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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
You are presenting a false equivalence fallacy here. Pierre, has a university degree in computer science, but worked his life as an auto analyst... he has little to no exposure to cutting edge AI. Then there is Lex Fridman, who is an enthusiastic albeit weak AI researcher, with a bunch of biases towards his pet research projects like driver monitoring. Then there is Jim Keller, one of the best chip designers who has worked on the most cutting edge FSD systems and teams at Tesla. And then there is the Tesla team with Karpathy at the top of the FSD field - who informs Elon's estimates about the field. And we have Elon giving us information about FSD feature complete very soon.
Who are you going to believe? The best team and most sought after team in the world including Karpathy, Jim Keller, Elon and the huge amount of other talent they have hired, or Pierre with his idea that FSD won't even be able to do a 20 min drive? Don't you understand that there is a massive gulf of ability/talent/raw intellect that separates people like Pierre from people like Elon/Karpathy/Keller? (With people like Fridman somewhere in the middle)
Also I don't think his methodology was done well, simply because he thinks the probability of FSD is 0%. FSD is the single most important upside driver of Tesla, and to miss the main aspect of Tesla's future business is really poor imo. He is directly contradicting what Tesla expects to happen. Plus his idea of energy being 30billion vs the auto side being 5x that, also misses the point about the direction Elon intends to take the company. When Elon said energy will be the same as auto, this is because he intends to massively scale up battery/storage over the next 5 years. After battery day, and once Tesla starts producing their own batteries, I think analysts will have to start taking Tesla energy more seriously. For the most part, analysts are very over-conservative with their predictions, and essentially backwards looking. They are trailing the technology, not predicting it. Just because he is more bullish than almost all the analysts, doesn't mean he is a good analyst or correct.
On a related note, one of the aspects of chess I found most interesting was the ranking system. These ranking systems really put in place how vast the difference in skill and raw talent is between people. It is very difficult to beat someone with more than 100-200 points higher. These heavily right skewed distributions of ability will exist in every field. If you want to learn the most about a field, just work out who is the best in that field and listen to them. If you listen to people weaker than those at the top of their fields, you will be misinformed.
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Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
A couple of observations from from latest GF3 drone video made yesterday, on February 27, a Friday:
This is the widest shot of the new construction area that I was able to find: they appear to be pile-driving to prepare foundations for the empty fourth quadrant that wasn't utilized until now. In the background to the left is the power station, to the right the Battery Workshop.
This is a good shot of one of the grey piles (of I presume steel reinforced concrete) being driven vertically into the soft ground to stabilize it and to act as anchors for foundations.
I believe the machines are two types of pile-drivers, I don't remember having seen the left side one in the Phase I operations. Can anyone confirm/deny?
This is a really good shot of the new foundations of the building next to the stamp shop. Does anyone recognize these foundations as being for a particular purpose?
In particular the area in the second image is material with black discoloration, which might not be the usual soil used as filler for foundations. Could this be a type of high volume concrete that would form thousands of tons of extra mass to make the foundations extra strong? Or just random darker soil they found?
The third image shows what appears to be extra reinforced piles, to be further driven into the ground? Or are they structural elements for the building itself?
This could either be the high-tech foundry for the Model Y high-pressure vacuum mold-casting magic, or an extension to the stamp shop.
The approach to the Battery Workshop loading bays is being finished, which suggests that volume production of local battery packs (with cells made by LG and CATL) is to start in the next few weeks.
Assembly line loading docks well populated, which indicates an ongoing GF3 ramp-up.
Here we can see five new Model 3's being driven to the parking lot with the trailers - this is the highest rate of single image output of cars I've seen in these videos so far.
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Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
A couple of observations from from latest GF3 drone video made yesterday, on February 27, a Friday:
This is the widest shot of the new construction area that I was able to find: they appear to be pile-driving to prepare foundations for the empty fourth quadrant that wasn't utilized until now. In the background to the left is the power station, to the right the Battery Workshop.
This is a good shot of one of the grey piles (of I presume steel reinforced concrete) being driven vertically into the soft ground to stabilize it and to act as anchors for foundations.
I believe the machines are two types of pile-drivers, I don't remember having seen the left side one in the Phase I operations. Can anyone confirm/deny?
