First, I was only answering to MikeC about JP the person, not the blogger.
Second, since the beginning, I realized / believed JP does not get Tesla. That was a big reason for me to go and see him, to find out why, because I was starting a serious investing project around Tesla. He thought that it's virtually impossible to produce such a nice car with batteries (especially 18650), that they do not have the experience to avoid crushing delays (there were many delays that people tend to forget with time, but those were manageable). He thought that the car would not be safe, but doing a probability analysis with independent small cells, it is more probable that we will al die from a huge asteroid than a Model S to explode - all that if you really believe the cells are prevented from chain reaction. He thought that they will have bad recalls. We all know now about the quality and safety of the product.
He thought that they will run in huge problems with suppliers. That was half right until now, as the ramp-up was slowed down mostly for that reason and it's the main frustration of Elon's interventions in earnings calls for the last 5 quarters or so. But the jury is still open for the huge quantities of batteries needed for the Gen3. And one can ask why worry today about Gen3 when Model S and Model X seem on a very nice ramp-up path? First, it is because not only Gen3 is already priced into the share price, moreover, Gen3 is priced as a huge success. Should there be a period with large dark clouds about this future, TSLA will crash and burn by the time the sun comes back. Also, the environmental argument, if there is no (hugely successful) Gen3, Tesla will not have any kind of impact in the big picture.
I have always argued that Tesla will / could succeed as a premium car manufacturer and until now it did so quite spectacularly. But as a massive car manufacturer? I do not know, that's why I read both sides of the argument and use my (biased) filters. What I try to tell others, the stock is priced for perfection and by the time this perfection is confirmed (large quantities of Gen3 sold, 4-5 years in the future), the stock behavior will surpass even the wildest imagination. If you are not a battlefield hardened warrior, take at least some profits, cover your initial investment, your Model S and tax. Let the remainder run and see where it goes if you will.
If you check nasdaq.com, you will see insiders are having a blast selling their shares and that institutional interest went down by 10M shares in Q2, that is net of the public offering in May (so maybe 15M or so shares unloaded in 3 months). When those guys (investment funds, banks, hedge funds) will have made it big on those inflated shares, they will change direction, push negative stories and what not, and double their gains on the way down. All that is not some kind of prophecy, it may never happen, but if it does (I think it is at least 50% chance), all dreams will go up in smoke in less than 4.4s.