Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[ReddyLeaf]

Classic MaxPain trading today. I just checked the open interest (7am update): p910s and p920s bumped up just a bit over the number of calls, so now the target is $930. Voila, trading this AM to scare/tempt the c950s, then back down to $930+/-. I expect a similar push down to ~$905 in an attempt to scare/tempt the p900s, probably Thursday. I think @adiggs called that “touch” in some of the earliest posts.

Unfortunately, I can’t seem to get moving fast enough in the 6:30-7:00AM PST zone to trade this. I tried to buyback my -p900s early and then sell p910s at the MMD, but my foggy mind couldn’t quite get moving. Decided that my current position is better than making a trading mistake. Rolling the -p900s to 920 could clear another $5, maybe $10 if properly timed. Maybe tomorrow.

 

[bkp_duke]

With the rise in the past hour I was finally able to roll some BPS's in a family account that I've been managing. Main goal for this was to preserve the capital and not let the position expire at max loss, which would have been devistating.

55 x BPS 940/1000 Exp 2/11 rolled to BPS 975/1050 Exp Jan 2023 for small credit.

If we don't get above 1050 between now and Jan 2023 where I can close this position out at profit or roll it to something else profitable . . . well, that would suck.

 

[adiggs]

Classic MaxPain trading today. I just checked the open interest (7am update): p910s and p920s bumped up just a bit over the number of calls, so now the target is $930. Voila, trading this AM to scare/tempt the c950s, then back down to $930+/-. I expect a similar push down to ~$905 in an attempt to scare/tempt the p900s, probably Thursday. I think @adiggs called that “touch” in some of the earliest posts.

Unfortunately, I can’t seem to get moving fast enough in the 6:30-7:00AM PST zone to trade this. I tried to buyback my -p900s early and then sell p910s at the MMD, but my foggy mind couldn’t quite get moving. Decided that my current position is better than making a trading mistake. Rolling the -p900s to 920 could clear another $5, maybe $10 if properly timed. Maybe tomorrow.

"Touch" is the idea / likelihood that the share price will touch the option strike at some point before expiration. When I ran into it, touch was 2x the likelihood of finishing ITM. So a 3% ProbITM would have a ProbTouch of 6% - that's the idea. I have no idea how true that ratio is

 

[adiggs]

With the modest move up this morning when I acted (earlier in the day at 950 would have been better) I've opened 950 and 970 strike calls for next week expiration. The 950s are for shares I plan/need to sell anyway and pulled in $24 credits.

The 970s are intended to be aggressive cc, but the underlying purchased calls are out in June, so several months for these to resolve. Good for $17 credits.


Holding on opening new naked puts, looking for a move down.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

How early is early when it comes to deep ITM puts getting assigned? I have some for the Friday that I want to roll, but I'd like to see $950(or at least 942 again) before I do it.

Does early assignment almost always happen after the close on a Thursday? That seems to be the stories I hear.

Obviously not looking for advice, would just love to know how much I'm gambling holding onto $1050p thru maybe 10am Thursday.

 

[stealthyc]

How early is early when it comes to deep ITM puts getting assigned? I have some for the Friday that I want to roll, but I'd like to see $950(or at least 942 again) before I do it.

Does early assignment almost always happen after the close on a Thursday? That seems to be the stories I hear.

Obviously not looking for advice, would just love to know how much I'm gambling holding onto $1050p thru maybe 10am Thursday.

I have heard of Wed or Thursday. I have personally experienced Thursday. Also, only overnight matters. Options clearing is after hours, you can hold as long as you want during the day, or at least that is how I understand it to be.

 

[mrmtb]

How early is early when it comes to deep ITM puts getting assigned? I have some for the Friday that I want to roll, but I'd like to see $950(or at least 942 again) before I do it.

Does early assignment almost always happen after the close on a Thursday? That seems to be the stories I hear.

Obviously not looking for advice, would just love to know how much I'm gambling holding onto $1050p thru maybe 10am Thursday.

Pretty good chance of getting assigned because there's barely any/no extrinsic value left

 

[UltradoomY]

How early is early when it comes to deep ITM puts getting assigned? I have some for the Friday that I want to roll, but I'd like to see $950(or at least 942 again) before I do it.

Does early assignment almost always happen after the close on a Thursday? That seems to be the stories I hear.

Obviously not looking for advice, would just love to know how much I'm gambling holding onto $1050p thru maybe 10am Thursday.

Doesn't matter the day - reality is that when there is zero time value left and it is DITM (more than $50) they can get assigned anytime.
I incorrectly guessed that my $1120 -P's that had 2 weeks left had $5 of time value left and was looking for a good time to roll and they were assigned on a Wednesday after hours.
So make sure you have time value in your positions no matter what - the $1050's you are talking about have almost $0 left and are in danger, just depends if they get pulled out of the pile or not.