This is a really good shot of the new foundations of the building next to the stamp shop. Does anyone recognize these foundations as being for a particular purpose?
In particular the area in the second image is material with black discoloration, which might not be the usual soil used as filler for foundations. Could this be a type of high volume concrete that would form thousands of tons of extra mass to make the foundations extra strong? Or just random darker soil they found?
The third image shows what appears to be extra reinforced piles, to be further driven into the ground? Or are they structural elements for the building itself?
This could either be the high-tech foundry for the Model Y high-pressure vacuum mold-casting magic, or an extension to the stamp shop.
The approach to the Battery Workshop loading bays is being finished, which suggests that volume production of local battery packs (with cells made by LG and CATL) is to start in the next few weeks.
Assembly line loading docks well populated, which indicates an ongoing GF3 ramp-up.
Here we can see five new Model 3's being driven to the parking lot with the trailers - this is the highest rate of single image output of cars I've seen in these videos so far.
(Continuation post after running out of the 10 attachments limit)
GF3 staffing levels seem to be higher than ever before: all nearby parking lots are stock full with employee cars.
First time I've seen a minor traffic jam at the output of the general assembly area, where new cars are born. Also see the cars in the right piled up to be tested on the small test track - highest utilization I've seen in any of these videos so far.
This is the mystery tent near the big parking lot - which showed up recently in previous videos. The growing pile of wooden crates and plates next to it support the earlier hypothesis that these are incoming supplies being unwrapped and prepared for assembly, because unpacking them would have taken up too much space within the factory.
The scrapyard part of the video is NSFW for any Tesla enthusiasts:
Overall, if this is all the scrap they had during trial runs, then it's pretty minor.
Also note the metallic panels here: this conclusively supports the notion that GF3 painting is happening locally in the factory, and that those metal panels are not yet painted scrap from the stamp lines.
I.e. another nail in the CKD (completely knocked-down kit) conspiracy theory that Bloomberg was peddling just two months ago ...
This is where they are parking new Model 3's and loading them on trailers. The low inventory in the parking lot suggests that they have no bottlenecks on the delivery side, they can send all cars they make almost immediately.
The 5 new cars from the previous shot just arrive here - perfect timing of our drone operator hero.
Note that the color variety of the cars has increased, in particular there's now plenty of red cars as well. This suggests that the paint shop is ramping up and can produce more colors without hurting overall throughput.
This shot shows high level of delivery activity: 5 new cars arrive from GA in the bottom left corner, a trailer is just leaving with 6 cars, and two new trailers are being loaded right then as well.
These are the body-in-white (BIW, body-shop) loading docks on the east side of the factory - the 4 trucks unloading there is the highest capacity utilization I've seen so far in these videos.
This is the entry gate of the factory, and it's the first time I've seen trucks queuing there at all - and there's three trucks there ...
This too, together with the well utilized loading docks at the GA and BIW lines, suggests higher GF3 production levels than ever before.
All segments of the factory are showing higher activity levels than any of the videos prior to the coronavirus shutdown.
As a final image our drone operator caught one of the outgoing trailers with 6 gorgeous MIC Model 3's, of all the main color variants:
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StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I guess I should have sold everything back in March of 2009.
Just look at all the terrible events I would have avoided!
/s
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/02/27/tesla-sentry-mode/
WaPo article on Sentry Mode. Mostly positive (writer's Model 3 helped identify hit-and-run), with some privacy concerns toward the end.
WaPo article on Sentry Mode. Mostly positive (writer's Model 3 helped identify hit-and-run), with some privacy concerns toward the end.
In the below picture the fourth quadrant is the far side of the road going from left to right. I wonder if the current parking area will be moved to the area on the near side of the road once all four phases are built up. It looks like they are leveling the ground for some purpose.A couple of observations from from latest GF3 drone video made yesterday, on February 27, a Friday:
View attachment 516707
This is the widest shot of the new construction area that I was able to find: they appear to be pile-driving to prepare foundations for the empty fourth quadrant that wasn't utilized until now. In the background to the left is the power station, to the right the Battery Workshop.
