anthonyj
Stonks
Honestly though it feels as if some large institution is suppressing the price to gobble up more. The price action is almost predictable. Sell at open, buy 3 hours later. Every single day.
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Observing patterns like this can make you a little money, but you have to follow the trend do to it, which means being short TSLA. The problem is that when it rises, you can/will then lose bigly. Buy and hold.
Sooo ... do we know the battery capacity of this lemur?
Simple math would suggest 63 kWh nominal / 59kWh usable (260/330 * 80 nominal / 75 usable)
Weight difference between LR and MR is 128 pounds (58kg).
For 17kWh of cells that means 297Wh/kg cell-energy-density.
Respect.
Simple math would suggest 63 kWh nominal / 59kWh usable (260/330 * 80 nominal / 75 usable)
Weight difference between LR and MR is 128 pounds (58kg).
For 17kWh of cells that means 297Wh/kg cell-energy-density.
Respect.
Krugerrand
Meow
It is the place for the most accurate information. You just simply need to change your list of who you read because the effect of mid-range has already been discussed in great detail and continues to be discussed.
I saw all the posts you and your buddy disagreed with yesterday and I’m not just talking mine. But that does beg the question, why am I, a vigilante per you, on your list of a dozen individuals? And why are all those others you disagreed with (way more than a dozen) on your reading list here in the echo chamber?
But more on topic. You asked the question why the stock isn’t up 10% on the mid-range news and then proceeded to answer that question; as the net effect is anybody’s guess at this point. Welcome to TSLA. You now have a full understanding.
We already know cells and motors are bottlenecks at this point. You can say they don't have enough demand for LR RWD to match the demand of AWD for an optimal mix in their current production capabilities. Now that is VERY different from just lack of demand.
There are two sources from Tesla, one of them being Elon Musk himself, saying this is NOT the case.
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
We now have a Great production ramp, great car, great reviews, and still stock goes down.
Could pedo secured still be weighing on the stock?
Could pedo secured still be weighing on the stock?
Fewer of them as time passes...
I keep waiting for the breaking news about a few janitors who left the company back in August or something. Puzzling day.
So you're saying others are perfectly OK with their own space and nobody is interested eating others lunch.
I found that really really hard to believe in the highly competitive industry
Etna
Member
That would not make any sense at all if the cell production is currently constrained.
Elon Musk on Twitter
It’s a long range battery with fewer cells. Non-cell portion of the pack is disproportionately high, but we can get it done now instead of ~February
anthonyj
Stonks
I’m going to be called a pessimistic troll, but I feel like even if Tesla reported $1bil in profit the stock would be up for a day and slide back down.
Only thing I can think of is that some might be worried that the smaller margins on this lower-priced version will hurt the bottom line.
To me the "low LR demand in NA" does not make sense for a couple of reasons.
- If LR demand was falling off the cliff, the last thing they would do is make it even more expensive. By mandating AWD they did just that.
- If LR demand in NA was a problem, they could open up Europe a few months early. I don't think the homologization process is a real issue and it also seems like Tilburg already has the facilities. They may need to accelerate staffing though. Still Europe is a huge untapped market for the Model 3. If they started delivering early, people would storm the gates. Especially in countries where incentives are in danger of running out by the time Model 3 arrives.
humbaba
sleeping until $7000
I do have one other initial assumption that differs: I take the GM as 20% for the LR and am using $62k as ASP (only because despite you listing that for implied higher uptake I recall that being LR ASP -- you're probably right and can do the calc with different assumption). I used $1.75k for the battery difference.
This gives me LR_Margin = 20% from 62 - MR_base + 1.75 and results in MR_base = $28k and a quite fat GM. So maybe the 62k ASP was high
but I still think the 20% GM projection is from the prior mix, not the MR. Evidence is that MR was not part of long term planning. I don't feel like digging up a proper ASP for before the MR though.A bear thesis would naturally involve not meeting the 20% GM, but if taken to the logical conclusion that means they should not be doing an MR. They still aren't meeting demand (sorry bears, its true, there's a queue for the higher ASP) so there has to be a reason they are doing the MR.
My posit is that they are trying to aggressively deplete the excess RWD units and the LR RWD simply wasn't doing it fast enough. By knocking $5k off the price I think they are expecting to deplete their stocks more quickly -- turning stock into sold inventory is going to be needed to maximize earnings.
Naturally, I'm quite possibly wrong. It is just a supposition and I'm fully aware of that. But any alternate should account for known factors.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Yes; MR supports the mission by accelerating market share growth while not driving the company into bankruptcy. I'm calculating the specific margin impact, but the overall company profitability will clearly continue into 2019 with triple-digit top-line growth. Pretty sweet deal.
humbaba
sleeping until $7000
where's the "sad, but true" pessimist rating? I won't call you a troll, but I agree with pessimist. I feel like that quite a lot. I think in the 5 to 20 year time frame $TSLA will do well. Not so sure about the next few years though.
Which is a reminder that I'm not really investing in $TSLA for the money. I'm doing it because I believe it is seriously undervalued (note my expectation in long term) and I think it is an amazing company that I want to have an interest in. If I was just in it for the money I would look for companies without ethics, morals or any concern about legalities.
bdy0627
Active Member
I think they absolutely love TSLA opening higher since it is so easy to sell it down under the current conditions.
No. I said it's not necessary to build a Model 3 like car, to prove that you can build compelling cars. That's a drive-train independent statement. I also said, that others have started to prepare for the production of compelling EVs, but are not there yet. One might suppose this is partially, because they are not ok with others eating their lunch. It's easy to undestand, if you read what i wrote and not try to interpret the things between the lines, that have not been said. ;-)
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