 

[jaspa]

How early is early when it comes to deep ITM puts getting assigned? I have some for the Friday that I want to roll, but I'd like to see $950(or at least 942 again) before I do it.

Does early assignment almost always happen after the close on a Thursday? That seems to be the stories I hear.

Obviously not looking for advice, would just love to know how much I'm gambling holding onto $1050p thru maybe 10am Thursday.

Doesn't seem like early assignment always happens. Just my personal experience but I've been holding 1055 and 1075's for last 2-3 weeks (sometimes past Wednesday/Thursday for a Friday expiration) and haven't had an early assignment yet.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Doesn't seem like early assignment always happens. Just my personal experience but I've been holding 1055 and 1075's for last 2-3 weeks (sometimes past Wednesday/Thursday for a Friday expiration) and haven't had an early assignment yet.

It's my understanding the vast majority won't, but a certain number definitely will and it's just dumb luck if you get assigned.

Great info, thanks to all! Especially interesting this idea of off hours assignment. Gonna do some googling to confirm and will report back. Makes a huge difference if I hold thru til tomorrow. I'd have all day to pick a spot

I think I'll just roll today most likely. Who needs the stress.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Doesn't matter the day - reality is that when there is zero time value left and it is DITM (more than $50) they can get assigned anytime.
I incorrectly guessed that my $1120 -P's that had 2 weeks left had $5 of time value left and was looking for a good time to roll and they were assigned on a Wednesday after hours.
So make sure you have time value in your positions no matter what - the $1050's you are talking about have almost $0 left and are in danger, just depends if they get pulled out of the pile or not.

Seems like they have 0.18 of time value left on optionprofitscalculator.

It would be interesting if we add on a google excel sheet all the options that have been assigned over time so we could have an average of how much time value they had left and the number of DTE. At least we could have a probability number of risk of assignment and see if it is linear correlation arriving to the last day. I have not found that info online.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Everything BPS is now rolled to May 20th expiration. Think of me fondly when we close at $999 Friday. You're welcome.

 

[JustMe]

Well I kicked the can down the road

2/18 1000/800 -> 2/25 995/795 for $1.6 credit

I didn’t want to count on a run to save this, so I took advantage of the rise this morning to roll for a modest credit and tiny strike improvement.

Baby steps!

 

[Yoona]

well, well, well

SP is exactly at max pain

 

[bkp_duke]

well, well, well

SP is exactly at max pain

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Nothing would make me happier for the CPI to come in WAY under expectations tomorrow, and the hedgies get steamrolled by a TSLA bull run.

Yes, I have dreams of this. They are wonderful and soothing.

 

[ninpb]

I made some moves yesterday and today, thankfully making good money but it was shocking to me how right after clicking the button, a simpler option I didn't even think about popped in my head and was clearly the smarter, safer move. Being in the moment(greed) and/or being a noob I guess.

 

[JustMe]

I made some moves yesterday and today, thankfully making good money but it was shocking to me how right after clicking the button, a simpler option I didn't even think about popped in my head and was clearly the smarter, safer move. Being in the moment(greed) and/or being a noob I guess.

We are all learning every day, I reckon.

I like seeing others trades, for this reason. so feel free to post your winners and losers

Anyway- Green is green!

 

[wooter]

Nothing would make me happier for the CPI to come in WAY under expectations tomorrow, and the hedgies get steamrolled by a TSLA bull run.

Yes, I have dreams of this. They are wonderful and soothing.

I can tell you have ITM BPS.

OTM BCS owners don't share your feelings

 

[Runarbt]

I have decided to continue with my bps -850/750 for the indefinite future.
I considered to move one step down, to -750/650 - but greed made me decide to stick with -850, as it pays substantially better.

My conclusion is that since we only visited below 850 two days during max macro pain two weeks ago - this should be comfortable.. and if we do visit these lows again, rolling a week or two is not the end of the world.

Doing 15x contracts and tie up about 15% of my available margin.

I have some margin debt I need to close out. Should be back to zero in a month or two

I also have a bps 1100/1000 at max loss which I "parked" 6months out.. havent decided if I should just wait this one out, or move it closer/lower and increase contracts.

 

[CHGolferJim]

Closed all 2/11 $1075 CC yesterday for $0.20 (91%) to enable more selling on possible post-CPI pop, but kept the $975s which remain above $3. Pre-inflation report, the net credit for a roll to 2/18 has held quite steady for the past few trading sessions despite the SP swings, so hope that holds for either post-report scenario: a) SP pops on a below expectations figure, or b) slides with macros if figure is on or above 7% expectations. From reports here, European inflation reports seem lower than expected. Holding the $975 until expiration (saving the BTC cost) would pay for the next golf trip to FL.