Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Xepa777]

I BET MORE THAN ANYTHING that after "Battery Day" the next big investor day will be "Energy Day."

Tesla Virtual Power Plant in South Australia Increases FCAS Capacity to 10MW

This is when Tesla is going to really go into overdrive on advertising its energy offerings for B2B/B2C offerings.

 

[Jack6591]

Mid-December at best according to Elon, which is 50% further out than that. If everything goes right. What do you think the chance of that is?

Since his last "6-10 weeks" four weeks before it became still 6-10 weeks but with some extra information about some alpha testers getting it earlier. That's what we in the business call a day for day slip. Elon's record with predicting the release of autopilot software is dismal, and it doesn't seem to be getting better. Maybe March? Yeah, I find that if I keep my expectations in this area really, really low that I don't get too disappointed.

“Progress disappoints in a short run, and surprises in a long run"

Jim Keller

At some point, you will be surprised.

 

[woof]

Something tells me I'm leaving a lot of money on the table. . .

While I hate to admit it, be like my feline nemesis...don't learn the basket weaving. Just hold on tight, to what you've got.

So you've left something on the table...at least it'll still be there when you get back!

 

[CaliBear1]

My god man, how could you forget the crown jewel of the Musk Empire?!

I couldn't agree more! Transportation (Cars, Truck, SUV, Semi and Hyperloop/Boring Company) , Energy (Solar, Battery, SC Charging Network, AutoBidder), Autonomy (FSD), Engineering/Manufacturing (Gigafactory, alloy metals) and potential partnerships and rumors: SpaceX, Starlink, Neuralink, HVAC, Car Insurance, flame throwers. What other company has a better roadmap for the next 5-10 years?

Anyone got a better list/site than what I just made? It would be interesting to see everything that Tesla has on their roadmap/rumors. Dang, now I gotta find some more dry powder and get some more shares on Monday.

 

[willow_hiller]

Reddit user has found evidence of work on a "Subscribe" tab in the "Upgrades" section of the Tesla app: Did some reverse engineering on the app and Tesla looks to be preparing for subscriptions? : teslamotors

Could just before managing premium connectivity, but could also be laying the groundwork for FSD subscription service.

 

[StealthP3D]

BTW, how does EAP impact resale(Carvana etc)or trade in value? I want to replace my model 3 with a model Y soon. I will not be using any of the EAP features very much at all so this would be more to explore the features to get a better understanding of the future of autonomy as an investor.

Anybody have thoughts?

Extended Autopilot without FSD won't add much resale value but it would be hard to quantify the exact amount since it has only been sold for specific periods. When it comes time to sell your Model Y there is a very good chance that FSD will be worth many multiples of what EAP will add (even if it's not approved by regulators yet) because Tesla will continue to raise the price. If it IS approved by then you would have made a HUGE economic mistake to not buy it when it was much cheaper.

And, as a TSLA investor you are obligated to buy FSD with any new vehicle purchase!

 

[Singuy]

Trump approved Tik Toc to be run by Oracle/Walmart. Monday's macros should be positive.

 

[StealthP3D]

Reddit user has found evidence of work on a "Subscribe" tab in the "Upgrades" section of the Tesla app: Did some reverse engineering on the app and Tesla looks to be preparing for subscriptions? : teslamotors

Could just before managing premium connectivity, but could also be laying the groundwork for FSD subscription service.

Tesla has a lot of irons in the fire but one of the biggest untapped sources of revenue is that big center screen staring hundreds of thousands of Tesla owners in the face every day. And the number is growing on a daily basis. This is the kind of revenue that most Wall Street types would get excited about and would be relatively easy to implement. Regulatory credits? Naw. Selling software and services direct to owners while they wait to pick up their kids or spouse? Oh yeah! This is one of many catalysts that could propel TSLA to record highs when their customer base reaches critical mass.

Am I excited about it? As a Tesla owner, no, not really. As a Tesla investor? Oh yeah!

 

[kengchang]

Without further context or information it's neither bullish nor bearish (and could potentially be both to different aspects of the business)

Powerwall availability had been garbage for at least a couple of years now because the energy business was being cell-starved by the car business.

It'd bad if the company is unable to fill, and in the long run loses, orders from its energy business due to lack of cells.

