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Your concerns are valid, just watch the blinders. Anecdote: I am renting a RAV4 for a couple weeks for travel and I have no idea why anyone would buy one over a Y. With rebates comparable costs, but significant operating savings and quality improvements with the Tesla. This suggests to me that...

You want to ladder them out, so spread expirations over time (and strike). Break up your contracts into different lots of about 20% each, and never buy more than one lot in a 2-hour window. Sell the safest call first-- say a $190 for 5/3, and see where things go. You are trying to recover...

Personally I would buy to cover tomorrow. My thesis is that our floor for now is about $160; some suggest the floor might be a little lower, but only ~$5. I don't usually roll options, especially when you entered a trade with a thesis that has been proven incorrect. Selling for CCs $185-190...

When I can. Not getting sufficient premium to make it worthwhile. I need to reduce my share count over time.

I think there is a bit too much optimism in TSLA SP upside post ER. The floor has been lifted but that is about it. Getting back to $200 seems like a long slog to me. The fundamental lack of long-term buyers is still there. Seeing $200 is going to require execution and not just rehearsal.

Berlin seems to be quite stable. The battery line delays due to prioritizing Austin had a negative effect, but it hasn't t profitability before Austin. Flop seems too harsh, although its vision seems cloudy in retrospect. I am all for fiscal discipline and making decisions based on efficiency...

You could make a 3-door Model 3-ish car, about 12" narrower wheelbase, leveraging the existing design of the end structures of the Y; industrialization of the unique parts at about 16 months is viable. You have to be working on a pocket design though that has been sitting in a file. You need...

I don't think that is the lesson you want to learn; try to learn how much insurance you need. Insurance should never make you whole... or get you ahead. Insurance should be used to moderate your risk and not eliminate it. In life estimating our risk and exposure is hard; with stocks it is so...

Texas isn't really a huge "rule of law" state though (more Libertarian), and when it comes to corporate structure you really have the fundamental benefits of Delaware. If Tesla's lawyers were making a solid case for the change of residency it would be one thing... but the proposal sounds much...

On a fundamentals basis I doubt you will see $625, although you can get yourself to an effective price around there. Really depends on if you want to hold the stock or just leverage it. I'm trying to slowly accumulate with effective prices around $750. I would call what it has done a slow...

Neither is/was someone I would want to call a friend, but I do have plenty of second-hand Steve Jobs experience from way back. His actions were predictable, even if they were hurtful. He might have a vision, and his expectation was that people would support that vision, and he wanted smart...

At what price is Elon's personal line of credit at risk? I fear that is the point he starts getting a clue.

Well, I wasn't prepared for NVDA <$780. I can ride it out until earnings, but it sucks for now. For TSLA... the company really needs to work on messaging. Elon's compensation plan is one gross example of the company being out of sync on that message; it makes their market for selling cars and...

That is why we sometimes need to trim emotional positions... especially deep losses. Don't get me wrong; I have several stocks that I am down 90% or more that I don't bother selling, but I don't expect them to recover either.

Some of my worst decisions start with that thought.

The board might not be able to rein in what he says on twitter, but putting his shares in a trusteeship with a sale/withdrawl plan outlined 12 months in advance is not crazy when you are gifting someone $50B. (In the trusteeship type of structure, he says 12 months in advance how much money he...

Yeah, that caught me off guard. Questioning my NVDA stragtegy more as the price goes below $840. History tells me to keep a cool head, but it gets harder. Fundamentally I still believe that they are a great value and will be well over $1,200 in 9 months... but the path to get there is murky...

I'm fine with the compensation plan in theory, but practice has shown that Elon acts as an irresponsible shareholder in things like dumping TSLA shares for the twaddle purchase. His faux survey on paying taxes was also bad, but not the same magnitude. If he wants shareholder support for his...

The person that thought it was a good idea to put a data center in the south expansion of Austin is the one that needs to be fired; that is, was, and always will be an idiotic decision. I am guessing his name is Elon? The idea of extending the building is ...meh, but putting critical...

My personal opinion here, but I think we are seeing broad market skepticism first, sector skepticism second, and at current prices Tesla-specific skepticism is a distant third. Automotive is suffering badly; Ford has a bigger problem than Tesla for 1H, and the others aren't going to be much...

FWIW that was my exact position earlier this year; it has gotten harder in the past 2-3 weeks as a strategy. I essentially laddered about 7 weeks out, selling >10DTE ATM puts and then slowly picking my strike prices more carefully. While I made some reasonable change doing it, I did get...

What do you do for risk management; at what point do you decide to close if you got it wrong? (I know being right is better risk management, but we can't always depend on that...) I like my laddering strategies with short puts and calls, and leveraging theta more than delta, but I am never...

If I get a good chance I will. I am not 100% on what that would look like right now though.

I am an engineer-- but my opinion of Zack was considerably higher than of any engineer at the company.

Sadly, no. I can get behind investment in the [diversified] defense industry. I find some of the other things significantly worse on my moral scale. Less about stocks and more about other things.

I'm starting to feel like it would be "fun" to play the channel there, but might need to start on the baby asprin before to manage the blood pressure. I can feel the shift coming in the broader investment market... but I'm still at a loss on where the "smart money" will go. I think I might...

