I generally stay away from short term predictions, but this time I’m exposed with some Sep 21 $345 calls and I’d like to hear from others on this board.
I was betting on the deal happening and on some news confirming it during the next week or two. The market obviously didn’t price in a deal, or else the price wouldn’t be where it is. If the Friday close at $322 reflects the equilibrium between the deal believers and the skeptics, now that the deal is dead, I struggle to see how the stock price can break to the upside. Elon’s decision will surely be painted as a retreat caused by an inability to find buyers. CNBC will run stories all day with guests reaffirming that he should find a COO and reiterating the last couple of months of Musk’s tweets together with the NYT “interview” to push the idea that he is exhausted or unstable and approaching a breaking point. The WSJ will surely be along with their take, as will the Times.
As a result of all this, my gut is telling me that it will gap down on open, around $300 or so, and it will swiftly drop lower from there to possibly break under $280, all this in the first 30 minutes. I have no idea what will happen after, but I am inclined to believe the stock will close down for the day.
My short term prediction skills are nothing to write home about, usually, which is why I’m asking. I’m only interested in the Monday action, and possibly the rest of the week. Purely short term only. For instance, projected Q3 production numbers will not be on traders’ mind, I would think, but feel free to disagree (just make sure you explain your thinking, please).
Thoughts?