sleepyhead
Active Member
Nicu - I believe that you wrote an article a year or two ago about TSLA being a potential 10 or 20 bagger opportunity. I have never read the article myself so I am not sure about its content, but it sounds like you had it right the first time.
The sad thing is that you did a 180 and have turned bearish. Instead you should have continued pumping up TSLA and you could have been the guy who called TSLA early and rode it all the way up into the 4 digits. Time will tell, but I think you "screwed the pooch" on this one.
TSLA is not overvalued right now and I gave you a simply calculation a few pages back to show why it is still a good idea to buy TSLA at $160. Now I am going to use one of your "optimistic" numbers and pick a one year sample:
TSLA makes 500k units in 2017 or 2018, whatever it is it really doesn't matter - 2019 works as well. Let's say 100k S and X for $10bn in revenue. Another $20bn for 400k of Gen 3. That gives you $30bn in revenue and a company that is still growing like crazy at that point. You are looking at a 2x - 5x price/sales ratio or up to $150bn TSLA valuation in 5 years. IMO it might take a little longer than 5 years to reach 500k units, but you really never know with this company.
Using your numbers I get a $60bn - $150bn valuation, while you get a $5bn valuation; albeit my valuation is 5 years from now and yours is discounted back to today. Mine discounted back would be like $30bn - $60bn, i.e. still a great buy at $20bn market cap.. This just shows how skewed the views are of the longs and shorts. The correct answer is probably somewhere in the middle.
All I know for sure (95% chance) is the TSLA will have a $100bn+ market cap eventually and probably a lot more. That is still a 5-10 bagger opportunity. It might take 5 years or it might take 10 years. 10 bagger in 10 years is still a great investment, even a 5 bagger in 10 years is awesome. So the real question is do you want to buy today at $165 and get a 5 - 10 bagger in 5 to 10 years or do you want to sit on the other side of the trade and whine about how much TSLA is overvalued?
Shorts are going to get crushed again and it is going to be legendary.
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I have no idea, but if I had to guess without googling it, I would say that JP wrote this.
I don't really read any JP articles, because I get annoyed after a few sentences, but I can envision JP saying something like this. Whoever wrote this probably thinks that he/she is a superior human being. That is the kind of vibe I get from reading this, and it does not hold true in every example. TSLA would be the greatest exception. People are not even close to over-hyping Tesla yet. Tesla is under-hyped right now. It will be a lot better than the vast majority of people can imagine.
The sad thing is that you did a 180 and have turned bearish. Instead you should have continued pumping up TSLA and you could have been the guy who called TSLA early and rode it all the way up into the 4 digits. Time will tell, but I think you "screwed the pooch" on this one.
TSLA is not overvalued right now and I gave you a simply calculation a few pages back to show why it is still a good idea to buy TSLA at $160. Now I am going to use one of your "optimistic" numbers and pick a one year sample:
TSLA makes 500k units in 2017 or 2018, whatever it is it really doesn't matter - 2019 works as well. Let's say 100k S and X for $10bn in revenue. Another $20bn for 400k of Gen 3. That gives you $30bn in revenue and a company that is still growing like crazy at that point. You are looking at a 2x - 5x price/sales ratio or up to $150bn TSLA valuation in 5 years. IMO it might take a little longer than 5 years to reach 500k units, but you really never know with this company.
Using your numbers I get a $60bn - $150bn valuation, while you get a $5bn valuation; albeit my valuation is 5 years from now and yours is discounted back to today. Mine discounted back would be like $30bn - $60bn, i.e. still a great buy at $20bn market cap.. This just shows how skewed the views are of the longs and shorts. The correct answer is probably somewhere in the middle.
All I know for sure (95% chance) is the TSLA will have a $100bn+ market cap eventually and probably a lot more. That is still a 5-10 bagger opportunity. It might take 5 years or it might take 10 years. 10 bagger in 10 years is still a great investment, even a 5 bagger in 10 years is awesome. So the real question is do you want to buy today at $165 and get a 5 - 10 bagger in 5 to 10 years or do you want to sit on the other side of the trade and whine about how much TSLA is overvalued?
Shorts are going to get crushed again and it is going to be legendary.
- - - Updated - - -
"To understand why the hype cycle happens again and again with each new innovation, and why it keeps seducing even those of us who have been burned before, we must look more deeply at what drives the rise and fall of expectations that create the cycle.
In a theoretical, completely rational world ruled by logic, excitement about an innovation would track perfectly with the reality of what the innovation could do. As the performance of the innovation improved, and as people's understanding of how to derive value from it evolved, people would become increasingly confident about it, and their adoption of it would grow. [...] in the real world, wonderful, warm, passionate human beings repeatedly develop levels of excitement and disillusionment that don't match the current reality of what the innovation can do."
My first impulse was to offer a real world prize for the first to identify the source, but Google is simply ruining the joy of that kind of games. Anyway, the chapter explaining why this happens with regularity and predictable results if full of gold nuggets, I wholeheartedly recommend it.
I have no idea, but if I had to guess without googling it, I would say that JP wrote this.
I don't really read any JP articles, because I get annoyed after a few sentences, but I can envision JP saying something like this. Whoever wrote this probably thinks that he/she is a superior human being. That is the kind of vibe I get from reading this, and it does not hold true in every example. TSLA would be the greatest exception. People are not even close to over-hyping Tesla yet. Tesla is under-hyped right now. It will be a lot better than the vast majority of people can imagine.