- Gorgeous team breadth and depth. Hired for ability to get it done within a well-aligned culture, not any other criteria. (Well, one exception).
- The overall scale of the global energy transformation was very much in line with the same models I've built, giving much the same results. (I put more of my results on the Resource Angle thread) :
The Resource Angle . Lovely to see that Tesla is still aiming for it. Nice to see that they come up with the same financial answer I do, i.e. winding down the fossil economy ongoing costs pays for the buildout of the renewable economy.
- (Anybody fancy a 10-year short on fossils ? 20-year ? How are pension funds feeling ? They have no excuse for not paying attention to this stuff now)
- Musk clearly doesn't consider V2G to be very beneficial. I think the same way. Nevertheless grudgingly it will get done, one day, perhaps. Almost certainly not as a retrofit. Most likely only for locations with a Tesla Powerwall as a minimum.
- Look at the bulk of that inductive charging pad in the sneak preview shot (the one alongside the shot of the Tesla cafe, with the red car in a garage). That is a clear signal that at present this could only be considered as a unidirectional link. Again another reason not to rush on V2G.
- PMG with sufficient torque that is not rare earth neos ? Tell me more. Something was in that slot. Is this the return of Ferrite2 ? Or what ?
- Gen 3 will be a 2/Z at least, because it is clear that it will have multiple models off the common manufacturing platform. Loads of good stuff about the design target for Gen 3. Perfect.
- They can't release a 2/Z now because they are cell-supply-limited. The extra 4680 capacity coming out of the Austin lines has to feed the progressive ramp of the Y there. But phew at least they are now on DBE, confirmed. The 4680 ramp is proceeding, not great, but not trainwreck bad either. The extra LFP coming out of China needs to feed the ramp of Berlin. And by late 2023 they need sufficient additional 4680 capacity to feed the ramp of the Cybertruck. And the ramp of Sparks will feed the Semi ramp, and the Megapack ramp (because otherwise they are nolonger a serious player in utility, and they've got to stay with the market). So there is no spare cell capacity for a 2/Z. So this year 2023 they are cell-constrained, hence only the blurt target of 2m. It is still all about cells.
- Cell material doesn't seem to be a huge concern. Enough of a concern that they are reaching through and doing work. But under control. Phew.
- It is possible that Monterrey will be the first factory to go with 2/Z, at least that's my guess. That gives 18-months from now for the cell supply to get just about enough ahead of the coming demand so as to allow for initial production of the 2/Z. I suspect we'll get leaks starting in about 6-months, then perhaps a reveal in 9-months. So first production during Q4-2024.
- Is paint control now good enough to paint separately and still get a match ? Or are they going unpainted ? (
@unk45 ?)
- Tesla Energy as a service will, like insurance, be a very slow and progressive and hugely patchy build out. For much the same reasons - regulatory compliance and an abundance of caution.
- Stationary storage is going to be big, but I don't need convincing on the scale aspect of that. However no special sauce observed that is not available in the other products in the market. So no reason to think margins will be anything particularly special. Demand far greater than supply - again I don't need telling that - everyone outside USA who wants a Powerwall is well aware.
I've given up and gone SolarEdge (in fact we mount 30kWh today, hopefully and go live. The corresponding solar went live a couple months ago but we've all been too busy to do the storage until today). So Tesla will in due course need to find a way to play nicely with my SolarEdge storage or I ain't going to be a Tesla Energy customer. (So Daily Energy News will likely be late today, prob this evening).
- Lots of good info on Supercharger network. I need to mine the data on those slides a bit to get some calibration into my models.
- Relentless focus on driving down cost whilst increasing performance, both internally and externally. I love it. Means FCF pays for the build-out.
- FSD still on track, but no timeline. No HW4 mention, or did I miss that ?
- Optimus bot making seemingly good progress. That will indeed be very big one day.
- WTF was that lady on about.
- Now time for me to go install some storage
