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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
NFA. Ok, I’m going to put out a totally contrarian statement here, and it’s VERY low probability, and almost certain NOT to occur - but here it is.
I could see a further drop (you’ve heard that here and from me and others enough), and E could tell a bad story, and that could lead to another drop and we could retest lows and test LOWER lows… BUT.
I think there is an odd out of the sky chance that that downward movement could produce one HECK of a rally, from shorts taking their profits (is anyone NOT short at this point) and from a huge amount of buyers coming in with $BB that is waiting for this oigoing correction/pricing reset.
And we could rally THROUGH the $200 hard ceiling to what would be ~ $211-215 by my charts and maths before resetting back to THESE current levels, or a bit higher. And for timing, sometime in the next 30-45 days. So, the point is, pick your strikes, premium and expiration AND your shotgun ready to fire if a black swan appears.
I know, crazy, right? But ~5% of the time the stock does move ~ 18-20%, or more. It would be one for the record books for sure. But sometimes, stranger things have happened.
UPDATE: I see @Yoona posted something while I was typing, and once again we seem to be in harmony with at least risk permutation development..
For sure. The idea is to close after 4/23 on any weakness <$170
Decided this AM to spend the weekend traveling, so just BTC'ed the 40x 4/5 $885 after today's very nice jump up to just book the profit and have one less thing to even be wondering about while relaxing. Still think NVDA will be in a nice place over the next week or so (NFA, of course). @Patrick66, hopefully you are feeling more comfortable today than you were yesterday. Have a great weekend, everyone.
@Patrick66 - I haven't been following your trades closely, and it's not yet 4/12, but 4/11 is indeed higher than 4/5, and your 4/12 $800 sold puts should be basically free to close at near-100% profit, and your 4/12 $900 sold puts should now be profitable to close as well (unless your basis was extremely poor). There's always the hope of collecting the full premium by waiting for tomorrow, but with NVDA currently at $897.80 it might be worth considering just closing things out now. NFA, of course.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Thanks. Interesting to see the
action moving from 4/19 to 5/3 (vs. 4/26) perhaps to preserve theta.Also lots of green there too, perhaps to catch any squeeze from short profit taking
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Or it can just be cheap per month when it sucked and then gradually become more expensive as it becomes more capable. It was ridiculous for people to pay 200 a month for V10 or v11 when it's probably worth 30 to 40 bucks a month just foe the novelty. Tesla left a lot of money on the table then.
As v13 or 14 begins to be near hands free, then go to 79 or 99. And once Tesla takes responsibility for crashes then you can charge 249 or whatever you desire.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Did that on the X this morning and almost read ended a Car at a red light.How many already do this without FSD
AEB actually beeps.
That's why it worth $49.99 a month and not $200 yet.
The Y drove a lot better on the FSD 12.3.3. Newer cameras I think.
Agree.
I think we all can agree that there's much better ways for monetization strategy for FSD as it is right now and going forward where it will be in 1 year, 2 years, etc...I think we're all on the same page in that Tesla's strategy and implementation so far is been downright lacking and disappointing
We can also all agree that there are simple things Tesla can do to change their strategy where FSD adoption rate could begin a massive S curve and TSLA would get a much higher valuation. Strategies that could also help offset margin pressure on the auto side.
Tesla's FSD strategy continues to be the most annoying thing to me when it comes to management.
Enough certainly do, but getting past over the IN CABIN camera picking up on driver distraction has made it very difficult if even quite safely to do.How many already do this without FSD
Yeah, things have been pretty good on the NVDA front. I put an order to close the 4/12 $900's for $4 which gives me about an 80% profit; less than that and I am happy to take the shares.
When I made that post I had a little more risk than I realized with my ladder; I found myself in a position where exercise would push me into margin more than I intended and faster than I intended if NVDA stayed under ~$870 through earnings.
My strategy is a little different than what is normally advocated here; I am willing to accept higher risk for higher return, but on a small percentage of my portfolio. I am pushed that direction by the fact that most of my holdings are in Tesla and Apple and they haven't been doing great the past ~two years. Selling options is a good way to scratch back and keep my interest level up to make sure I am making good portfolio decisions. (Unfortunately it is screwing up my sleep patterns... the one downside of living in Hawaii.)
True. Though I was surprised to read this morning that pre in-cabin camera Teslas got FSD 12.3.x. That's odd!
How'd they get that past regulators?
Is it normal for a dog eating kibble having a fleet of Teslas?
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
SPX-staircase is nearing the next fall-off point, or signal that this was a fakey-dip and not really the first steps of performing the fib .38 or .50 correction yet, even after 91 days being in an uptrend even above 50MA.
Seems like we need a black swan event to make it happen. It is all looking weak now and the lack of follow-through by $TSLA not so overwhelming, so I am thinking about using the ongoing bounce for exit on some of my recently taken positions.
PS yesterday I closed both -C SMCI positions with 51 and 19 dollars of profit. Lost 5 of that today on a MSTR-bet that went wrong. Because of BTC turning up unexpectedly (but from a supportline that I drew beforehand, so I should have known better.
Seems like we need a black swan event to make it happen. It is all looking weak now and the lack of follow-through by $TSLA not so overwhelming, so I am thinking about using the ongoing bounce for exit on some of my recently taken positions.
PS yesterday I closed both -C SMCI positions with 51 and 19 dollars of profit. Lost 5 of that today on a MSTR-bet that went wrong. Because of BTC turning up unexpectedly (but from a supportline that I drew beforehand, so I should have known better.
Too much detailed technical FSD discussion here, two pages already. We have dedicated FSD threads and the main thread for these kind of discussions.
This is not the first such message. I’d hate to delete posts.
This is not the first such message. I’d hate to delete posts.
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