View attachment 516708View attachment 516709
This is a good shot of one of the grey piles (of I presume steel reinforced concrete) being driven vertically into the soft ground to stabilize it and to act as anchors for foundations.
I believe the machines are two types of pile-drivers, I don't remember having seen the left side one in the Phase I operations. Can anyone confirm/deny?
View attachment 516710View attachment 516711View attachment 516712
This is a really good shot of the new foundations of the building next to the stamp shop. Does anyone recognize these foundations as being for a particular purpose?
In particular the area in the second image is material with black discoloration, which might not be the usual soil used as filler for foundations. Could this be a type of high volume concrete that would form thousands of tons of extra mass to make the foundations extra strong? Or just random darker soil they found?
The third image shows what appears to be extra reinforced piles, to be further driven into the ground? Or are they structural elements for the building itself?
This could either be the high-tech foundry for the Model Y high-pressure vacuum mold-casting magic, or an extension to the stamp shop.
View attachment 516713
The approach to the Battery Workshop loading bays is being finished, which suggests that volume production of local battery packs (with cells made by LG and CATL) is to start in the next few weeks.
View attachment 516714View attachment 516718
Assembly line loading docks well populated, which indicates an ongoing GF3 ramp-up.
View attachment 516715
Here we can see five new Model 3's being driven to the parking lot with the trailers - this is the highest rate of single image output of cars I've seen in these videos so far.
(Continuation post after running out of the 10 attachments limit)
View attachment 516733
GF3 staffing levels seem to be higher than ever before: all nearby parking lots are stock full with employee cars.
View attachment 516723
First time I've seen a minor traffic jam at the output of the general assembly area, where new cars are born. Also see the cars in the right piled up to be tested on the small test track - highest utilization I've seen in any of these videos so far.
View attachment 516726
This is the mystery tent near the big parking lot - which showed up recently in previous videos. The growing pile of wooden crates and plates next to it support the earlier hypothesis that these are incoming supplies being unwrapped and prepared for assembly, because unpacking them would have taken up too much space within the factory.
The scrapyard part of the video is NSFW for any Tesla enthusiasts:
Overall, if this is all the scrap they had during trial runs, then it's pretty minor.
Also note the metallic panels here: this conclusively supports the notion that GF3 painting is happening locally in the factory, and that those metal panels are not yet painted scrap from the stamp lines.
I.e. another nail in the CKD (completely knocked-down kit) conspiracy theory that Bloomberg was peddling just two months ago ...
View attachment 516720
This is where they are parking new Model 3's and loading them on trailers. The low inventory in the parking lot suggests that they have no bottlenecks on the delivery side, they can send all cars they make almost immediately.
The 5 new cars from the previous shot just arrive here - perfect timing of our drone operator hero.
Note that the color variety of the cars has increased, in particular there's now plenty of red cars as well. This suggests that the paint shop is ramping up and can produce more colors without hurting overall throughput.
View attachment 516728
This shot shows high level of delivery activity: 5 new cars arrive from GA in the bottom left corner, a trailer is just leaving with 6 cars, and two new trailers are being loaded right then as well.
View attachment 516727
These are the body-in-white (BIW, body-shop) loading docks on the east side of the factory - the 4 trucks unloading there is the highest capacity utilization I've seen so far in these videos.
View attachment 516724
This is the entry gate of the factory, and it's the first time I've seen trucks queuing there at all - and there's three trucks there ...
This too, together with the well utilized loading docks at the GA and BIW lines, suggests higher GF3 production levels than ever before.
All segments of the factory are showing higher activity levels than any of the videos prior to the coronavirus shutdown.
As a final image our drone operator caught one of the outgoing trailers with 6 gorgeous MIC Model 3's, of all the main color variants:
View attachment 516729View attachment 516730
in this photo, it looks like the pallets on the RHS are non-standard. Could they be the packaging for battery packs from GF1? Hard to tell from the photo, but in the video it looks like they are designed to encase an item rather than sit underneath the item.
If so, It could potentially be another way to ballpark production numbers.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
In the below picture the fourth quadrant is the far side of the road going from left to right. I wonder if the current parking area will be moved to the area on the near side of the road once all four phases are built up. It looks like they are leveling the ground for some purpose.
