Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

I guess it depends on what you mean by "making money" on the Taycan. I really doubt the effort will be profitable within five years if you include development costs, even if you only include those directly attributable to the Taycan development. It's a very low volume car and took a big effort over a few years to develop and test. That's expensive. And things are moving forward very quickly in the industry leaving the volume of sales after initial "collectors" uncertain.

I expect the Plaid Model S will thoroughly embarrass the brand with a storied racing career on their home turf this summer at Nurburgring. The Taycan looks like a European race car with an illustrious pedigree, but if it can't lay down faster lap times than an American-made family sedan, I mean, that's gotta hurt!

I keep reminding people as well, that with it's range, the Taycan is not even worthwhile as a track toy. Even a P3D has just enough to be usable for a normal track night, and some will disagree with that even. My local track has a Supercharger 10 mins away, which makes it possible to take my car out. If I had a Taycan? I suppose I could charge to 100%, trailer it in, and then just run half of the laps but F that.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I really like Chamath Palihapitiya but this interview was so ****ing terrible - they hardly let him speak, so I'll summarise so you don't have to listen to the crap:

He(or any rational person) should never go on that nonsense "Old Guy, Young Guy" show they refuse to end. Basically it was CP talking for 5 seconds then Old Guy shouting that climate change isn't real. This is the state of our news networks. Lol!

The talented women of CNBC are constantly and purposely surrounded by these lunatics, I feel bad for them in nearly every segment. They really need to band together and move to a new network.

 

[NakedLong]

I really like Chamath Palihapitiya but this interview was so ****ing terrible - they hardly let him speak, so I'll summarise so you don't have to listen to the crap:

* CP is looking to hedge vs Corona - thinks it could be bad, or just another flu like thing - depending on denominator of deaths/infections. Wants to buy on tail end of Corona. Also acknowledges will have to ride it out with most his companies.
* First 1000 drop of DOW is just not investing, after than it is forced selling and it can be snowbally because of how many hedge funds are over-leveraged 5-8 times. Bashes hedge fund industry for being misaligned.
* He is not leveraged
* Long Virgin Galactica about 800million - believes in company
* Tesla and VG are unique in that they represent growth outside of FAANG for all the money sloshing around. Not really much long term investing available in the stock market in companies which have a long term growth - hence the rise in SPCE and TSLA.
* Does not think having Bernie in power will change much - presidents get a hall pass to change only one thing - doesn't mind people calling out billionaires and thinks the capital markets should work better for the people rather than the rich much to the annoyance of another billionaire Leon Cooperman (who I can confirm sounds like a major asshole, not to mention a bore). Lost faith in the power and impact of presidency. Likened Bernie to the nordic democratic socialists.
* Had an 'I told you so' moment on Tesla and the shorts
* Regarding FAANG net seller - Facebook will be regulated, Google will divest to prevent regulation, Netflix is a consumer surplus business with bad viability to cashflow, and meanwhile Amazon is an amazing company with growth of 25% every year.
* Bitcoin a must for 1% hedge - respects Buffett who thinks Bitcoin is worthless, but says Buffett totally wrong and outdated (can confirm Buffett is long past prime). Bitcoin is uncorrelated to everything else.
* ESG doesn't work and JPMorgan using it for free money

I find it hard to disagree with much from CP, though I do have a few small disagreements.

I totally agree with him regarding Corona though, with the deaths/infected ratio being the main question, and the amount of uncertainty around the unreported infected. The deaths number is most likely accurate. Corona has the potential to knock 30-50% off the stock market I predict, or if it is just another flu is will have no lasting impact. The next month will be very telling.

