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Very interesting analysis of Tesla motors by JP Morgan analysts...

Discussion in 'Tesla, Inc.' started by Fr23shjive, Dec 10, 2010.

  1. Fr23shjive

    Fr23shjive Member

    Sep 20, 2010
    Southern California

    A central competitive advantage is the low cost of Tesla’s battery pack, which should allow it to sell the Model S (2012 launch) at a reasonable price but with a near-normal (up to) 300 mile range, a combination other EVs have yet to deliver. We think Tesla Model S battery pack costs will be at/below ~$300/kWh, well below what we hear from other OEMs/battery makers ($500-600/kWh for 2011-2012 timeframe, and $375-500/kWh mid-decade target). A key source of Tesla’s cost advantage is its ability to apply commoditized small cylindrical lithium cells (used in consumer electronics) to a car via proprietary thermal/power management.

    • Model S is key. Launching in mid-2012, we expect the mid-size luxury segment Model S to raise TSLA's revenue from $0.1B (2010) to $1.8B by 2013. It will be sold in three battery pack variants ranging from 160 miles to 300 miles (post tax credit, $50-70k base MSRP est.). TSLA aims to sell 20k units in 2013, not an aggressive assumption, in our view, as it represents a 2% share of the BMW 5-series sedan segment. 2.8k refundable reservations exist now for the Model S. But competition should eventually arrive, a key reason we assume long-term EBIT margins of 8-12% vs guidance of 14-16%.

    • Small but different. (1) Efficiency: Tesla spent $100MM on Roadster development and plans to spend $0.4B on Model S, probably half of what other OEMs are spending on new PHEVs/EVs. (2) Distribution: Tesla will own, not franchise, its dealers, which should result in tighter brand equity/customer experience control. (3)EV Pure Focus: Tesla does not invest in anything but EV powertrains. This, coupled with an ability to attract top-notch vehicle engineering talent, should allow Tesla to address technical challenges better, cheaper, and faster than large global OEMs.

    • Set Dec-2011 price target of $25. Our 2013 EPS ($1.51; $1.15 taxed) assumes 18.5k Model S units and 8.3% EBIT margin (in line with luxury OEMs; guidance is ~15%). We get to $25 with DCF and p/sales (avg. of BYD, A123 and HEV), though we do not see positive EPS until 2013 and, as such, TSLA may tread water until Model S launch becomes more visible (1H.11) and/or reservations increase further.

    More info in the link.

    Mentions that the break even point for Tesla is 10k units. Pretty low number considering the amount of money Tesla has already invested.

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