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I am taking a more optimistic spin. I say late 2023 at worst. If we see model Y's getting delivered with 4680's that's a really good sign. Furthermore, if we see a test car running around in the fall, that is yet another good sign.
The key technological pieces are there now (motors, batteries, etc.) that they want. The concept has been evolving since 2017. The Plaid powertrain is proof this this car is now really close.