It's good that vehicle demand remains high enough to be eating cell supply.

it's bad if the company is after a couple years of this problem continually unable to scale production to resolve it (in fact the backlog has gotten worse)

it's good if the backlog has gotten worse because they're soon to switch to new cell production that solves the scaling problem.

I suspect we'll have a better idea of the details Tuesday afternoon though

Powerwall allocation are going to customer who is installing solar+powerwall at the same time. If you want to get Powerwall alone, be prepared to wait.

 

[Buckminster]

Still, phones are not relevant. See https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1305570412349321216.

Smartwatches & phones are yesterday’s technology, Neuralinks are the future.

I'm fully into all things Neuralink. However even I have to admit that are likely more than a few Trillion to be made in phones etc. before we all replace our craniums.

 

[Paul_SF]

https://twitter.com/hiromichimizuno/status/1307549334053896192?s=21

 

[Buckminster]

2 more sleeps.

 

[AudubonB]

2 more sleeps.

You misspelled “Entire TMC Investment Community”.

 

[NakedLong]

Tesla has a lot of irons in the fire but one of the biggest untapped sources of revenue is that big center screen staring hundreds of thousands of Tesla owners in the face every day. And the number is growing on a daily basis. This is the kind of revenue that most Wall Street types would get excited about and would be relatively easy to implement. Regulatory credits? Naw. Selling software and services direct to owners while they wait to pick up their kids or spouse? Oh yeah! This is one of many catalysts that could propel TSLA to record highs when their customer base reaches critical mass.

Am I excited about it? As a Tesla owner, no, not really. As a Tesla investor? Oh yeah!

IMO this is a misconception.

Average iPhone app revenue is about $10 a year per phone.
With 1 million Teslas, that's 10 million a year.
With 10 million Teslas, that's 100 million.

Obviously this is nothing. This is the reason Tesla is in no rush to make an app store.

For comparison there are something like 3-4 billion smartphones and only 1 million Teslas. Or 3500 times more phones than Tesla's.

The software profit is all about FSD and high value software like performance upgrades. Not selling apps/games.

Also, it is not easy to implement. Most likely requires a total rewrite of their OS and pushing complexity 3 orders of magnitude.

In summary... Tesla app store will not happen for quite some time, and revenue will be insignificant.

 

[amolina]

Extremely reasonable analysis by Limiting factor. Super great stuff.

 

[amolina]

IMO this is a misconception.

Average iPhone app revenue is about $10 a year per phone.
With 1 million Teslas, that's 10 million a year.
With 10 million Teslas, that's 100 million.

Obviously this is nothing. This is the reason Tesla is in no rush to make an app store.

For comparison there are something like 3-4 billion smartphones and only 1 million Teslas. Or 3500 times more phones than Tesla's.

The software profit is all about FSD and high value software like performance upgrades. Not selling apps/games.

Also, it is not easy to implement. Most likely requires a total rewrite of their OS and pushing complexity 3 orders of magnitude.

In summary... Tesla app store will not happen for quite some time, and revenue will be insignificant.

I agree. It will require some time before the Tesla app store is released. Fleet size has not reached the critical levels yet. Of the utmost importance are the security concerns. No random app should be able to hijack functions in your car. Tesla will have to provide the ecosystem/infrastructure with security as the highest importance. If somebody hijacks your phone, sure it's bad, however, if someone hijacks your car, it's a matter of life and death. This Security layer on the Tesla SDK is where most of the effort is going to go.

However, I do see Tesla reaching much much more than 10$ revenue per car from the Tesla app store. In the long term, it could reach 100$ a year. It is completely dwarfed by the FSD option of 100k a year. So well, no point focusing on Tesla app store at the moment.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Some weekend ramblings that may or may not be completely off base:

I so often see comments (not here) that TSLA is overrated, too high, in a bubble etc., and it just doesn't make sense to me. Neither does setting a price at which you'll cash out in X months or years. There's no way to know how high the SP will go either short term or long term. Back in December we were talking about if we breached 420, what would the next level be? Would it go below 400 again, or maybe even go up to 5-600 before hitting a range??!

