Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

LFP is fantastic, I'm not dissing that at all. People just should not expect Tesla's 4680 production to be cranking out different kinds of chemistry cells.

I don't think Tesla will be making 3 TWh of "high nickel cells" annually,

That doesn't mean they are making LFP in 4680 format.

But I think it means they will be making some cells in an "entry level" chemistry,

 

[CHGolferJim]

Teslas are expensive to insure because the insurance companies now have claim history and the cars are very costly to repair. My Tesla premium is insane and almost doubled again last year while my other cars didn’t change much at all. Break i costs are high in some areas as we all know.

I’ve owned an S for 6 years and have had nothing like that happen with USAA insurance.

 

[snellenr]

Teslas are expensive to insure because the insurance companies now have claim history and the cars are very costly to repair. My Tesla premium is insane and almost doubled again last year while my other cars didn’t change much at all. Break i costs are high in some areas as we all know.

I’ve owned an S for 6 years and have had nothing like that happen with USAA insurance.

Same here - three 5-digit front-end "rearrangements" (Prius, light pole, deer) in eight years, all covered by their or my State Farm insurance, and no increase in premium resulting from the claims.

 

[bkp_duke]

I don't think Tesla will be making 3 TWh of "high nickel cells" annually,

That doesn't mean they are making LFP in 4680 format.

But I think it means they will be making some cells in an "entry level" chemistry,

Then you can have that discussion with Elon. His words, not mine.

High nickel are also to be used for Semi, CT, Roadster, S, X, LR/P 3 and Y. There is a large need for a LOT of cells.

For LFP, Elon openly stated best use for that is storage and lower-end cars (where price points are key). For storage, I believe he even stated that something like pouch or prismatic might be a better form factor than cylindrical.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So maybe I'm being over optomistic here, but could the DOJ investigation into potentially nefarious stock manipulation activites have been a result of the SEC suit vs Elon & Co which resulted in the trades/ positions of said potentially nefarious individuals being reported (for claims of "damages") and subsequently investigated? Possibly futher aided by the grand ledger reckoning which occured during the great stock split?
Would be hilarious if Elon is in on it (the investigation that is), but that's probably my hunger talking.

Thank you for connecting the dots! Even if this doesn't turn out to be the case, you have satisfied hunger in a large number of alternate universes.

Ceres!

 

[StealthP3D]

so your qualcomm share price didn’t drop by the relative value of leap wireless on the ex date of the spin-off?

generally speaking, corporate actions are fundamentally equity-neutral events. the market obviously decides the fair value of the two (in this case) either after the announcement, or after mkt open on ex-date.

but in your scenario if leap wireless didn’t start trading until after the spin-off, the expectation is that qualcomm shares drop by roughly the amount of the value of the leap shares. of course, like i said, once trading starts, the arbitrage is absorbed/unwound.
i’m not sure how long ago that was or if you remember…but i’d be interested to hear. your qualcomm stories have been a good lesson.

As I recall from a quarter century ago, Qualcomm was valued for the profitable side of its business (chips, network infrastructure, handsets and royalties) and essentially zero value was assigned to the fledging wireless carrier that was launched by QCOM to stimulate competition. Qualcomm never intended to be a wireless carrier, I think they launched Leap Wireless, much like Tesla is launching auto insurance, to help CDMA break into the market at a time that most wireless carriers had huge investments in a dead-end technology, TDMA, and the value of their capital investments was threatened by the spread-spectrum technology that is now the basis of digital standards in various flavors worldwide.

In 1998, the competitor FUD ran thick and heavy in the media and was also propagated by brokerages that had helped TDMA companies capitalize and, as a result, even today many people don't understand that wireless carriers worldwide use a spread spectrum technology that is the result of CDMA winning the wireless war. Because even as it was being re-branded (in a slightly changed form) as "GSM" or "Wideband GSM", and people were told this was not Qualcomm's technology even though it was CDMA technology at its heart. Qualcomm let them do this as long as they paid the going royalty rate and did not legally dispute that it was essentially Qualcomm's technology with different parameters to ensure it was not compatible.

Leap Wireless probably did cause the stock to drop about $1/share on the day of the spin-off. It was too long ago to remember the exact amount but it was no more than one quarter the value Leap started trading at and QCOM had probably run up a bit in anticipation of getting the Leap shares. Investors got one share of Leap for every four shares of QCOM they held. QCOM was my biggest holding at the time so I got a lot of Leap shares which I sold off after they ran up. Leap eventually ended up failing or being bought out for pennies due to huge barriers to entry and the difficulty of competing with much larger carriers in the wireless market. There is a thing called "network effect" which is that your customers are buying into coverage and they want it to work everywhere. A small carrier can only offer regional coverage without network sharing agreements, it costs billions to cover a continent. But Leap didn't go under until long after the new shares had their speculative run up, I don't recall exactly, three to six times the original valuation.

