sleepyhead
Active Member
Even when he said that in TSLA's price a flawless future is assumed?
Could you please agree that this is emotional investing and it's blind fate?
No it's not, I did my research and TSLA is still a bargain at these prices (unless we hit a recession/bear market, which we won't).
Tesla has done impossible things. Never before even a normal car (let alone the best car on so many levels) has been put together in such a short time, starting from no team, no factory, nothing. Shorts were betting that even if Tesla is exceptionally good, there will be big problems and they will get rich. Tesla's team was way above that level and shorts lost. Btw, Model X has already been delayed by one year or so.
But as you say, perfection is priced in. And even Tesla is not perfect and they act in a given economical and physical world and even them cannot walk on water. If only Model X was priced to perfection, it would not be so bad. But Model E (Gen3) is priced in to perfection. This should be scary for over-leveraged longs.
You are completely wrong on this. We know Model S demand is above 50k worldwide and if Model X is the same you will have 100k cars sold at ASP of $100k for annualized sales of $10bn just 2 or 3 years from now (this is your "perfect execution" scenario). $20bn market cap and $10bn in sales = 2x price to sales multiple which is a bargain for a company like Tesla. Oh, and this means that Model E is a free option at current prices and Model S/X isn't even priced for perfection.
I am trying to figure out a plan to short it (with puts) even if a rational economic agent would simply stay away from a bubble
This is nothing personal, I do admire Tesla, but they are still far from a $20B company.
We had this discussion prior to Q2 earnings when Tesla was around $110 - $120. I was buying calls and you told me I was wrong and you were buying puts. Turns out I was right and if you do buy puts, you are going to be wrong again.