Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

just sell the SC's themselves (with caveats), let them worry about the locations. Like

I guarantee that won't happen. That would be like handing over the keys to your house to your worst enemy. Remember the part where Elon said 'instead of expanding their network, they're going to work on improving the reliability'?

Well, selling off the Supercharger network would insure that it becomes unusable. Because big carbon will be the buyer, and that's what they want more than anything. The Supercharger network is an existential risk to them.

 

[2daMoon]

Again to you that won't happen. That would be like handing over the keys to your house to your worst enemy. Remember the part where Elon said instead of expanding their network, they're going to work on improving the reliability? Well, selling off the network insurers that it'll stop working. Because big carbon will be the buyer.

You may have misunderstood what @wipster meant.

I took it to mean more like Tesla would operate the network and provide service to the Superchargers, under contract, but would sell (or contract) the physical Superchargers to third parties who deal with site choice, permitting, and connection concerns.

Much like Megapacks are sold with ongoing revenue from service contracts.

 

[FreqFlyer]

When did Fremont get its last giga-casting machine? Remember seeing permits for the installation of one. Some thought it was for Model 3 Highland, but it did not get castings like the Model Y.

Tesla Opts for Current Casting Method in Upcoming Affordable Models

Tesla has reportedly decided to stick with its single front and rear castings for its more affordable cars coming next year, moving away from the company’s initial plans for its gigacasting project. The gigacasting process, […]

driveteslacanada.ca

 

[Knightshade]

I don't have that, but there is this X post from a person in the charging industry with lots of contacts at Tesla:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1785456585977798720

FWIW same poster had some other relevant things:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1786119457573589193

https://twitter.com/x/status/1785751866019598774

https://twitter.com/x/status/1785556450888012241

https://twitter.com/x/status/1785524406992666880

he also reposted this which is interesting—I’d forgotten that in the 2018 layoffs/re-org Elon specifically called out they’re doing this “so that we never have to do this again”
https://twitter.com/Speenuh/status/1785891608631685331

 

[hobbes]

Meanwhile, back in the world of useful information:
from https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/01/business/china-electric-vehicles.html

"China is also moving ahead with the technology and regulations for self-driving cars. The authorities approved data security arrangements this week for more capable autonomous vehicles. They approved cars from Tesla, the American electric vehicle company that also builds and sells cars in China, as well as five Chinese manufacturers, including BYD, Tesla’s principal global rival, and Nio, a longtime player in China’s auto sector.

The approvals show the Chinese government’s eagerness to push the development of self-driving vehicles, which are widely seen as central to future competitiveness in the car industry. The technology is more compatible with battery electric cars than with plug-in hybrids or gasoline-powered cars, and Chinese companies are trying to catch up with Tesla, the leader in these systems."

NYT has often been critized here to be anti-Tesla, but in this article (while it is mostly quite superficial) they at least get Tesla´s role in self driving tech right:

The technology is more compatible with battery electric cars than with plug-in hybrids or gasoline-powered cars, and Chinese companies are trying to catch up with Tesla, the leader in these systems.

 

[Knightshade]

Remember the part where Elon said instead of expanding their network, they're going to work on improving the reliability?

Yeah that was pretty weird given uptime is already 99.95%

THERE'S your march of 9s.

Source for that uptime figure:

Loading…

www.tesla.com

 

[Krugerrand]

But you admit he's made mistakes in the past. Is it possible this is one?

How would I know? I don’t speculate one way or another. I wait and see.

I'm asking the person defending Elons decision here, and who specifically replied to my previous post about the topic. If your answer is "I trust Elon no matter what argument is presented otherwise" that's entirely your choice of course.

I’m not defending him. I’m ACCEPTING his decisions and actions as the person who knows the most and is best suited to operate his business. When you’re running Tesla and have proven your talents for such, then and only then will I care what you have to say on the matter. Or anyone else. I’m happy to hear facts, but the rest is rubbish.

I know it’s a foreign concept to so many to not immediately jump to conclusions, especially negative ones.

ok, cool... if I'm wrong about you meaning FSD and RT- which seems to be what Elon explicitly said it means in the last call- what is it, and why do you believe ditching future larger charging revenue is a good path toward it?

I simply was giving you a list of possibilities you hadn’t bothered to consider. Holes in your theory if you will.

