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  1. bkp_duke

    FSD discussion

    Bigger? Metro areas? TWO metro areas, SF and Phoenix. Not even the "hard" metros like LA and NYC. Those metro areas represent < 0.001% of the driveable roads in the USA. At this rate, the entire USA might have full coverage by . . . (does back of napkin math) . . . 2150. Again, NOT a...
  2. bkp_duke

    All discussion of Rivian Automotive

    Easy there conspiracy theorist. Unless you have proof to the contrary, this could be just a simple new bug introduction that was un-intended. They did immediately admit it and are planning a fix. That kind of response doesn't support a "greed" narrative.
  3. bkp_duke

    FSD discussion

    The problem with Cruise and Waymo are the inability for these solutions to SCALE UP in any reasonable time-frame. Specifically: 1) they are geofenced to TINY TINY areas 2) they require cars with thousands, sometimes tens of thousands of dollars of extra equipment 3) until recently Cruise could...
  4. bkp_duke

    FSD discussion

    BINGO - it's a data accumulation and computational problem. The data accumulation has taken 5+ years for Tesla, and the dataset has been filtered repeatedly to make it high-quality (human labelers, auto labelers, etc.). All of these tools still have to be built by the competition, that's what...
  5. bkp_duke

    FSD discussion

    No no no. HD mapping is a logical "dead end" for this kind of product. Humans don't memorize detailed maps. We think along the way, THAT is the hardest part. Not the mapping. The mapping is chump change and buzz words for PR people.
  6. bkp_duke

    FSD discussion

    I'm very familiar with them, have been following them closely since they were the provider for the hardware for Tesla's AP1. I don't think their approach is going to work well, as it partially relies upon HD maps. The Achilles heel of HD maps is that they go out of date almost instantly (what...
  7. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    All 5 shares? ;) EDIT - apparently they jump in an out of TSLA quite frequently: https://sports.yahoo.com/steve-cohens-point72-fund-built-160513550.html
  8. bkp_duke

    FSD discussion

    Completely disagree, and I'm going to be detailed on why. People glance at MobileEye's PR sheet and see glitzy words and think all the added sensors they are bringing to bear (LIDAR, I'm looking at you) means that they must be superior. But it's not really the sensors that are important, it's...
  9. bkp_duke

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    OK, read it the other way around. That they would join NATO, then NATO would "end game" Russia.
  10. bkp_duke

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    Russia is effectively going to run out of equipment before they run out of manpower. Watching this play out is like watching a giant realtime game of RISK play out.
  11. bkp_duke

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    I don't know the legal details, but I believe it would take a unanimous ratification, and then it would auto-trigger Article 5 (one would think). Even the USA probably would avoid that, for fear of a nuclear escalation.
  12. bkp_duke

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    IIRC no country can join NATO while in active conflict. Ukraine will have to have this conflict end before they can join.
  13. bkp_duke

    FSD discussion

    I have heard a theory about this, and it has some good weight behind it. All of these systems rely upon ECU modules to do the processing for them. This adds latency for those modules to talk with other systems. There was a fantastic video about the wet traction on a BMW i4 vs. a Tesla M3 P...
  14. bkp_duke

    FSD discussion

    No. TSLA needs training time. The hardware and software are more than adequate.
  15. bkp_duke

    New Powerwall2 Install: Standby Mode?

    False info. There is a reserve that the system won't let you get into, and it will trickle a little bit from the grid to stay healthy. Turning off is a good idea, it can last a few weeks in that state on a low charge with little power level change.
  16. bkp_duke

    FSD discussion

    The Chinese videos I have seen are not even up to 2016 AP levels, forget FSD. And MobileEye's solution has some serious technology hurdles to overcome.
  17. bkp_duke

    FSD discussion

    As a Tesla driver, FSD progress is somewhat frustrating. As a TSLA investor, I've come to the realization that I LOVE how hard autonomous driving is. Why? Because when Tesla solves it, they are going to have an insurmountable advantage over everyone else.
  18. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Because getting a permit for something that seems to be that "easy" in the Bay Area is a freaking nightmare. It's why Tesla went with "tents" for line expansion instead of permanent structures. It took me 3 years of permitting to get approval for a 30" high, non-weight-bearing landscape wall...
  19. bkp_duke

    FSD discussion

    I vote no. There was no immediate harm to yourself or anyone else. If a kid had been present, different story.
  20. bkp_duke

    Elon & Twitter

    Speculation who the new Twitter CEO is going to be? We know "she", but haven't seen anything else. EDIT - found this in the main thread:
  21. bkp_duke

