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Futures trading when markets are closed tomorrow. Interesting.

Patience is very hard. That put roll is one that I definitely would have taken for an $8 credit. Intraday price action, by design, is trying to hurt the most participants possible. TA is much more about closing prices than intraday lows and highs.

You answered your own question. Time value is precisely that extrinsic value.

Paging @The Accountant Rob’s latest video seems to indicate that we actually have production numbers for January Shanghai 68,117 representing the largest difference between production and wholesale numbers. Also represents record production.

For those without Twitter. Form 5 showing that Elon has donated 5M shares. That may actually have caused some weakness in shares as the recipient entity (likely a charity), would likely have liquidated the shares in receipt.

The market wants to cause maximum pain to all participants.

Not quite: https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-4Q-21.pdf The source material has sales by brand and Toyota still owns the highest market share as a whole. More market share for Tesla to gain!

And stated explicitly in writing in their impact report: https://www.tesla.com/ns_videos/2020-tesla-impact-report.pdf

I believe the increase may have to do with them adjusting the reserve for resale value guarantees. With how high resale values are they decreased the probability of someone actually invoking that guarantee. Also, tax valuation allowance is now north of 9B was 2.xB almost all driven by Elon’s...

Large enterprise will be mostly unaffected, since they’ll just pay whatever market rate is for shipments (rounding error to their COGS) or will continue to vertically integrate critical parts of their supply chain. SMBs that can’t accurately forecast demand will be crushed. Not particularly...

After doing some homework. Selling CCs would basically make it a collar. Not a bad idea. I could just keep selling them at 1100 strikes since that would be where I get to unwind the whole thing and crystallize all my cumulative premium profits anyways. Would be a nice way to offset the cost of...

I’m lucky in that my low cost basis shares are in registered accounts. So these shares actually have a near 1100 cost basis. I do plan to sell CCs eventually, but not while this feels like a coiled spring though, and also need to unpack how CC’s would work against married puts. Currently I have...

This was an annoying week. Early assigned on 53x 1100/960 BPS. Now sitting on those 5300 shares with married puts. Rolled the married puts to 940p 02/11. Tried to reverse the assignment and roll them back to BPS, but brokerage wouldn’t allow for it. Turns out they consider very different margin...

I’ll need to confirm, but a similar investment held under IFRS or Canadian GAAP would be revalued at each balance sheet date. With fluctuations impacting EPS. That is whether they sell the position or not. The only difference on presentation between sold versus still held, is whether it...

Fun fact. GM posted 2.8B in automotive FCF for 2021. Oh wait… that includes 3.5B of dividends paid from GM Finance to auto… so your core auto business actually loses money? Oh and their auto specific debt (excluding Finance) is now larger than their available assets. This is going to get ugly...

Yep cost of developing FSD won’t hit COGS. It’ll hit R&D and other operating expenses (like depreciation). It’s basically why software is always touted as high margins. Mainly because the internal cost to “produce” the software is counted as a COGS. Only the input costs sourced externally to...

You wait for price action confirmation. The next couple sessions will confirm whether we get rejected at resistance trend lines or whether we break through them and confirm a bull cycle. If QQQs break and close above 370 I’ll be repositioning some smaller positions in speculative growth. It...

I refer you to the currently unfolding case of Daimler. Now rebranding purely to Mercedes-Benz, going “fully electric”, and a CEO who just talks about increasing their multiple (who cares about execution right Mary?). All after carving out their profitable truck business. $1,201 discounted back...

The weekly chart was also one big hammer. Crypto also having a little rally. Could bode well for next week. I also find this YTers daily TA Analysis to be quite good. He also does a weekend analysis that takes a look at weekly trends: https://youtube.com/channel/UCUP_ao_7-Yct5FcVIA4Kobg

Interesting. I have calculated it a few times previously and it seemed to be 50%. I’ll check next week to see what it’s doing now. Have to admit the lack of transparency on a lot of these calculations is quite annoying.

That was quite the week. Closed 34x 1275 ccs for 98%. No new position entered. Closed 40x 800/770 BPS for 60%, couldn't wait longer as I needed to free up the margin to be able to have enough margin to be able to roll two different batches. Due to the sequence of transactions wasn't able to do...

This would be the first time it appears and is this level of material. The payroll tax is related to Elon’s exercising of options. Each exercise results in a payroll tax (likely some sort of social security or health tax) that has to be paid by Tesla. Given Q4 was when 10 of 12 tranches were...

You’ll be surprised how much of that $10 doesn’t evaporate if the SP is closeby. Premium has a habit of holding on to the bitter end when volatility is high and closer to the money you are. Now it will absolutely evaporate if SP is heading in the opposite direction.

