Nope, that is why Elon specifically said it is a LR pack with fewer cells because the new design won't be available until ~February.
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Nope, that is why Elon specifically said it is a LR pack with fewer cells because the new design won't be available until ~February.
I think he was speculating that this new pack design might actually be used for both the SR and MR.
dqd88
Member
Ok Jeb. You said "I honestly think there is no way they’ll be producing 10k/w this quarter."
So let me correct myself since you aren't able to infer.
Why do you think there is no way they'll be producing 10k/w this quarter?
Ah, the old “it’s just the wife, she doesn’t need anything premium” play.
OK, I gave you a "funny" for that.
The truth is that she RARELY drives anywhere, I'm her taxi service. Her car doesn't move for weeks sometimes, and then its usually just a mile up the road to Publix or the Dollar Store. Once every 3 months she drives to her dentist about 20 miles away, so I think she can endure not having PuP. Hey, when you can have someone chauffeur you in a Model S, why drive? 
Carl Raymond
Active Member
But here's the thing. Say that the break even point was 4000/wk. At 4200 they have 4000 cars paying the fixed cost and 200 cars delivering profit.
At 6000/wk they still make the first 4000 to pay the fixed cost (because it's fixed), but now have 2000 cars delivering profit. 6000 is ten times more cash for the bottom line than 4200!
Understanding this it becomes clear why the Mid Range has emerged and Tesla are building car carriers. Ramping up from the break even point is like winning the lottery. Suddenly it's raining cash.
Elon suggested mid-19. I think can be later. That's going to be a lot of pain coordinating with suppliers, expanding logistics/service etc. It won't happen overnight.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
I don’t know how they get to 10k/w Model 3’s without putting up a couple of more tents and another paint shop, say by next summer.
Well because it goes against guidance given by the over optimistic Mr. Musk.
Here is what he said in August.
Elon Musk said:
Notice that he said quarters plural. So I would take that to mean Q1 or Q2 2019. Going from 5k/w at the start of Q4 to 10k/w at the end is also far from steady.
Whichever way you slice it, introducing lower cost model before tax credits are over this year, only means one thing - LR demand volume alone cannot satisfy their current increased 1000 per day production volume. I am guessing the current increased production rate can sustain only 80% of LR variants, and the rest has to be satisfied with a lower cost variant (MR).
Well, while we're discussing our expectations for what the Q4 targets will be, here's mine:
M3 peak weekly rate: 7k/wk
Total M3 produced: 70-75k (~5,5k/wk average)
M3 ASP: $56k
M3 margin: 20%
MS/MX unchanged.
M3 peak weekly rate: 7k/wk
Total M3 produced: 70-75k (~5,5k/wk average)
M3 ASP: $56k
M3 margin: 20%
MS/MX unchanged.
The other theory is they want to increase production but can’t because they are cell supply constrained. Adding a car with less cells allows them to increase production while utilizing the same amount of cells. This theory says nothing about demand.
no better than star or any other soap opera nonsense. it’s one of the mouthpieces the street uses to misinform viewers and manipulate markets.
Mod: Just yesterday I warned someone that the moderators view "disagree sprees" very dimly. That plus being argumentative and making unnecessary work for the moderator(s) earned someone a timeout. Be nice to each other, guys... --ggr.
Does this happen to other people? I haven't even posted all day and somebody decided to systematically disagree my whole life. Not the first time this has happened to me on this board. Weird behavior imo.
Not gonna lie, SP movement today has me shaking my head, but materially I know the co is intact. I don't want to be the guy that sells off most of my position on the earnings pop to try to time the market, so I'm not going to. I've decided to hold my calls staunchly up until the weeks they expire, just as an act of stubbornness if nothing else.
sweter
Member
Let's not forget there is the rest of the world waiting for their M3. They could easily sell only LR and better for the greater part of 2019 if they started deliveries to Europe, Australia and Asia. But that would angry a lot of people who want to use the tax credit or were "promised" the $35k Tesla (or both). I think it slowly starts to be a balance between earnings and making good on their promises.
I guess I agree that for at least the next 3 quarters LR+ will be 80% of production.
Another theory is they need a range of options and prices to sustain the demand long term. Just because they are doing it now, does not mean the need to NOW. Lower priced options have always been planned.
I also hope they value their in person line reservation holders enough to get them the tax credit this year, I know it made a huge different for me. Probably a good idea to not alienate your most loyal customers, even if they are not the highest paying.
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