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Associating genius with losses is just a coincidence in your opinion? No condescendence? I did not realize how delicate are the souls populating this thread to get offended from the word sleazy associated to a remark, not a person. I was waiting for the moment people here cannot take the heat...

Genius is a rare species and it's usually recognized after one's death. What I may have in common with JP related to your sleazy remark, is experience. It's the thing you have 15 minutes after you need it. - - - Updated - - - OK, I barely have the time to quickly check new posts, did not see...

Even in my initial post using the word I said I do not see that as derogatory, give me a "name" that you like for Tesla fans and I'll use it. That one was particularly condensed between infantry fighter for the Musk's cause and Tesla fan, with a funny twist. First, I'm not trying to hurt...

This was a deliberated choice of words to illustrate my previous comment (using the same funny word) where i explained how this goes. Hordes of them come and shoot one crooked arrow, miss the target and then go back into the black forest. But in aggregate, they build "credibility" here :)

If you had payed attention to the discussion, there was a Musketeer who initiated the comparison to GM. After the facts proved there was an erroneous factor of 20x in his "easy dismissal" ... crickets!

It's not about balls. It's about time and energy. While I have to filter at least 10x harder here than what I get reading JP's articles and comments, I have some fun (even laughter sometimes) and confirmation (most of the time) about my hypothesis about the human mind / emotions and the way that...

This is why I have posted this link earlier, GM has a sales multiplier in the vicinity of 0.3x, not 5-7x Tesla Investors Are Crazier Than Elon Musk (TSLA) Tesla has 180 times the valuation of GM per car sold. Of course, the ASP is now about 4-5x (included in my rough estimates as a multiple of...

Voting with your wallet, as far as I understand English, is about buying products, not shares - and that may indeed make a huge difference for a company. Trying to influence market prices with your wallet, even as a community, is like going out in sandals trying to stop the rain and call the sun...

Investing is a blood sport, not a charity. When you vote with your wallet (translation: invest from emotion), sooner or later the wolves on Wall Street will skin you alive. - - - Updated - - - Yep, that's about two years ago, when TSLA was in the low $20s and was about a 10x. But I was talking...

"To understand why the hype cycle happens again and again with each new innovation, and why it keeps seducing even those of us who have been burned before, we must look more deeply at what drives the rise and fall of expectations that create the cycle. In a theoretical, completely rational...

You will probably understand when it will be too late. After all this talk, you come back with the turkey argument ?!? Let's agree to disagree and leave it here.

I was indeed wrong about that PbC life cycle thing. It's not that I did not know what cycle life is, but I did not know those "cycles" they measured in the micro-hybrid test were only a few %. And I have acknowledged my error and the fact that you were right. Unless there is some miracle in...

First, let me tell you how refreshing is to hear about facts around here. Then, if you also remember, I have stressed several times that JP should be used mostly as a data source wrt to Tesla, not as a crystal ball. Especially with stock price predictions. Everyone should have their own...

There are several things that happened during the last 2-3 years. I used to think too green and to feel guilty whenever I traveled long distances for my work or took the car instead of public transport. I used to think that at least the second part can be "solved" by some EV (not only for me...

Yep, I have the feeling that comments only on TMC are the property of the commenter and should not be cited without written permission ;)

So what did he say about your instablog?

While I think you intervention does not deserves any answer, it seems to me you have a hate problem, rather than me. That would be on top of an honesty problem, I have not seen any sign of hate in what you point out. You still owe me something and I won't answer anything else from you until I...

I do not have my Model S yet ;) - - - Updated - - - Thanks for confirming my brain is not in foul state, the last few posts (not yours) were somehow sending me back to high school when we were discussing for hours what friendship, love and justice is ... I started suspecting there is something...

If you say so, be it. I still do not understand your point. Have you missed my comment when I said JP was wrong in that case?

That may have been the reason the story looked a bit bizarre. I had no intention to accuse you of anything, I'm sorry if you perceived my question otherwise.

Congrats! If I start a short play, I will be prepared to be wrong several times, even all of them, because there is no way to time a bubble burst. But sometimes you just have to play the odds if you aim for outsized gains. - - - Updated - - - dsm363, brianman - you may have got my intentions /...

If that would be a recent thing that I saw happening, I might (sometimes one has to weight the cost and the gain of such thing; we met once and exchange PM every month or two, it's not like we're engaged and have to solve all potential clouds before some important event). JP has 25k comments and...

I am not accusing anyone here. I just wanted to better understand the situation from the only person who knows and would agree to speak about the incident. I will definitely not open up old things like that, I had my own altercations with JP (about Tesla, obviously). My friend or not, no one is...

You can delete your own comments, but only for a few minutes after posting them. Are you sure it was not some kind of misunderstanding before things heated up? Once a "fight" starts, it is very hard to know who hit who and why.

Tesla has done impossible things. Never before even a normal car (let alone the best car on so many levels) has been put together in such a short time, starting from no team, no factory, nothing. Shorts were betting that even if Tesla is exceptionally good, there will be big problems and they...

This is indeed his fault (if things are as you say, I have no reason to believe otherwise, but no hard proof either - please note that he cannot decide to delete comments, only to report them to SA, and anybody could report "abuses"). He is definitely not a scientist or an engineer, and if he...

Even when he said that in TSLA's price a flawless future is assumed? Could you please agree that this is emotional investing and it's blind fate?