Yes, I was wondering about that too, and my guess is a parking lot as well.
Here's the map of the area, with outlines for the final factory:
The triangular area between the yellow and blue lines on the right side is the area they are leveling and possibly paving to serve as a parking lot - to free up the fourth quadrant which is hosting temporary buildings (being decommissioned now) and the MIC Model 3 parking lot.
It means that we're running out of time to the end of the quarter.
Overall it seems to be converging pretty reasonably to closing out at the end of the quarter. Tesla seems to think so as well, otherwise they would have sent another ship to Europe and/or lowered prices.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Hopefully this coronavirus update is still suitable for the investor thread - the latest WHO estimates and another report have revised down the mortality/fatality rate of the coronavirus to 0.7% in non-Hubei China where infection occurred after February 1, and 0.94% based on modeling as per @JBRR's link, see more details in the coronavirus thread:
Early estimates of 2%-3%-5%-7% mortality rate have not materialized in later stages, the coronavirus has either become milder in later generations, or the early cases were mis-reported (which is a fair possibility in the Wuhan chaos that probably missed many mild infections).
Of course I have no idea how the markets will react to coronavirus news and the Fed easing news next week, they could continue to freak out, or could rally - so this is not advice in any direction.
Coronavirus
"With this additional adjustment and using the same methodology and data from the original version of this report, the corrected estimate of the infection-fatality-ratio (IFR) is 0.94 (0.37, 2.9) percent."
Coronavirus
"As of 20 February, 2114 of the 55,924 laboratory confirmed cases have died (crude fatality ratio[CFR2] 3.8%) (note: at least some of whom were identified using a case definition that included pulmonary disease). The overall CFR varies by location and intensity of transmission (i.e. 5.8%in Wuhan vs. 0.7%in other areas in China). In China, the overall CFR was higher in the early stages of the outbreak (17.3% for cases with symptom onset from 1-10 January) and has reduced over time to 0.7% for patients with symptom onset after 1 February (Figure 4). The Joint Mission noted that the standard of care has evolved over the course of the outbreak."
"With this additional adjustment and using the same methodology and data from the original version of this report, the corrected estimate of the infection-fatality-ratio (IFR) is 0.94 (0.37, 2.9) percent."
Coronavirus
"As of 20 February, 2114 of the 55,924 laboratory confirmed cases have died (crude fatality ratio[CFR2] 3.8%) (note: at least some of whom were identified using a case definition that included pulmonary disease). The overall CFR varies by location and intensity of transmission (i.e. 5.8%in Wuhan vs. 0.7%in other areas in China). In China, the overall CFR was higher in the early stages of the outbreak (17.3% for cases with symptom onset from 1-10 January) and has reduced over time to 0.7% for patients with symptom onset after 1 February (Figure 4). The Joint Mission noted that the standard of care has evolved over the course of the outbreak."
Early estimates of 2%-3%-5%-7% mortality rate have not materialized in later stages, the coronavirus has either become milder in later generations, or the early cases were mis-reported (which is a fair possibility in the Wuhan chaos that probably missed many mild infections).
Of course I have no idea how the markets will react to coronavirus news and the Fed easing news next week, they could continue to freak out, or could rally - so this is not advice in any direction.
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Buckminster
Well-Known Member
From here:
Clearly Elon's evil lair. China was the only country that would let him build his dreams - the rest of Tesla is just a ruse.A couple of observations from from latest GF3 drone video made yesterday, on February 27, a Friday:
View attachment 516707
This is the widest shot of the new construction area that I was able to find: they appear to be pile-driving to prepare foundations for the empty fourth quadrant that wasn't utilized until now. In the background to the left is the power station, to the right the Battery Workshop.
View attachment 516708View attachment 516709
This is a good shot of one of the grey piles (of I presume steel reinforced concrete) being driven vertically into the soft ground to stabilize it and to act as anchors for foundations.
I believe the machines are two types of pile-drivers, I don't remember having seen the left side one in the Phase I operations. Can anyone confirm/deny?
View attachment 516710View attachment 516711View attachment 516712
This is a really good shot of the new foundations of the building next to the stamp shop. Does anyone recognize these foundations as being for a particular purpose?