The principle at play here that is relevant to a possible Ford spin-off is that Farley is essentially saying that people are not valuing Ford highly enough because they are not including enough value for the potential of their EV business. What he doesn't seem to consider is the EV business is not in addition to their legacy business, it's instead of ICE sales. That's different than in a traditional spin-off where the spun-off business doesn't compete with the existing business as was the case with Leap Wireless. Leap Wireless became a customer of Qualcomm's infrastructure and chip businesses, not a competitor.

I also don't agree with the premise that Ford's EV business is not being valued enough, given the price F stock is trading at. I believe Ford stock is trading much higher, perhaps triple the price it would be trading at if they didn't have the potential to succeed in EV's. I suppose if one was of the belief that Ford EV's would so hugely successful that Ford EV's would even apply huge competitive pressure to Tesla sales, then that person could argue that the value of Ford's EV business is not being fully valued within F shares. But I don't think there are too many members of this forum that believe Ford will be able to compete on value with Tesla due to Tesla's superior corporate efficiency and continuing innovations in manufacturing that are already demonstrating a huge lead in manufacturing efficiency.

So, I think Farley is just trying to get people to value F stock even higher by dangling the carrot of a possible EV spin-off in front of investors noses so corporate insiders can divest themselves at more lucrative prices before Ford stock is in the gutter. It could also delay the amount of time Ford shares take to find the gutter with this potential carrot hanging there. So, don't expect this potential spin-off to be resolved shortly - I think it will be the perpetual "carrot" designed to support Ford share price until the time it is realized that Ford's EV business is even less profitable than their ICE business (due in part to competitive pressures in the EV market like TSLA's efficiency). If it was actually feasible to spin-off Ford's EV business, that would only hasten the transparency of the poor economics of Ford's EV business. Currently the economic details are hiding behind the opaque curtain of ICE profits.

Don't hold your breath waiting for the SEC to step-in to protect F shareholders by reminding Farley that a spin-off of their EV business is structurally very much more problematic than he is disclosing due to many factors including dealership franchise agreements, pension obligations and the fact that a spun-off EV business would be a direct competitor to Ford's ICE business.

 

[MC3OZ]

High nickel are also to be used for Semi, CT, Roadster, S, X, LR/P 3 and Y. There is a large need for a LOT of cells.

Battery day stated:-

• High Nickel - Semi and Cybertruck (also probably Roadster)
• Nickel / Manganese - S, X, 3, Y
• Iron - energy storage and entry level vehicles

For large scale energy storage, I can see Tesla mainly using external suppliers. for example. CATL.

The issues with making everything high nickel are:-

• Sourcing the required volumes of Nickel.
• The additional cost of using more Nickel

IMO most of the Battery Day cost savings they talk about where for the high nickel chemistry.

But if we take Battery Day literally, Model Ys produced at Austin will have Nickel/Manganese cells.

Clearly they didn't tell us everything at Battery Day, I don't think making Cathodes with different chemistries would change much on the 4680 production line...

All cells might be High Nickel if they can get enough nickel at the right price,

IMO if we are talking a "structural battery pack" that probably requires cylindrical cells to make a honeycomb structure, obviously for energy storage a structural pack isn't required. Again there could be stuff here we haven't been told,, so there could be multiple possible solutions..

 

[Artful Dodger]

Probably not. This more likely sprouted from the GME and reddit fiasco.

I don't think so. This DOJ investigation goes back to conduct which occurred as far back as 2017-18. The $AMC / Reddit short-squeeze peaked in late Jan 2021.

I think its much more likely that this investigation involves JPMorgan Chase, whom have admitted 5 separate criminal offenses since 2014, but have been repeated handed 'probation' and light fines: (still destroying messages, using 3rd-party systems)

JPMorgan’s Crime Wave Continues, Calling into Question the Justice Department’s Lax Settlement with the Bank Last Year

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: December 20, 2021 ~ JPMorgan Chase is the largest bank in the United States. It also has the scandalous distinction of

wallstreetonparade.com

Of course, Research firm's reports combined with spoofing are right up this alley too, as is Tesla's time-frame for related actions. I'm not saying the DOJ is going to bat for Tesla, I'm just saying its at least possible whereas $AMC+Gamestop are unlikely.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Here, my contribution for the good night sleep to everyone.

 

[thesmokingman]

I don't think so. This DOJ investigation goes back to conduct which occurred as far back as 2017-18. The $AMC / Reddit short-squeeze peaked in late Jan 2021.

I think its much more likely that this investigation involves JPMorgan Chase, whom have admitted 5 separate criminal offenses since 2014, but have been repeated handed 'probation' and light fines: (still destroying messages, using 3rd-party systems)

JPMorgan’s Crime Wave Continues, Calling into Question the Justice Department’s Lax Settlement with the Bank Last Year

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: December 20, 2021 ~ JPMorgan Chase is the largest bank in the United States. It also has the scandalous distinction of

wallstreetonparade.com

Of course, Research firm's reports combined with spoofing are right up this alley too, as is Tesla's time-frame for related actions. I'm not saying the DOJ is going to bat for Tesla, I'm just saying its at least possible whereas $AMC+Gamestop are unlikely.