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    This was exactly my thoughts. For some stupefying reason, RU is fixated with taking Bakhmut, which is now effectively worthless. So Ukraine is baiting them and fixing them, and I expect to see reinforcements brought from elsewhere. Once an opening is found, it will be exploited, and hard.
  22. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I understand that, but the customers have already built that 1MW distributed system, it's a sunk cost. And they want to continue expanding that (because of the bat *sugar* crazy peak pricing of 0.62/kwh). My point - customers will continue to deploy solar as long as things pencil out for them...
  23. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    All of this reinforces the point that behind the meter battery storage is a better, more resilient setup, with fewer infrastructure costs before the meter because HVDC line capacity, substation deployment, transformer capacity is greatly reduced (you are not using the grid as a battery, you have...
  24. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I just don't accept that infrastructure in Cali costs 5X what it does in other parts of the country. That's just "creative accounting", beyond the point of the utilities trying to milk us for their previous failures. What happens when 10s of thousands of people disconnect from the grid? It's...
  25. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    There are also serious privacy concerns about this. I'm not going to share my income with a 3rd party utility. And the state tax authority better not share it, that's a breach of privacy, in my view. Lawsuits abound if this gets implemented. But to your point, I've done the math, I've had...
  26. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It passed in law SB 205 back in 2022. It was literally one line in a larger energy bill, so it really flew under the radar. Because the bill itself didn't specify how to implement things exactly, just that there were at minimum 3 income tiers to which fixed rate charges are adjusted by (with...
  27. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It does, just not directly. There have been a lot of discussions and articles on this already, but the TL;DR is that utils are proposing HIGH connectivity fees, based upon income, and then flat-rate per kwh charges. This pushes out the payback on solar for the demographics that adopt it most...
  28. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Less paint in MX. The entire "body in white" is not planned on being painted, because the assembly process has changed. Yet another savings (less paint) from the proposed new "quad" assembly process. (I say quad because it's 4 quadrants that the parts come from, not because that's what Tesla...
  29. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    In SDG&E territory, it's up to $126/mo for connectivity, for households with 180k or higher annual income. Guts solar, instantly.
  30. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Problem is it is one company here for both NG and electricity. And if you just stopped paying, I'm sure they would put it on your credit report, sue you in small claims court, etc. The could make life very difficult.
  31. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yeah, you disconnect at the main breaker, and they come and remove the meter and should place a blocking device in the meter, etc. That's my assumption, I haven't talked to anyone yet that has done this. It looks like there is enough uproar about this "income based equity billing" crap that...
  32. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The skeptic in me wonders if someone with deep pockets is funding this just to keep the negative press on Tesla, and this guy gets paid something good regardless. Again, the skeptic in me, but . . .
  33. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yes, in the past 1 year there have been some legal challenges and people testing this, and it has been allowed. But until the past year, you are correct. In my case, I would need 2 more powerwalls, and a backup power source (mixed fuel generator) to get through those weeks in the winter when...
  34. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This guy never learns his lesson: https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-black-former-worker-seeks-new-trial-after-poisonous-messaging-2023-5 $137 mil judgement - slashed to $15 mil. Wasn't good enough for him, so he went back to court to go after Tesla for more, jury awarded him $3.2 mil. And...
  35. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Even worse here. Peak up to 0.62/kwh down here in SDG&E territory. If that "income based connectivity fee" actually comes to pass, I'm going to disconnect from the grid.
  36. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    So in a nutshell . . . the IRA is indirectly funding the next 5-6 Gigafactories. I can live with that. :D
  37. bkp_duke

    Elon & Twitter

    If they have a license, no problem, they can rebroadcast it. And no, they are not liable for the content. Just like whenever there was a "wardrobe malfuction" a few years ago at the superbowl halftime show, the network was not responsible for that content (although they are required to cut...
  38. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Makes sense that Berlin is ahead. Texas is trying to build structural 4680s, so things are dependent upon that ramp, and mixing in 2170s to fill the gap, and then more than half the building is for producing the Cybertruck. Surprised they are as close as they are.
  39. bkp_duke

    Elon & Twitter

    YT livestream from a TV channel is copyright infringement, it happens, and as soon as it is reported, YT takes it down. Yes, Tucker would be personally liable for defamation, but in the courts that has been a tall order. It conflicts with the 1st Amendment (that's the argument) and has to be...
  40. bkp_duke

    Elon & Twitter

    Nope. Section 230 protects "platforms" specifically against the content of the creators on that platform. https://www.eff.org/issues/bloggers/legal/liability/230...
  41. bkp_duke

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    It's well known that the high-end optics and the depleted uranium armor are not going to Ukraine. But this isn't a news flash, the US doesn't export that to even their closest allies. Some goodies stay only with Uncle Sam (*cough* F-22 *cough*).
  42. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Wonder how much of that was Munro and Assoc's help. In one of their YT vids they said Rivian had hired them to find and remove production inefficiencies.
  43. bkp_duke

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    That T-34 tank on display . . . man, that was impressive.
  44. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    You should think of the Semi in different terms. One Semi delivery is the equivalent of taking 20-50 traditional autos off the road. Tesla has made it clear that's how "dirty" traditional semitrucks are. No one expected thousands of these things to come out in the first year. That wasn't...
  45. bkp_duke

    Elon & Twitter

    No one 7 SDs from the mean to the right has anything to do with EVs. Anything. Just saying, this sounds like hyperbole.
  46. bkp_duke

    Elon & Twitter

    Choke hold outcome is also highly dependent upon the physical status of the person receiving it. Someone that is homeless and in a weakened condition, but hiding it well by making threats and looking angry, will have a substantially worse outcome than trying it on say a MMA fighter in peak...
  47. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Agreed. If Lucid were smart, they would drop the price of their car to push volume. Their only two claims to fame are: 1) it's not a Tesla (small but existing crowd to appeal to) 2) it's got 500+ mile range (on some trims). Right now, if I were crazy enough to be looking to drop 150+ on an...
  48. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    There are ~10 of those in the entire country. And no, the "marketing" wasn't done at one of those.
  49. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I consider it a dumbass marketing strategy. If I were at that supercharger and they showed up, I would ask "can that car plug into this?" (pointing at supercharger). "No?" K, thx, bai.
  50. bkp_duke

    Investor Engineering Discussions

    Pre meter.