Sure, fundamentals matter to a stock price, but I've been following TSLA for a few years now, and it seems pretty random how much those fundamentals have influenced the SP. Mass media seems to be able to set the sentiment without regard for the actual results, and market makers march to their own rhythm, which has nothing to do with valuing a company fairly and everything to do with making money here and now. Macros (of course) and general sentiment about the stock also seem to have much more importance than the actual fundamentals. During the run-up r/wallstreetbets was in quite a hysteria as regards TSLA (well, more than usual) and there was very little discussion about the fundamentals, aside from "Ford sells X million cars per year" and "Tesla is a tech company". Everybody was trading as a reaction to the SP running up, betting on how much longer the run could go on. Very few people are actually interested in following Tesla, and instead relies on headlines, and we all know how informative those are. Then there's analysts... I think 500 monkeys typing randomly on a keyboard would be able to beat the average analyst.

So, the fundamentals matter, but the way from fundamentals --> stock price goes through 117 jumps and hoops, and the end result has very little relation to those fundamentals.

I have no idea when I will sell, and what the stock price might be then, but I am continuously looking for how much growth there's left in Tesla. And I think most here will agree that the growth has only just started. Tesla is out of the survival phase, and we have just started on the next, and it's going to be so incredibly exciting. It's going to be a long, long while before I touch my shares. On the other hand, I won't invest in Apple. I do think it'll grow - stonks only go up - but I just can't see where their growth is. Maybe they pull their finger out of a certain place and start doing something meaningful, but so far it looks like they're just meandering about the place, with no goal in sight.

Edit: this is mostly a result of various articles on investing and comments on r/investing (don't bother going there) and the like, where you'll get "BUT THE P/E RATIO!!!" thrown in your face.

The stock market gyrations and analysts assessments make no logical sense. I know a lot more about Tesla than most analysts who are publicised.

This helps me:-
Benjamin Graham — 'In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.'

I'm in for a long time, I'll just sell when I have to or when I think Tesla have lost their way. I'm hoping we get dividends at some point so I never have to sell shares. Otherwise, I'll sell shares when I need to and hope I don't ever sell all of them.

 

[UkNorthampton]

There are 3 closely related problems:-

1. Building, selling and supporting completive EVs. (avoiding paying for regulatory credits)
2. Making a reasonable margin on EVs.. while doing 1. above.
3. Having sufficient Battery Pack volumes to get to scale which makes 1. & 2. above easier.

Some ideal of Tesla's plans post Battery Day can be cleaned from the construction progress at Shanghai, Berlin and Texas.

Compare that to Shanghai phase 1... the level of ambition has stepped up as Battery Pack supply is a solved problem....

Now compare some legacy OEMs to Tesla, if their ambition is limited to avoiding paying regulatory credits, and avoiding a risk all in bet on EVs,,,, they have a conservative, modest, low volume plan, and for them Battery Pack supply is far from a solved problem...
Already they are making some compromises and adjusting their plans as they can't get cells and packs in the volumes they ideally would like. Suppliers are probably telling them better prices are possible with firm orders for higher volumes, but to date their EVs don't always sell well and the dealerships are often reluctant to sell them...

Legacy OEMs will find it easer to make a margin in EVs, if they go "all in" and fully commit to volume production.
Soon there will be no choice as ICE will become increasingly hard to sell.

As you say competing with Tesla on cost, range, performance and software will be daunting.. competing with Tesla on production volumes, speed of ramp, and innovation close to impossible.

In some ways Battery Day looks like the end product of 5-10 years hard work, Tesla has a comprehensive plan for all aspects including scaling production volumes, Tesla will have plenty of headroom to make good margins and slowly cut prices.

If I had sum up my expectations for Battery Day up in one word, that word is "Comprehensive".

Best bet for a legacy car company is to... build EV vans.

Or some other market segment. Set up a subsidiary (old IT vs new IT) aim it at competitors' segments and leave yours as is. Don't rock the boat internally but allow survival/transformation long term, just in different market segments. Eventually use your knowledge and kit to cannibalise your failed ICE car business.

 

[RobStark]

Only problem is, the penalties for selling ice negates their profits (margins) like selling cocaine (drug lord) only to get caught sent to jail, and have your fortune taken away by the authorities.

That is just simply not true.

VW Group made 16.96B Euros profit in 2019.

 

[RobStark]

@Rob Stark?

EV Sales

It is incomplete but best I found. Other ev sites reference them.

Like Insiveevs and Cleantechnica