JRP3, this is a rant, not a serious study. No wonder the only other commenter is Julian Cox. I am no expert in this so I tend to trust studies like this by teams of experts who take a large range of aspects into consideration http://www.transportation.anl.gov/pdfs/B/644.PDF If you want a...

What JP argued in his last article is that some tech is in its twilight (not all batteries, of course, just this format 18650). He may be wrong, but most data we have suggest not. Tesla will find itself at a crossroad and the choices do not look rosy in the mid-term. Long-term, most problems can...

I did not plan to get so involved into this discussion, and while I still feel a bit of uneasy opposition, it is much better than my previous experience here and I had some fun exchanging with you guys. I am not sure my input is wanted so I may just wait and see. As for the topic, it is about...

Well, let's attempt a simple computation. One 3.4Ah 3.6V means 12.24 Wh, even if not all that energy is squeezable from the cell. Use the 455 multiplier you find in the linked study, that means about 5.57 kWh used to make that cell, including materials. What is the price of electricity during...

that's why I stressed those were the first comments on the article; whatever occurred elsewhere between them, should stay there; that's exactly one of my arguments, they are chemically impaired, but the chemicals' source is in their own brain JP is my friend (not my lover LOL), but I try to...

Dan5, everybody cherry picks data. Most our decisions are made subconsciously and the rational part of the brain is working just to rationalize those choices (psychological experiments of simple choices like right / left show that the decision is taken about 7 seconds before we even know we have...

neoden, have you checked the link I provided wrt valuation? even at 200k / y Model S + Model X, today's valuation is very rich. But it is here today, and 200k luxury cars per year is just one of many possible futures. Have you asked yourself at what price would TSLA be overvalued in 2013? What...

Dan5, I have tried to explain what I understood from the floppy disk metaphor in my previous comment. I do not think I have much of value to add to that. As for the costs of raw materials, at the beginning of his article, JP mentions "The detail in this article is courtesy of my friends at...

Zythryn, I am not sure you understood the metaphor (I had a hard time in the beginning, too), it's about the 18650 format, not about Tesla's battery pack. And it's not so much (but maybe a bit, due to rigid manufacturing constraints) related to the technical capabilities of those cells, but...

Dan5, that's what I meant with "obsessing over details and fighting for each small issue in isolation". Whatever the names of manufacturers or the exact composition of cells, cells are interchangeable in applications and many basic materials are common to families of cells that can be optimized...

Sebastian, I see we have some similar feelings. I'm afraid a serious and emotionless discussion / wiki is not possible in practice with those rivers of hormones flowing around us. Even if you try to get on even ground, talking for example only what exists today, instead of what could be...

Brian, I have no intention to start a crusade in JP's name. I am not accusing anybody on the other side either. If 5% of the people who read this thread manage to look at the problem from a different point of view and gain some perspective, I am very happy. For that, I am even ready to take some...

I had no intention to "defend" JP, he definitely does not need that and cannot care less about what people on TMC think about him. Most people do not try to understand or bring counter-arguments, they simply try to fight the person and burry the message in noisy BS. Example: his last article. He...

I don't really like to discuss persons. I think he just has had to develop a thick skin on SA and has not much patience with cocksure newbies (who repeat other's newbies same tired arguments hundreds of times).

Just because I have discussed General Fusion, here is a recent phone interview with the CEO Clean Break General Fusion builds credibility on its ambitious path to demonstrate affordable fusion power for the masses

98% of your wealth and you keep it invested in a bubble play? I think the odds of halving are an order of magnitude higher than doubling from $170 (but people are strange creatures and a bubbles can go as high as your trading platform has digits to represent) not more than 25% or in the extreme...

First, I was only answering to MikeC about JP the person, not the blogger. Second, since the beginning, I realized / believed JP does not get Tesla. That was a big reason for me to go and see him, to find out why, because I was starting a serious investing project around Tesla. He thought that...

After "fighting" on SA for several months, while staying polite, he was very kind to invite me and my family to his previous very nice place Fribourg : Le chteau de Barbereche He is very funny, friendly and generous but would not tolerate any kind of abuse or unfounded vociferous comments from...

If I can give an advice in exchange, sell enough of TSLA so that profits pay for your car after tax. Then even in the worst case you keep your sweet ride for free. Maxing out leverage and going on margin is begging for disaster. In the best case, you just gain a bit less but sleep much better in...

Thanks for the advice, but I've got my sweet profits from TSLA at the best possible time (being crushed by AAPL). If it goes above $180 in the short term, I will get back in, but this time with puts :) - I still admire the company, execution, want to buy the car - have seen my configuration in...

With Axion, you can call me investor. I may sell after the first 10x or so some shares to cover initial investment and tax, but the bigger part of my investment will not be unloaded below $10 - that will be several years from now and I started accumulating 25 months ago. With Tesla and Apple, I...

smorgasbord, when you say you would not invest even if you knew it is a good bet, this is emotion; I can understand emotions like avoiding oil, guns or tobacco companies (I do too), but they are emotions nonetheless; other type of emotion I see around here, this time a very dangerous one, is to...

Yep, that's why the price more or less halved this summer so I could get so many cheap shares (it seems the "strategic partner" wanted to "help" them in exchange of 60% of the company or so, therefore plan B). There is a Chinese proverb that in every crisis there is opportunity. The...