Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[mongo]

For me, the TSLA fundamentals didn't change, other than Musk saying he thought they'd sell more cars in 2024 than 2023 - a tall order if you ask me, requires 500k deliveries QoQ for the rest of the year, which I don't see happening, I'm not even sure they have the production capacity for that. Based on the numbers, TSLA should be $90 right now

You can be sure that they do.

2023: sales of 1,808,581 on production of 1,845,985
2024 Q1: sales of 386,810 on production of 433,371
To match 2023 requires1,421,771 sales or 473,924 a quarter (5% under 500k, but close).
Ignoring inventory drawdown, Tesla exceeded that production rate in both Q2 and Q4 2023.
Q2-Q4 was 1.4M, so only 20k of inventory is needed assuming flat production (Q1 added 50k to inventory).
Factoring in 50k of inventory and 30k Cybertrucks, it calls for 447k S3XY a quarter. 2023 averaged 463.5k a quarter.

 

[OrthoSurg]

You can be sure that they do.

2023: sales of 1,808,581 on production of 1,845,985
2024 Q1: sales of 386,810 on production of 433,371
To match 2023 requires1,421,771 sales or 473,924 a quarter (5% under 500k, but close).
Ignoring inventory drawdown, Tesla exceeded that production rate in both Q2 and Q4 2023.
Q2-Q4 was 1.4M, so only 20k of inventory is needed assuming flat production (Q1 added 50k to inventory).
Factoring in 50k of inventory and 30k Cybertrucks, it calls for 447k S3XY a quarter. 2023 averaged 463.5k a quarter.

My 6x 11DTE 162.50 CCs I sold yesterday are deep red but my 100x 110Jan2025 LEAPS are deep green again.

My 20x -p250 Jun2026 starts to have more intrinsic value back, less chance of being assigned finally

 

[Blue horseshoe]

Well not sure I'm worth asking for advice, given how I got shafted with the earnings! My thoughts, NFA...

For me, the TSLA fundamentals didn't change, other than Musk saying he thought they'd sell more cars in 2024 than 2023 - a tall order if you ask me, requires 500k deliveries QoQ for the rest of the year, which I don't see happening, I'm not even sure they have the production capacity for that. Based on the numbers, TSLA should be $90 right now

Not sure what numbers you're looking at, but the market does not agree with you. Neither does Ron Baron for that matter.

I know you and many others are very bearish on Tesla, but even your skepticism on production capacity is misplaced as Mongo has pointed out. I don't think Tesla should be at $90 right now and I certainly wouldn't be placing option trades to trade on that thesis

 

[Max Plaid]

Given my scepticism on the current situation, I'm looking to roll my July +p150's out to January. I was initially thinking to do an aggressive put sell for next week, -p175 or -p180, sell the July's and use the monies collected to sell the January

However, that strikes me as quite risky, so now thinking instead to go steady, keep hold of the July +p150's, sell sensible weeklies, like -p165's, and leg into the new position over the remaining 10x expiries on the current +p150, then if it does head sound in the interim, I have both the July and January positions to cover the roll down

Still in play for this week:

100x -p165 -> looking to straight-roll the same strike
25x -c160 -> likely push out to May -c170's, the roll to September on these isn't so interesting from 160

Looking to add 5x Dec 2026 +c200 LEAPS, then the 45x -c190's are fully covered with the existing Jun 2025 +c200's and some room to roll. Dec 2025 +c200 free to sell in case of higher SP

 

[Max Plaid]

Not sure what numbers you're looking at, but the market does not agree with you. Neither does Ron Baron for that matter.

I know you and many others are very bearish on Tesla, but even your skepticism on production capacity is misplaced as Mongo has pointed out. I don't think Tesla should be at $90 right now and I certainly wouldn't be placing option trades to trade on that thesis

Yeah, I'm bearish based on Q1 being total garbage, I don't get why everyone's pretending otherwise, it was beyond bad

And I still don't see any adequate explanation as to why Tesla delivered 50k cars less than they produced

Anyway, Q2 will present a much clearer picture, we will see!

I'm certainly not positioning for $90, despite feeling we should have gone there after earnings, but I'm protecting against it and giving myself the opportunity to sell weekly puts without fear

 

[Patrick66]

Yeah, I'm bearish based on Q1 being total garbage, I don't get why everyone's pretending otherwise, it was beyond bad

Your concerns are valid, just watch the blinders. Anecdote: I am renting a RAV4 for a couple weeks for travel and I have no idea why anyone would buy one over a Y. With rebates comparable costs, but significant operating savings and quality improvements with the Tesla. This suggests to me that Tesla's addressable market is still huge, but they really need to work on the message. That is the only thing really missing for growth.

From an options play we do our best to not be too pessimistic or optimistic, but keep a balanced view and leverage things we can control.

 

[Jim Holder]

UPDATE 2-US probes Tesla recall of 2 million vehicles over Autopilot, citing concerns

U.S. auto safety regulators said Friday they have opened an investigation into whether Tesla's recall of more than 2 million vehicles announced in December to install new Autopilot safeguards is adequate. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) said it was opening an...

finance.yahoo.com

 

[CHGolferJim]

Surprised by this week’s price action, but that’s a fairly typical situation most weeks…….

