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June FOMC meeting minutes are being released at 2pm ET today, so could get a bit more volatile before/afterwards.

Interesting -

For context.. last 3 days after FOMC - Jan 26 - S&P500 rallied +250pts in next few sessions.. March 16 - S&P 500 rallied +200 points in next few weeks.. May 4 - S&P 500 rallied +150 points in 2 days and then crashed.

Take it for what it's worth, Spotgamma thinks that the upside area for S&P is 4300 (about another 3% from current levels) going into June options expiration. June 15th (VIX exp.) & June 17th (options exp. OPEX) are supposedly key turning point due to very large expirations and the FOMC (6/15)...

I think fed minutes will be released next week.

Curious, what's your strategy with index options? selling both puts/calls if IV is 30%+? SPX/SPY/QQQ?

I had a 875p that I didn’t bother closing. Fully expected to be assigned shares and was just going to wheel it. Pleasantly surprised that they expired instead. Notice SP bump up to 878 in AH. Still thought it was close enough that I would get assigned (since close was around 871). Definitely a...

Looks like Google and Msft down from earnings... QQQ following in AH.

For what it's worth, Spotgamma noted that yesterdays market rally was the result of short covering. He thinks a sustained rally is unlikely to stick until after 5/4 FOMC & Russian default.

It's true, but it was also neutral/slightly green the last few days during the market tanking. That felt unusual too. That said, I opened a CSP way too early today (when it dropped 6%) 😅

Spotgamma's take on TSLA action today -

Do we have any indication whether Elon will be on the earnings call for Q1? I think he skipped Q3 2021, but came back for year end. I thought the idea was he be handing off these corporate activities?

For what it’s worth, in the short term, spotgamma views SPX < 4500 as having negative gamma (higher volatility). He views it as slightly favorable that it’s bounced off 4450 in the last two days.

There could also be short term weakness in Tesla due to the ongoing shutdown in Shanghai. Haven't come across any indication that they're reopening just yet.

I'm still having flashbacks from Q4 P+D, where we saw a 13% rise, only to give it all back that same week. I decided to take a look at how TSLA the stock reacted after P+D numbers from the last two years -

Brett at SpotGamma has been pretty spot on with his market predictions based on reviewing option flow. I read his daily write up and it's geared towards S&P, and his daily support/resistance levels that he provides have held up. His writeups since OPEX expiration has had a tone of cautiousness...

always unpredictable with TSLA :). S&P up 6% and QQQ up 9% for the week too.

I'm still on the fence whether we're out of the woods yet for the market in general. This week is triple witching with large amounts of options expiring, with a lot of put protection that was geared towards the FOMC meeting. According to spotgamma, the market will be in a more unhedged position...

Keeping plenty of margin seems to be key. Those days when it was in the 700's don't feel great if overleveraged.

Not advice - I'd wait since there's a large 900 call wall. Still time left for theta to burn off.

Found this article explaining todays intraday reversal interesting. TLDR - You may note that the put flow was nearly 6x larger than the call flow. Its most likely that traders entered the day LONG these put options, and so they likely are selling puts to close. Accordingly, its likely...

I think what's missing is you're looking at 3/4 - c750 CC $63 premium while current SP is $800. If you did take 1000 shares on Saturday, it would be because SP dropped to at least 750. When you open up CC on Monday, and assuming SP is still roughly in the $750 range, then your CC premium...

If you're forced to buy @ 750, the STO on 3/18 -c900 will likely not be $10 credit. Maybe a good proxy is looking at 3/4 -c900 (since current SP is at 750), which is going for roughly $2.30.

Thanks for posting this. I was pondering this exact question for myself. Not sure if margin is a factor for you, but I'm almost thinking a split between 1/2. #1 is straightforward, defer this madness to a much later point in time, collect credit and wait on a recovery (but tying up capital). #2...

I don't remember exact time value because I don't remember tracking it closely yesterday before it got executed, but it was definitely <0.50. Thanks for the not advice, I think I will apply those principles, esp for DITM.

