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Recent content by ValueAnalyst

  1. ValueAnalyst

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Thank you for your support, and I agree with your "break even or slight annual profit for 2018" call. 2018 GAAP profitability would have immense implications, so your prediction is critical. Kudos for making a bold call and good luck.
  2. ValueAnalyst

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    It's a shame that Moody's hasn't upgraded Tesla already, frankly. Maybe they are waiting for Tesla to pay down/off the converts, or their valued clients who are caught short to cover first before the upgrade pushes the stock higher? Difficult to know which...
  3. ValueAnalyst

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    That's right! I did see that! Thank you. Not that I was looking for anyone to defend me, but I thought it was admirable that you did that.
  4. ValueAnalyst

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Why, thank you. It was eating me inside that I couldn't thank this post. Not sure why I thought I'd still be able to agree/disagree while banned. There's only one way to resolve this.
  5. ValueAnalyst

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    I don’t know how they get to 10k/w Model 3’s without putting up a couple of more tents and another paint shop, say by next summer.
  6. ValueAnalyst

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    "end up like Troy" - detail-oriented, data-driven, useful, factual, and right? Sign me up! @Troy is a legend as far as I'm concerned. Obviously not; I thought Tesla would first start international deliveries of Long Range. I'm working on an ASP/margin article, which will allow me to think...
  7. ValueAnalyst

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Speculation. Note that I was the only person who pointed out the negative margin impact, which the market priced in today.
  8. ValueAnalyst

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Electric-Car Market Share In 2013: Understanding The Numbers Better "In the United States, each price drop of $5,000 roughly doubles the buyer pool; conversely, a $5,000 price increase halves the number of people who can buy the car." On a separate note, @RobStark , are you still predicting...
  9. ValueAnalyst

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    October 31 is the likely date, but Tesla may drop it at any time. There is no requirement to announce a date. November 7 is also a potential date.
  10. ValueAnalyst

    Prediction Thread - "You Called It"

    No automaker other than Tesla will be profitable in 2019.
  11. ValueAnalyst

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    VW is building an all-electric vehicle factory for 300,000 cars per year in China
  12. ValueAnalyst

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Yes; MR supports the mission by accelerating market share growth while not driving the company into bankruptcy. I'm calculating the specific margin impact, but the overall company profitability will clearly continue into 2019 with triple-digit top-line growth. Pretty sweet deal.
  13. ValueAnalyst

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    TMC is to Bulls what SA is to Bears: an echo chamber. It's definitely not the place for "the most accurate" information if there is such a thing. It's best to read about a dozen individuals who have a proven track record while avoiding those who only post in one direction like the plague. For...
  14. ValueAnalyst

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    MR will command less margin than LR, but don’t discount the positive impact of higher fixed asset AND labor cost absorption on the rest of the production. If Tesla keeps MR production limited, to say 2k/w, then margins will likely continue to improve.