Regarding Bernie, I hope if he gets in he has more impact than CP would expect, even if it is just 2-3 hall passes. I know Ross Gerber has been pushing for Bloomberg, likening Bernie to Lenin... I have zero respect for Gerber now. I know Elon has said Bloomberg is a reasonable person. It's pretty clear Bloomberg is just another Trump in several regards though (many 'grab her by the pussy' stories, not to mention him trying to buy the election). Bernie currently at about 5:6 betting odds of getting nomination (55% probability), compared to Bloomberg's 20%. Bernie getting into power would be good for Tesla - with a major push towards a Green New Deal.

Regarding FAANG - totally agree, except maybe on Google. I'm long Amazon.

Regarding SPCE - I don't get this stock. There is only one real player in space - SpaceX. Everyone else is going to be made obsolete, including ULA/Boeing/NASA/Blue Origin/all governments for that matter. A fully reusable Starship is going to make SpaceX the first quadrillion dollar company.

 

[ammulder]

FYI, there's inventory in the Philly area now (3, S, & X). First time this year I've seen any 3s showing in inventory. So I guess they've done some production for the East Coast!

 

[Nocturnal]

So, newer Model Y orders are being filled in certain configurations. Does that make anyone wonder about the order backlog? I can't imagine production is so high that they just have so many extras laying around to fill orders.

Regarding FAANG - totally agree, except maybe on Google. I'm long Amazon.

Regarding SPCE - I don't get this stock. There is only one real player in space - SpaceX. Everyone else is going to be made obsolete, including ULA/Boeing/NASA/Blue Origin/all governments for that matter. A fully reusable Starship is going to make SpaceX the first quadrillion dollar company.

OT, but I've always loved Amazon as a customer and until recently felt like I was priced out on the stock. However, I got my new Fire TV Cube which is like an Alexa puck but it acts as a fire TV source and controls my receiver etc. all via voice command. That has me thinking that Amazon is going to own home automation (or worst case share the market with google). I'm now a buyer of AMZN.

Same on SPCE. I don't understand the long term potential so I'm staying away. Seems like a toy for a few very wealthy people rather than a good investment from our side.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

FYI, there's inventory in the Philly area now (3, S, & X). First time this year I've seen any 3s showing in inventory. So I guess they've done some production for the East Coast!

This is around the time I expected a normal 1Q slowdown in buying, and certainly the coronavirus freakout doesn't help. All the Christmas present Teslas have been delivered

My theory is this Christmas carryover from last year is going to boost 1Q US sales well beyond sentiment.

 

[Swampgator]

So, newer Model Y orders are being filled in certain configurations. Does that make anyone wonder about the order backlog? I can't imagine production is so high that they just have so many extras laying around to fill orders.

I would agree that the 2019 order backlog is probably small. Maybe 50K
I do think if Tesla needed or wanted to increase demand, they have several levers to pull, yet they have not done so. So they must have high confidence that they will sell every Y they can make this year.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So, newer Model Y orders are being filled in certain configurations. Does that make anyone wonder about the order backlog? I can't imagine production is so high that they just have so many extras laying around to fill orders.

Rob Mauer dedicated yesterday's entire episode of his "Tesla Daily Podcast" to this topic. He est'd 2.5K Model Ys delivered in Q1, 100K for FY2020, with an existing 250K order backlog:

Cheers!

 

[FreqFlyer]

I guess it depends on what you mean by "making money" on the Taycan. I really doubt the effort will be profitable within five years if you include development costs, even if you only include those directly attributable to the Taycan development. It's a very low volume car and took a big effort over a few years to develop and test. That's expensive. And things are moving forward very quickly in the industry leaving the volume of sales after initial "collectors" uncertain.

I expect the Plaid Model S will thoroughly embarrass the brand with a storied racing career on their home turf this summer at Nurburgring. The Taycan looks like a European race car with an illustrious pedigree, but if it can't lay down faster lap times than an American-made family sedan, I mean, that's gotta hurt!

The Model S already beats the Taycan in different metrics, or the numbers game and it has not effected it expected sales. Why do you think a faster number on the Ring is going have any effect?