Curious on your assumptions of SP reaching bottom - are you considering a few indicators or more gut feeling?

Same, just had a 2/25 1075p early assigned in ibkr. I also have the same put in E-Trade but that didn't get early assigned, so just seems to be the luck of the draw.

I never fully understood "filling the gap". Can someone explain it in layman terms?

Doesn't seem like early assignment always happens. Just my personal experience but I've been holding 1055 and 1075's for last 2-3 weeks (sometimes past Wednesday/Thursday for a Friday expiration) and haven't had an early assignment yet.

In a similar position. Going forward, I plan to take out a sufficient amount for taxes, esp by YE. Thought I would keep the gains in to compound faster, but we know how that turned out. Another @Yoona reminder to be less greedy.

I think he's talking 2:30pm ET?

All I can say is I'm in awe of your approach @Yoona . Your risk management style is where I hope to end up. Can I sign up to be the intern to the newbie trader? 🤣

Hoping with the crazy amount of option expiration this week, we'll see a surge M - W going into earnings. I might roll my higher naked puts and take advantage of the high IV pre earnings, before it comes crashing down. I think we're all bullish going into Q4 earnings, but macros are really...

Yes, this is naked. Lucked out on timing and caught it at today's high. Looking at maxpain during this week and saw large call walls at 1000, 1050, 1100, and 1200, so didn't feel confident we would get close to 1100 by end of tomorrow.

I use to have the same thoughts so I started to roll my most at risk earlier instead of waiting. Rolled a 1,110 expiry tomorrow to 1,085 expiry 1/28 and got $200 credit. Seeing AH action, seems unlikely I would've been able to do the same trade tomorrow.

Thank you for your sacrifice! I share those same thoughts though since there's a decent call wall at 1050 so it does look like they want to keep it within the 1000 - 1050 range.

@wooter, market is closed on Monday in observation of Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Short trading week.

Thanks for your wisdom @Yoona. I think you just laid out perfectly what I do wrong half the time - trying to hit a certain number, wanting to "do something", and milking a position to death. There's really so much wisdom in these options thread and I'm just happy I can pick smarter peoples...

Anyone figure out how to do this in IB? I know you can do it in the IB workstation but the bulk of my trades are through the IB app and I don't see a way to roll a spread that way.

I've always done limit. If i'm aiming for it to execute pretty quickly, i'll put a limit between the bid/ask.

Looks like the AH market is liking the certainty of the news

🤷‍♂️

Adding on to this, for those with full time jobs, I'm curious how people structure their days (or even week) to incorporate/optimize their trading. I work a corporate job and I'm on the computer all day, so it's very easy for me to check, but I find myself greatly distracted and maybe spend too...

This was the same guest that was interviewed by Dave Lee re: the gamma squeeze. TLDR - he thinks it'll consolidate to around 1,100 by Friday. Last Monday had the Hertz purchase order news, which was a clear catalyst (and probably drove institutions to pull the trigger more based on fundamentals)...

There's the small possibility, but unlikely since it's 2+ yrs out.

Are you mostly doing BPS while maintaining that 60-65%? That seems very sufficient, but I imagine with a rapid down move, it'll get eaten very quickly. BCS does seem to be the missing piece in my toolbox. Being a bull, just feels harder to pull the trigger on BCS. I wouldn't want to go close...

Thanks, this is helpful. My comfort level probably aligns best with wide spreads. I remember some sleepless nights during the Feb/Mar tankathon. It all worked out in the end but that definitely put me on edge. Did you have to get anything enabled/approved to be able to do it in an IRA? I'll...

Thanks for the example. In the past, I've just been selling naked puts and like most here, have started incorporating BPS (using a 100 wide spread) and getting comfortable with the mechanics. Just curious how everyone positions their accounts with BPS in a portfolio margin account? The natural...

Another option if you wanted to keep the rental (and not have a taxable gain?) is to consider a HELOC on it?