Have the following 0DTE CC:

• $145 — shares purchased last week at $144 + $5 sto intended as a buy-write = $6 profit; will probably let these assign, then rebuy shares and sto a 4DTE ATM on Monday for ~$4; rolling at $145 would barely scrape out a credit for 1-3 weeks, and rolling out 6 months or so to get ATM seems unlikely to match weekly income
• $155 — if ITM at 3pm, roll to 3May$155 for small credit and watch next week’s action, expect shares to retrace $15+ in coming weeks, so will roll weekly until they hopefully intersect
• $162.50 — same, ~$2.15 credit vs. $0.35 to push to $165

And 7DTE at $165.

Once I get out from under these with minimal cost, the low range of annual income target will be secured, so will change to more cautious and simplified CC selling, something like 10-11 DTE 20% OTM.

 

[Jim Holder]

U.S PERSONAL INCOME (MOM) (MAR) ACTUAL: 0.5% VS 0.3% PREVIOUS; EST 0.5%

U.S PERSONAL SPENDING (MOM) (MAR) ACTUAL: 0.8% VS 0.8% PREVIOUS; EST 0.6%

U.S PCE PRICE INDEX (MOM) (MAR) ACTUAL: 0.3% VS 0.3% PREVIOUS; EST 0.3%

U.S PCE PRICE INDEX (YOY) (MAR) ACTUAL: 2.7% VS 2.5% PREVIOUS; EST 2.6%

U.S CORE PCE PRICE INDEX (MOM) (MAR) ACTUAL: 0.3% VS 0.3% PREVIOUS; EST 0.3%

U.S CORE PCE PRICE INDEX (YOY) (MAR) ACTUAL: 2.8% VS 2.8% PREVIOUS; EST 2.6%

 

[Yoona]

it does look like the p150s are shrinking, flipped into c150 5/31

 

[DaBooster]

U.S PERSONAL INCOME (MOM) (MAR) ACTUAL: 0.5% VS 0.3% PREVIOUS; EST 0.5%

U.S PERSONAL SPENDING (MOM) (MAR) ACTUAL: 0.8% VS 0.8% PREVIOUS; EST 0.6%

U.S PCE PRICE INDEX (MOM) (MAR) ACTUAL: 0.3% VS 0.3% PREVIOUS; EST 0.3%

U.S PCE PRICE INDEX (YOY) (MAR) ACTUAL: 2.7% VS 2.5% PREVIOUS; EST 2.6%

U.S CORE PCE PRICE INDEX (MOM) (MAR) ACTUAL: 0.3% VS 0.3% PREVIOUS; EST 0.3%

U.S CORE PCE PRICE INDEX (YOY) (MAR) ACTUAL: 2.8% VS 2.8% PREVIOUS; EST 2.6%

 

[BornToFly]

UPDATE 2-US probes Tesla recall of 2 million vehicles over Autopilot, citing concerns

U.S. auto safety regulators said Friday they have opened an investigation into whether Tesla's recall of more than 2 million vehicles announced in December to install new Autopilot safeguards is adequate. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) said it was opening an...

finance.yahoo.com

Never so happy to see FUD pre-market. Might actually save my CCs!!!

 

[Jim Holder]

today at 3:59

View attachment 1041795

@Yoona When you get a chance can you pls explain how to extract useful information from these grids? They always hurt my brain at first glance.

 

[dl003]

bogus news. could be bear trap. this is still trading higher than before the late day squeeze yesterday. At this point, unless its a full blown reversal, Id treat every pullback as a bear trap.

 

[EVMeister]

Unfortunate author name.

 

[BornToFly]

bogus news. could be bear trap. this is still trading higher than before the late day squeeze yesterday. At this point, unless its a full blown reversal, Id treat every pullback as a bear trap.View attachment 1041946

So do you think we close green today? Close CCs at any dip at the open?

 

[Yoona]

Never so happy to see FUD pre-market. Might actually save my CCs!!!

macros are in your favour (that's how Canadians spell it!)

SPY/SPX weak, it was up yesterday because IV fell after the GDP report, but it still in -gex

when IV falls, the 0dte puts get sold off and we have rebound as buyers started to cover

if these are hot next week, 1 rate cut in Dec probably becomes 0 and 2/10-yr bonds will creep up again (ie equities fall)

 

[Jim Holder]

Next FOMC meeting
Next Tuesday-Wednesday
April 30-May 1

 

[Yoona]

@Yoona When you get a chance can you pls explain how to extract useful information from these grids? They always hurt my brain at first glance.

View attachment 1041945

bullish

nothing changed in TSLA except sentiment, i am still not convinced it will last (happy to be wrong!)

 

[Jim Holder]

bullish

nothing changed in TSLA except sentiment, i am still not convinced it will last (happy to be wrong!)

I meant can you explain what you look at on the chart to make an assessment.