I don’t believe he’s ‘ditching’ the SC Network. I believe he’s doing what he said. Improving usage, increasing chargers per locale, and then growing it more judiciously - as in possibly filling in gaps, adding more in growing regions/countries etc…

I mean, you told us


So what source do you mean by that, and what model do you have behind it?

Answered

You're writing an awful lot about a thing you keep insisting you don't care about.

Gee, someone asks a question it typically means they’re looking for answer. Is that not your goal here? Are you just asking questions so you can be a jerk and respond as above?

So you think it's impossible the move is a mistake, and that it 100% for sure must be an actual reason we just aren't privy to?

I have no opinion if it’s a mistake or not. Of course there’s a reason for his actions. I’ve no idea if anyone here has yet read his mind correctly.

That is an entirely binary thing in your mind?

People always have a reason for everything they say and do, whether they’re aware of it or not.

Why?

They've been hugely successful at it, for well over a decade now. At a profit. With no sign any of that was changing or that anyone else was doing it half as well.

I'm not even saying not to make wholesale changes in the department if he thought it needed to change direction-- but wholesale firing of the entire group, right in the middle of OEMs transitioning to rely on the system... and numerous reports of actual disruption of work and communication with existing in-progress and permitted supercharger projects because of the no-notice cleanout... How can you think THAT is unassailably the correct way to do it?

How can you think it might not be exactly the correct way to do it? Because you’ve never done it? Because nobody else does it that way? Because you know something he doesn’t know? Because you’re incapable of understanding?

I have done things differently than most in my chosen field for 40 years. People seek me out now because I’m not the status quo. I think different, I do different, and I get results. This way of being has allowed me to understand and accept Elon’s actions in a way most people can’t even fathom.

You’re absolutely incredulous that he could fire an entire department and it could be the right call. Even though you have no idea what those 500 may have done poorly as a group. But you’ll likely insist to your grave that it was the wrong decision to let them all go.

Me. Meh.

 

[Krugerrand]

Please don’t feed the trolls cats. I have one member on ignore. You have better wrongs to right on the internet.

I disagree. We were all told to not talk about the ignore feature and all that is associated with it.

I also disagree that you’ve inserted yourself in a conversation, where he’s specifically asked me questions, and that you’re not a part of with the intent to try and insult me. You didn’t by the way.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Each day is more scrolling to get the information from the noise

And how many of these trolls did you report today? Or yesterday? Be the change you want to see in the world.

 

[Ellec]

And how many of these trolls did you report today? Or yesterday? Be the change you want to see in the world.

Too much change might make these forums less busy which might have an effect on content generation which could impact TMC forums ad revenue, hence don’t talk about a feature that is part of the forum or use a feature that shortcuts responses.

To have these features then warn people they will be banned if they use them is hilarious.

 

[Linkmeup]

are we trying to trash this investor forum because of the death of a forum member due to trading on TSLA?

This forum has gotten pretty troll-y in recent months and I'm wondering if there's a concerted effort to end it due to that or other reasons that aren't widely known by forum members.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Another post from 2 years ago that I cannot quote as that thread was locked:


I get the feeling that this is coming true for the rountable thread. I don't mind bears who are here to debate. But I do recognize the change that is happening, they are not here to debate, they are here to cause chaos by debating. That what caused James Douma to leave the Autopilot Subforum. Many other posters left for the same reasons. That rot has slowly been spreading and now this thread is showing signs of the same rot. Many posters here are feeling the same.

Each day is more scrolling to get the information from the noise. I don't even bother reading posts with few upvotes. I am starting to feel that the time of this community being amazing is coming to an end. Maybe time to just watch electrified and the people I follow on X. Too bad, I have really enjoyed this forum and learnt a lot here!

I agree. I've got thumb RSI scrolling through "plausibly deniable" bad faith discussions.

I'm not accusing anyone of anything but I would like to link some resources for people that are easily troll baited. Please read, take 5 deep breaths and gather your thoughts before responding to items you disagree with. Winning is not outwitting bad faith actors, it's realising what they are doing and not exacerbating their responses.

10 Effective Tactics to Defeat Internet Trolls
Disinformation Part 1: How Trolls Control an Internet Forum - WhoWhatWhy

 

[Artful Dodger]

OT: welcome back, @SpaceCash Hope u r well!

 

[Buckminster]

AAPL up on strong China revenue. Might rub off on TSLA.

 

[Opus BC fan]

Respectfully, Mods please be aware.