Once one experiences 0-60 under 3.0 seconds, whether its 2.8 or 2.5 seconds, its immaterial and does not lessen the stupid grin plastered on ones's face.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Remind me why to hold strong? Virus seems to be wiping out the dow again as of the past several minutes. I've never sold a share of TSLA in my life and feel bullish all the way. But I'm expecting empty streets in NYC in a month.

If you aren't expecting an ELE*, why wouldn't you hold instead of selling and locking in losses? If we assume civilization isn't collapsing, then this is a hold through the storm scenario. If we do assume civilization is collapsing, your investments in stocks won't be of much use anyways nor will money in general.

*Extinction Level Event

 

[dgodfrey]

Was able to scrape up a little bit to get 1 share at $781 by selling some plasma again. I'm a little tired so I'm going to bed now.

 

[Unpilot]

The Model S already beats the Taycan in different metrics, or the numbers game and it has not effected it expected sales. Why do you think a faster number on the Ring is going have any effect?

Once one experiences 0-60 under 3.0 seconds, whether its 2.8 or 2.5 seconds, its immaterial and does not lessen the stupid grin plastered on ones's face.

Porches are to a large extent about show and bluster.

Kinda hard to be that when a family sedan steals your thunder.

 

[phantasms]

If you aren't expecting an ELE*, why wouldn't you hold instead of selling and locking in losses? If we assume civilization isn't collapsing, then this is a hold through the storm scenario. If we do assume civilization is collapsing, your investments in stocks won't be of much use anyways nor will money in general.

*Extinction Level Event

My average is in the high $200s. Like many of us I'm way up so I'd be locking in gains, not losses. I'd sell my 40 now and buy 100 down the line. I know I know don't try to time the markets but I've been successful with it thus far. lol

 

[Singuy]

Rob Mauer dedicated yesterday's entire episode of his "Tesla Daily Podcast" to this topic. He est'd 2.5K Model Ys delivered in Q1, 100K for FY2020, with an existing 250K order backlog:

Cheers!

I think people learned their lesson when preordering cars from Tesla since most tried to time their lease and failed(and failed again this time since the cars are earlier than expected). The Y will fly off the shelves as they are stocked. Revolving your life around a pre-order from a company like Tesla (or any company as delays are common) proved to be a fraustrating experience.

 

[copyhacker]

So, newer Model Y orders are being filled in certain configurations. Does that make anyone wonder about the order backlog? I can't imagine production is so high that they just have so many extras laying around to fill orders.

Seems to me that Tesla succeeded in doing exactly what they wanted: anti-selling the Y, not Osborning the 3, and avoiding another production hell.

I have zero concerns about steady-state Y demand, but I guarantee it’ll eventually make its way onto the “short list” of bear talking points.

 

[AlexS]

Market is approaching December lows

 

[Cherry Wine]

TSLA would break below a technical indicator (mid-bollinger band on the daily chart) for the first time since early December if it can't close above $784 today. That's why I think we're seeing such strong support at that level (not that I'm confident in either outcome, that is, breaking below or staying above).

 

[AlexS]

TSLA would break below a technical indicator (mid-bollinger band on the daily chart) for the first time since early December if it can't close above $784 today. That's why I think we're seeing such strong support at that level (not that I'm confident in either outcome, that is, breaking below or staying above).

Or we are testing 21 day MA @ 773

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla Sentrycam continues to win friends and influence people: (positive Local News converage in Denver complete with happy ending for young couple who don't even own a Tesla -- YET!)

Cheers!

 

[ammulder]

Tesla Sentrycam continues to win friends and influence people: (positive Local News converage in Denver complete with happy ending for young couple who don't even own a Tesla -- YET!)

We ended up capturing a hit-and-run in a parking lot on ours (the car that got hit was parked next to our Model 3). They used the footage in combination with overhead cameras to track down the offender.

Can't say that I feel great about adding to the surveillance state... but there it is.