The rain yesterday was an interesting test for me with FSD. Did about 30 miles in heavy rain on north shore to Wahiawa and it performed better than I expected. Interestingly, there were less bells for degraded performance than with liquid sunshine. No 12.3.4 yet.

Yeah... we call it driving with aloha. It would be nice if there was an aloha mode especially to create gaps for people making left turns. Just like it would be nice to have a Los Angeles mode where...

$99 is the right price-- low enough to keep people interested after the free month, low enough to increase the price as performance increases, and high enough that it is material. To me, it gives credence to the idea that Tesla wasn't really interested in selling FSD last few Q's.

I think any real change there will be in Q3 or early Q4 personally. Through then they are almost guaranteed market leading earnings growth.

I get the Waimea bend on the north shore of Oahu. At least it has been a year since the road was closed due to a rockslide.

FWIW, you can file separate information in dispute with your consolidated 1099... but you will most likely get yourself audited if you aren't having a CPA file the taxes. If a CPA is doing it then maybe it is a 25% chance thing. I used to have a few complicated things with my taxes which left...

I'm happy you are! On the upshot, at least management is aware of the optics of a (presumably) miserable earnings call. Oh, and I get to try FSD in shi[f]ty rain today, likely mixed with a few tree limbs and maybe even a boulder or two... all in the search of caffeine and chiropractor.

I'm not hedging the downside much on NVDA personally. I'll be selling 10-15DTE ATM calls against any shares assigned, and keep writing puts up to my ladder limit. The premiums are solid enough that my effective cost basis YTD doesn't warrant a whole lot of extra insurance yet.

Drone videos make it clear there is a backup in the end-of-line/production hold CTs. This happens periodically and I don't think it is anything to be concerned about. I don't trust the VIN trackers; drone footage tells a clearer story. As far as risk to the stock, we aren't talking about...

That was generally expected; the helipad lot isn't the best environment for that work.

Yeah, things have been pretty good on the NVDA front. I put an order to close the 4/12 $900's for $4 which gives me about an 80% profit; less than that and I am happy to take the shares. When I made that post I had a little more risk than I realized with my ladder; I found myself in a position...

Yeah, Aiea was years late and grossly under-dimensioned. Interestingly (or not) I have met couple Uber drivers that use it exclusively, so it works for some people.

The pothole thing drives me nuts too... but for my driving the rest of your complaints sound like previous versions. FSD frequently and properly deals with road hazards above the road like a good human driver. A few things are not graceful yet-- the inching forward into a sudden decision that...

Did you get "disabled" or "degraded" with the annoying beeps? I have gotten the latter a few times, and the car just slowed down a little. Same thing, light rain otherwise reasonable conditions. Have not seen the former. I do not doubt that it is not robotaxi level now-- the number I throw...

I can't remember a period with such high lack of confidence in which direction/magnitude TSLA would move after a very clear indicator of top-line and gross margins in advance. The idea that a bad 3 quarters ahead for auto sales might actually be less important than FSD progress really mixes...

Well, from 12.3.2 to 12.3.3 was the difference between scary novelty and something useful for me. My only disappointment is the old FSD 11 highway stack still being around. I would guess they could train that in a couple weeks though... but I am grossly unqualified to estimate it.

Until they integrate the highway driving into the new model I don't think we have a huge remaining move potential; will that be the 12.4 stack? I am most curious about how big the addressable market is at ~$6k/$100 per month in the next 3-5 years.

Kind of wish the same happened to my 3 -p900's; a lot of great options to play today, but covering at a loss is not my strategy here. I feel well positioned going into earnings here. For TSLA it is still too hard for me to decide where to position. The FSD hype is strong (and IMO warranted)...

I wouldn't necessarily take the first announcement as the starting date... I would take somsone else saying Dojo was up and running (Karpathy). As I understand it, much of that timeline between then and now was in developing tools to work with the new architecture, and that is no small undertaking.

This is one of those times you have to ask yourself if the thesis has been proven wrong or the timing was just wrong. If it is timing you keep playing the game; but if it is the thesis you should sit out. My money is on the timing, so I will absorb my $900 -puts for this week and next week...

Fully understood (and priced into my assumptions). But... when did Tesla announce a chip that could compete with Nvidia on the data center space, and how much are they still spending a year on Nvidia chips? The moat Nvidia has is much deeper than the chips themselves, it is the tools as well...

I am struggling with the NVDA pessimism; is it a case of pessimism breeding more pessimism? Their Q1 should show significant growth QoQ and of course YoY. I get consolidation and all, but the negativity seems overblown on a two week horizon.

The problem with expecting take rates to increase is that $12k is a non-starter for most buyers; ~half the people out there actually enjoy driving, another significant portion is scared of an AI driving them, and of those that are left the idea of spending $200/month is too hard to justify...

If they get highway driving back up to autopilot level in 12.4 then I can see a path in the reasonably near future to what I hoped for when I bought in 2020. There is still a long way to go, but the amount of measurable improvement is huge. Short term it makes things harder to play with...