 

[CorneliusXX]

There's been a lot of speculation around Tesla pivoting hard to AI/FSD/RoboTaxi over the last few weeks. It feels more risky because dumb EVs have done us very well over the last few years, but after some soul searching I think it's the right thing to do to swing for the fences to make a product that is seriously differentiated and hard to copy.

Look at what China is pumping out at $20k already. There's no avenue for wide margins with dumb EVs. Avoiding a race to the bottom on manufacturing costs is a good idea.

 

[MartinAustin]

TROLL MANAGER
Guys, give me a situation report.

TROLL #1
I only got three people to engage
me in discussions today. Will
try to do better!

TROLL #2
I got seven people to engage me
today, including two posters who
really got aggravated and wrote a
lot.

TROLL SCIENTIST
This is excellent, we are seeing
a 7% reduction in the usefulness
of the forum. Our models indicate
we will soon see useful posts
decline, and regular posters log in less.

TROLL MANAGER
Good, our clients are paying
us handsome bonuses for this
effort.​

 

[Knightshade]

How would I know? I don’t speculate one way or another. I wait and see.

But you did speculate.

You speculated that because Elon knows more his decisions must be right.

I asked if it's possible he's wrong and you seem incapable of even admitting that's possible

I’m not defending him.

You really, really, are.

Hard.

I’m ACCEPTING his decisions and actions as the person who knows the most and is best suited to operate his business. When you’re running Tesla and have proven your talents for such, then and only then will I care what you have to say on the matter.

This is at least your third wall of text on something you claim you don't care about



QUOTE="Krugerrand, post: 8235757, member: 10007"]
I know it’s a foreign concept to so many to not immediately jump to conclusions[/QUOTE]

Like your conclusion this must be a correct decision because Elon made it?

I simply was giving you a list of possibilities you hadn’t bothered to consider. Holes in your theory if you will.

But...you didn't.

At all.

You said new revenue, better, revenue streams coming.

I replied discussing RT and FSD as those streams.

You then suggested I was wrong because you hadn't specified WHAT new revenue streams.

So I asked what you did mean.

Give your continued non-answer one can only conclude either:

I was right in the first place- you DID mean RT/FSD-- but you didn't like the rebuttal of that point so pretended you meant something else
or
You didn't mean anything at all and won't admit it.

I have no opinion if it’s a mistake or not.

On the contrary you seem to have a VERY CLEAR opinion that it isn't one-- but when asked why you're unable to offer anything besides "I trust Elon"

Again that's a perfectly valid answer- but at least own it.

How can you think it might not be exactly the correct way to do it? Because you’ve never done it? Because nobody else does it that way? Because you know something he doesn’t know? Because you’re incapable of understanding?

Because I understand that all humans make mistakes. So when a human makes a puzzling decision it's possible that decision is a mistake.

You on the other hand seem incapable of even considering Elon is making a mistake.

You’re absolutely incredulous that he could fire an entire department and it could be the right call. Even though you have no idea what those 500 may have done poorly as a group.

If Tesla hired a 500 person team, and all of them had so little value and institutional knowledge, even after many had been there years and years, that there was no value in retaining ANY of them-- not even to train a replacement-- then yes I'm pretty incredulous that happened.

Do you think Tesla has been so badly mismanged at the highest levels that entire teams of hundreds of people are 100% filled with 0 value employees?


Far MORE likely to explain this- as others have suggested-- and as supported from what we know about Elon from Issacsons book- the manager was dragging their feet about making the 10% staff reductions, so Elon decided to teach that manager a lesson by firing all 500 people in the group without regard to who they were, what they did, or how much Tesla might miss anything they were doing-- that's a tomorrow problem. Teaching the manager a lesson-- and scaring all the other managers into line- is todays problem.

 

[FreqFlyer]

AAPL up on strong China revenue. Might rub off on TSLA.

This may have something to do with the rise.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/02/apple-aapl-earnings-report-q2-2024.html

Bad use of a once 100-billion dollar stockpile.

 

[EVNow]

Yeah that was pretty weird given uptime is already 99.95%

THERE'S your march of 9s.

Source for that uptime figure:

Loading…

www.tesla.com

Yeh ... I really don't get this move. It really looks like a not well thought through move. It's like when Elon decided to remove all sales and reinstated after a week (in 2019). Kind of a knee jerk reaction to a difficult market situation?