I’m loaded up on 1100 BPS, so I won’t be the one talking you in to those ;)

Futures green. BTC green. Could bode well.

Impacts PE and is a permanent structural change to EPS going forward. People can say it gets backed out, but it’s a major inflection point for a business as it effectively means management expects significant future profitability for the foreseeable future.

I much prefer people talk about current average P/E ratio as well. A metric that will make TSLA a deep value play very soon.

Dan Ives is calling the bottom and calling for a FAANG led Nasdaq rally over the next couple weeks. Hope he’s right.

Not the rolls I wanted, and still quite annoyed that I didn't do these yesterday and get some meaningful strike improvements. Instead: Rolled 170x 1000/950 1/21 BPS to 130x 1100/1050 1/28 BPS for a credit; Rolled 36x 1170/1080 1/21 BPS to 36x 1110/970 1/28 BPS for a credit; Total credit of...

Not yet unfortunately... 939.50 is bottom of the gap. How much volume do you need to see? Qs are at +2x average and we still have a very high volume 40 minutes and closing cross to go.

I am kicking myself for not having stopped what I was doing today to take a roll. Seems like I had the chance to strike improve materially and widen for a decent credit. That will evaporate on open tomorrow if this AH is indicative of where we are heading. So lesson: roll early dumba**

Typically sold by an MM at those levels. In fact, the vast majority of options contracts are sold by MMs.

I think he’s buying not selling. Market makers would be on the other end of that one.

@sroh had a great response citing Brad Ferguson’s 500c Jan 2024 as looking attractive When I buy leaps I usually buy them near ATM and calculate how much leverage different strikes give me based on the amount of capital I want to deploy. Though many have (non)advised going DITM as a good...

He’ll update PT after Q4 earnings. That’s when his next year gets included in his DCF. I believe he only does 3 or 4 years out.

The 2nd went from a $90 spread to a $200 spread.

Risk tolerance is a muscle that needs developing. Working through the rolls and position management is part of that work out.

By widening the spread. This means you’re committing more cash or margin to backing the position though. Also this isn’t a position I would normally have opened but it was a roll back of a 1050 04/2022 BPS I had initiated as a flip roll of a deep ITM CC from when we blew through the 800s. My...

Game plan is to close them at a gain, but that may be fleeting. We’ll know tomorrow. One back up game plan would be flat roll for a credit, but reduce the number of contracts (still generate overall credit). Then use the freed up margin to widen and improve the 1170 for a credit as well...

That’s the power of earnings week IV. Haven’t done much yet other than clipped 34x 1380 cc’s at 90% yesterday. Still holding on to 1000/950 BPS and 1170/1080 BPS for this week. Current game plan is to close the 1000/950 then roll and widen the 1170 (hopefully to get it under 1100) to try to...

I have a 2021 MY November 2020 delivery in Quebec, Canada. No issues last winter, but did have to get heat pump and supermanifold replaced this year. Tech mentioned that it seems like the temp sensors are the root cause. Only reason I can think of that it’s happening this year and not last is...

UK data finally added. Tesla officially was the best selling brand in EU in Q3 2021. https://eu-evs.com/bestSellers/ALL/Brands/Quarter/2021/3 Likely the same in Q4 based on various sources of UK reporting. WITHOUT BERLIN. Things are about to get really interesting. 🚀

One of 2M? Willing to bet my experience is more the norm than his? And with that, we have a firmware update. Back to our normal programming now.

This is getting silly. I had a notification pop when it was -25 C before Christmas that my climate system needed service. This was just after one of our rides had no heat (but the next two did). Made a service appointment, which showed only available in the new year. Got a phone call within an...

His predictions are based on closing prices not intraday prices - as is most TA

Never wait until expiration day. Brokerages have the right to liquidate the position if there is any “perceived” risk of being ITM. My brokerage gives me until 2PM on expiration day, at which point they can decide to liquidate at their discretion.

Put spreads = bull if selling, bear if buying Call spreads = bear if selling, bull if buying

And THAT is a close right on the 50 EMA. Quite the ride today, though seems like key support levels actually held on the TSLA chart. Looking forward to seeing what tomorrow brings. Actions of the day: Clipped 170x 1050 1/14 BPS at 85% on the rally this morning; STO 170x 950/-1000 -1350/1400 IC...

Also a pretty meaningful long-term nickel purchase agreement was announced. 165M lbs of Nickel over 6 years with option to buy more. By my math that's about 1.6M vehicle battery packs worth of nickel.

I keep finding myself arguing with myself about the gravy as well... I always feel weird NOT having a BPS paired with a BCS. Another one of those muscles that need exercise.