Their scope is pretty wide. I read that Melvin and Left were raided so... could not have happened to a nicer bunch.

 

[st_lopes]

Here, my contribution to the good night sleep for everyone.View attachment 771883

Futures trading when markets are closed tomorrow. Interesting.

 

[Thekiwi]

Here, my contribution to the good night sleep for everyone.View attachment 771883

There is a good reason futures are spiking higher - but that reason was on the list of topics that moderators said will lead to a ban. Just go check out a news site I guess if you want to know what happened in the last half hour.

 

[Congo Line]

Teslas are expensive to insure because the insurance companies now have claim history and the cars are very costly to repair. My Tesla premium is insane and almost doubled again last year while my other cars didn’t change much at all. Break i costs are high in some areas as we all know.

Try changing insurance companies. Most companies routinely raise rates on existing customers because they know it involves time, hassle and work to switch to another company. They might even know your consumer history and have you profiled as someone who doesn't change vendors often, and you will pay for that. It's called price optimization (or profit maximization).

Being A Loyal Auto Insurance Customer Can Cost You

Businesses often reward their customers with discounts for sticking with them. But some auto insurance companies may raise your premiums if they think you're unlikely to shop for a better rate.

www.npr.org

 

[Stretch2727]

Ford is building a monster plant outside Memphis. Based on VW’s inability to get Tennessee workers to unionize when VW wanted it, I suspect the UAW will be out of luck. Makes sense for this plant to be part of the spinoff. It is supposed to be a ground up electric car plant.

My bet is this plant will be unionized. Ford has/had many plants in the south that were all unionized. Kentucky Assembly, Louisville KY and Atlanta GA (closed) come to mind. My guess there is a lot of leverage to establish a union and little resistance from Ford due the risk with the plants in the north. Ultimately I understand it is up to the workers. On top of this, we have the whole Biden initiative to create "good" union jobs with EV's.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Try changing insurance companies. Most companies routinely raise rates on existing customers because they know it involves time, hassle and work to switch to another company. They might even know your consumer history and have you profiled as someone who doesn't change vendors often, and you will pay for that. It's called price optimization (or profit maximization).

Being A Loyal Auto Insurance Customer Can Cost You

Businesses often reward their customers with discounts for sticking with them. But some auto insurance companies may raise your premiums if they think you're unlikely to shop for a better rate.

www.npr.org

My issue will be de-bundling from home and windstorm insurance. Tesla would save me around 20%, but with the bundling, it may be a wash.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Futures trading when markets are closed tomorrow. Interesting.

Futures contracts trade through Cboe Global Markets, formerly known as the "Chicago Board Options Exchange" (CBOE). They have separate trading hours vs the major stock exchanges in New York City (NYSE, NASDAQ)

Hours & Holidays - Cboe Global Markets › about › hours › us-futures​

Extended Trading Hours: Feb 21, 2022 (all times Central)

5:00 p.m. (Sun) to 10:30 a.m. (Mon) and 5:00 p.m.(Mon) to 8:30 a.m. (Tue)

Cheers!

 

[geometro]

Do Putin and NATO observe President’s Day? Asking for a friend…

 

[keydiver]

A ~20% increase in 2 years would be impressive. This would make LFP 4680 pack get near 300 miles which would allow Tesla to utterly dominate the market just in Model 3/Y.

I thought it was quite interesting last Tuesday when I helped my friends pick up their Model 3 SR. The website still says 267 mile range, but their screen indicates 274 mile range. They charged the other night, and it was 273 in the morning, so their LFP pack is better than promised. That would be fantastic if they can keep improving LFP like that. It now has more range than my 2018 Model 3 Mid-Range.

 

[lafrisbee]

Car Insurance IS NOT about the cost of a car. PERIOD. (OK get stupid and go way over $150k and it will have an impact).
BUT... here's the rundown. (All the below numbers are just for the sake of clarity)
Car goes bang...$5k to fix car....doesn't matter, piece of pooh from 2002 or your precious tesla either is gonna be $5k- $10k.
2 cars go crunch $40k to fix both cars. Then again both totalled in the next example...
Car goes BOOM $100k for each person in the cars (low balled). Car value not important.
Car Insurance is not about how expensive a car is to repair. PERIOD.

Car Insurance is about how well the car protects the person. And even ants know Tesla vehicles protect their human drivers.
When I went from a $12k Nissan pick up to a $40k Dodge Ram I actually confronted the Agent. He had to explain it to me because my insurance premium went DOWN by $40/six months. His explanation. If I had gotten in an accident in the Nissan by hitting the Dodge I would be dead or seriously injured, and would not be driving a car for a good while. All that adds up to real money. Not $5k bs. start adding zeros. not one zero.
If I got in an accident in the Ram by hitting the Nissan I need a chiropractor and a new truck. No problem, $60k max.
Teslas will possibly have lower rates due to the protection of a passenger during an accident. (nd yes, also because the Software will save people before an accident.)

 

[Discoducky]

Haven't seen this posted yet, but looks like Tesla Insurance in Germany is one step closer to reality...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1495583996268351489