Recent content by NakedLong

I always considered myself a super bull on Tesla, but the stock has gone up considerably faster than myself and pretty much everyone else imagined. I have several thoughts around this topic, but my general idea is that we have a massive conservative bias with our Tesla predictions. Take a look...

I guess I should be clearer too. A lot of Japanese know an EV revolution is coming, but they are powerless or unwilling to try to influence the direction of Toyota/Honda/Nissan. I imagine there are something like 15 levels of managers between the engineers and the CEO. The incentives of...

What is your prediction for Japanese auto then? I guess I see even VW failing for the most part, and they are somewhat leaders in ICE companies transitioning to EVs. So for me, I would expect Japanese auto to fail too, but they are more insulated on the domestic demand side imo. I have kept...

This was the article talking about ~10% and 89%: The Japanese Automotive Industry - Japan Industry News > In fact, automotive related manufacturing takes up 89 percent of the country’s largest manufacturing sector, the transportation machinery industry. Automotive components and vehicles...

I have been thinking a lot lately of the Japanese automakers and how they will fare. I am quite familiar with Japan, having went to school there, and with Japanese relatives. Also I was listening to this amazing podcast about WW2 and the Japanese which I know Grimes and Elon listened to...

Ah yeah - I just rechecked and iphone revenue has gone up a lot since I last checked. U.S. iPhone Users Spent An Average of $100 on Apps in 2019, Up 27% from 2018 About 100 per device according to this. 50 million devices is not a lot in the context of smartphones (And it will take 5+ years to...

Tires? Yes - probably already possible via service right? Coffee/meals? Doubtful Parking, hotels, car wash? No Generally speaking, while Elon is in charge, I highly doubt the screen is going to be monitized for upselling... it's not customer/product centric, with the exception of car related...

IMO this is a misconception. Average iPhone app revenue is about $10 a year per phone. With 1 million Teslas, that's 10 million a year. With 10 million Teslas, that's 100 million. Obviously this is nothing. This is the reason Tesla is in no rush to make an app store. For comparison there are...

Don't see it as an argument so much as a constructive debate - I have seen your other posts and learnt from them... I think by watching AlphaZero you can tell that weak AI can have massively better intuition than humans in the realm of chess... you can extrapolate this to self-driving. Tesla's...

You are presenting a false equivalence fallacy here. Pierre, has a university degree in computer science, but worked his life as an auto analyst... he has little to no exposure to cutting edge AI. Then there is Lex Fridman, who is an enthusiastic albeit weak AI researcher, with a bunch of biases...

Regarding AI and FSD I think he has absolutely no idea though... like most analysts. Let's summarise his points and then break them down to show how wrong he is: > He starts with saying AI is not artificial intelligence, it is artificial stupidity, and his basic premise is that AI will not be...

I find it hard to disagree with much from CP, though I do have a few small disagreements. I totally agree with him regarding Corona though, with the deaths/infected ratio being the main question, and the amount of uncertainty around the unreported infected. The deaths number is most likely...

I really like Chamath Palihapitiya but this interview was so ****ing terrible - they hardly let him speak, so I'll summarise so you don't have to listen to the crap: * CP is looking to hedge vs Corona - thinks it could be bad, or just another flu like thing - depending on denominator of...

I would aim 95% blame at driver, 5% at failed crash attenuator/faded road markings/fallen over signs cones, 0% at Tesla - they are doing their best to make car safe as fast as possible, and autopilot already much safer. Also 0% at phones. You can also be distracted by using a dildo in a car...

What about passengers, what about trains and buses... I think you and NTSB need to think things through a bit first :p