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The Resource Angle

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Of interest to all in this thread: BMR YEARBOOK - Battery Materials Review Ltd

(That should link to a page where you can download their Battery Materials year in review).
Thank you. That's a useful read, well worth the time. I don't agree with everything they draw from their numbers, but very helpful.

 
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ABML had an interesting day, at one point up over 30%, closed up 15.84%, I have no idea why.
This must have been leaked yesterday:

 
More news, ABML acquiring an existing lead acid battery recycling plant.

 
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More news, ABML acquiring an existing lead acid battery recycling plant.


I sold my ABML a few months ago. I looked and it looks like it's currently cheaper than when I sold it. It might be time to jump back in...
 
I sold my ABML a few months ago. I looked and it looks like it's currently cheaper than when I sold it. It might be time to jump back in...
I sold mine in my regular account near the end of last year for tax loss then bought it back in January. Sold half yesterday figuring the recent bump would be short lived and I should be able to buy it back substantially lower in a week or two.
 
This video was linked by Limiting Factor on Twitter.


['China's lithium carbonate spot price has fallen over 30% in the past few months. But a number like this only shows part of the picture. Expert Analyst Matt Fernley outlines supply, demand, Tesla Investor Day 2023 and much more in this deep dive into industry. ']

The video includes some critical commentary about Elon's comments on Lithium. The fact that the experts see an under investment in Lithium mining.
They are also questioning the volumes from the Tesla Lithium refinery based on the contracts Tesla has negotiated and dubious / dismissive about the Lithium Clay extraction process.

Their views are strongly based on how the mining industry currently operates, they want to see more investment in mines based on traditional proven processes.

The interesting perspective was that mining is the first step in concentrating minerals, it isn't just a matter of digging stuff up that stuff needs to be up scaled to a reasonable yield.

I'm 50/50 on this topic, there is some merit in what they say, but they are suggesting that Elon has only done a very shallow dive into the Lithium resource and doesn't understand that many lower grade resources are currently uneconomic.

IMO lower grade resources become more economic all the time, not just because the price increases, but because extraction and concentrating become more efficient.

This video covers the patent for Tesla's lithium clay extraction process:-

IMO there is little doubt about whether the process works, the doubts are about yield and economics and the resulting end cost, relative to just purchasing lithium from miners. The price of a mined material is highly dependent on the supply/demand balance and can sometimes follow boom and bust cycles.

I interpret Tesla's sourcing of Lithium for the Texas refinery as a kind of "risk management" strategy, if some mines are delayed others will deliver. Volumes can always be increased if a supplier proves that they are reliable and a good grade. Tesla doesn't so far have an apparent "flow sheet" mentality and is perhaps less concerned about variations in the composition of ores than those with a more traditional view.

I interpret the lack of action on Lithium Clay as one of 2 things.
  1. The mine is grinding through the permitting process in a "low key' way. More chance of permits if "low key".
  2. Tesla doesn't think the economics of Lithium Clay currently stack up compared to the alternatives.
After doing a deep dive on resources for Master Plan 3, I'm sure Elon understands the economics of Lithium mining and the time to ramp up additional mining.
 
When I re-watched the Q&A section of the Investor Day video I found that Elon and Drew provided very good answers on the Cathode Plant and the Lithium Refinery.

Both the Cathode Plant and the Lithium Refinery are being built because there is currently not a suitable facility in North America.

Tesla is trying novel "first principles" approaches but is working actively with suppliers and intends to share the knowledge gained with suppliers, in the hope that suppliers (or others) may choose to build their own facilities.

In the case of the Lithium Refinery, using ores from 3 different mines makes sense, because they may need to tweak the process slightly for each ore body. They can then tell the miner "here is how to build a refinery for your ore".

If all 3 miners build their own refinery, then Tesla can work with other miners to try and refine the process for their ore.

Odiously they are not going to throw away the cathode plant or the refinery, but they are intended to be supplemental to external suppliers, not provide 100% of Tesla's needs.

Similarly with the clay mining process Tesla is still working on it but if they believe it is viable they will probably build a "proof of concept" mine. A bucket of clay isn't a proof of concept, a dump truck load of clay is closer to a proof of concept.

If others scale Lithium mining earlier, or if someone else develops a good clay mining process, Tesla may shelve the clay mining project.

Why doesn't Tesla want to get into mining and refining in a bigger way?

IMO that could be because building factories to make cars, batteries and other products is a better way to spend capex.
 
Tesla has tapped China's Ningbo Ronbay New Energy and Suzhou Dongshan Precision Manufacturing to help trim materials costs as it ramps up production of 4680 battery cells in the United States, according to the sources, who asked not to be named.
[...]
Tesla plans to use a cathode with more than 90% nickel in the next generation of 4680 cells, two sources said. L&F is expected to be one of the suppliers of that high-nickel cathode, another source said.

 
MP keeps getting pushed down, probably because of dropping Nd pricing, also because of Tesla Investor Day announcement of using rare earth free magnets. I expect most motors will still use rare earth magnets for quite a while and expect increasing demand for other rare earth uses going forward.
 
Liontown Resources jumped 69% on rejected takeover news, lifting some other lithium stocks with it.

 
Pure energy minerals got permits approved for construction and operation of their direct lithium pilot plant:
 
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