In particular the area in the second image is material with black discoloration, which might not be the usual soil used as filler for foundations. Could this be a type of high volume concrete that would form thousands of tons of extra mass to make the foundations extra strong? Or just random darker soil they found?
The third image shows what appears to be extra reinforced piles, to be further driven into the ground? Or are they structural elements for the building itself?
This could either be the high-tech foundry for the Model Y high-pressure vacuum mold-casting magic, or an extension to the stamp shop.
View attachment 516713
The approach to the Battery Workshop loading bays is being finished, which suggests that volume production of local battery packs (with cells made by LG and CATL) is to start in the next few weeks.
View attachment 516714View attachment 516718
Assembly line loading docks well populated, which indicates an ongoing GF3 ramp-up.
View attachment 516715
Here we can see five new Model 3's being driven to the parking lot with the trailers - this is the highest rate of single image output of cars I've seen in these videos so far.
The only thing I'm hedged against is the pound sterling
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
They seem to be continuously removing the pallets though, so this can at best give a lower boundary for production.
There are about 1,500 pallets piled up to the right.
We don't know how the battery packs are packaged - other data suggests that there are about ~18 GF1 packs per standard long container.
If they are packaged in groups of 3, 6 or 9, then the pallets suggest a lower boundary for GF3 production of 4,500-9,000-13,500 units so far.
But all of this is highly speculative.
In 2001, the uptick rule was still in effect (since 1938) for all short sales. And, I'm quite sure the Madoff Exemption, allowing MMs to naked short, was not in effect. I.e., the tools for manipulation, at will, had not yet been bestowed upon the manipulators.
j6Lpi429@3j
Closed
Ha, you would love it where I live in rural England. I own the only Tesla in this village. I've seen 2 more (once!) in a farm shop car park in the next village. I drove for two hours yesterday to a major town. We saw one model 3 and one model S.
Tesla has not even begin to make even a small dent in car sales here in the UK. Widespread take-up here is limited by two factors:
1) Price
2) Charging points
2) Will, eventually be a limit, but 1) should go away as more people get used to seeing and hearing about the model 3. There is still an assumption here that a Tesla costs £100k (more like 70), and everybody driving one is a millionaire.
Having said that, there is definitely a widespread understanding here that a tesla is the car you want, if you want an EV. Sure, people are buying the LEAF and ZOE and the small BMW, but overwhelmingly it seems these are people who would swap to a model 3/S in a heartbeat if prices were the same.
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
Here is a list of stocks I have been following.
Had PUT's on some. Not Tesla.
NOTE The drop in Tesla is not as bad as I have felt. February High is closing high.
NOTE Ford is down 24.18 vs Tesla 27.15
Had PUT's on some. Not Tesla.
NOTE The drop in Tesla is not as bad as I have felt. February High is closing high.
NOTE Ford is down 24.18 vs Tesla 27.15
Krugerrand
Meow
Presumably, somebody at Tesla would have had the primitive forethought of designing a plan for a factory that included general near future plans for Y production. You’d hope or I’m afraid we’re doomed.
It looked like only one press line originally went in. Unless they planned to outsource a number of parts — which is a possibility but less likely because it’s Tesla — one line is NOT enough capacity to produce for 3 and Y and they planned to add another all along.
Repeat after me, a single press line does NOT have enough capacity to produce parts for the volume Tesla is aiming for for 3 and Y. A second press line is required at some point or Tesla will have to outsource body panel manufacturing. There is no other option.
I’m sure there is one OEM/Tier 1 or 2 or 3 supplier factory out there because — people not always bright — but stamping is always in a single, specifically chosen location in a factory. Like I’ve never seen or known it to be split in a factory.
It’s just common efficiencies sense to have your presses, your die sets, your rolls of materials, your toolmakers and machinists, your press operators, tools, etc accessible in a single location, regardless of the number or variety of products you’re producing.
Now, maybe there’s some first principle voodoo, magic, alternative Universe, alien technology, simulation that has escaped me which begs for a different floor plan.
It's because US cars get manufactured in the final weeks, so it's not that the lead-time is less, it's rather that you got closer to the time when they would manufacture a car that would match your order.
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