mean the stock is expected to drop to $50. They have just become a popular way to cheaply trade the price swings. There are almost 70,000 open contracts. In 2018 we have seen the prices swing from around $.48 to $2.50 with lots of price swings in between just like last Monday. But if history this year is any indicator, we should be looking for a drop in SP next week. After replenishing my inventory on Thursday at $1.10 I placed new GTC sell orders at $1.60 and $2.00 on Friday.

On Wed August 8 I bought some Aug monthly $420 calls, fully expecting to see the 8-K come out with the going private details for the "funding secured" tweet. As we saw nothing was ever released, and my calls expired worthless. I thought the $420 number would get pushed higher. I thought 20% was too low a premium for the BoD to accept. If memory serves Dell ended up paying close to 40%?

Putting everything we know and have seen together, I expect to see a drop at the open. I think a lot of people over-bought/leveraged up hoping to cash in on the take-private action. Even a small drop may have them running for the exits to avoid margin calls. That could trigger a bigger sell-off. Just my 2 cents.

 

[JRP3]

Well since this was decided Thursday, I think we should all be told why they held off reporting their decision until 11 PM Friday.

We all know why.

 

[beachbum77]

I say stock trades higher on Monday on news ,staying public. Some institutional shareholders probably sold their stock based on notion they are not allow to hold stock on private company.

Completely backwards. Why would institutions sell in the $300's AHEAD of a $420 forced buyout? That makes absolutely no sense.