Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Stretch2727]

Next up: converting to the metric system (maybe Tesla's tooling and suppliers are already that way
internally?)

The auto industry (even the US industry) is fully metric across the board at least from a design and supply perspective.

Funny story though. When I worked for Ford there were some old school machinists that would not accept a drawing in metric. Most plants even if they outsource most machines and equipment have a machine shop for simple tools and modifications. The first time I designed a tool I did it in metric as the part it would hold was designed all in metric. The machinist threw the drawing back in my face and told me to covert it to inches. All the machine shop tools (mills, lathes, etc) were ancient and set up in inches. This was about 20 years ago....

 

[Speedr117]

The site is paywalled for me (despite attempting private mode), so I can't see if the article provided any reasonable explanation for what seems like a dumb thing to say that doesn't read as technically sound....

I launch in private mode, and then quickly hit F9 to go into "Reader" mode to read it.

I posted this since I hadn't heard from Ford or GM if they were REPLACING or AUGMENTING CCS with NACS.

 

[Robertj]

RHD represents X percent of sales and adds 3X costs.
No-brainer ...

They RHD may cost more but Tesla has been dropping prices of S/X in US and China

How about thinking about the other third of the world , disclose NZ is RHD

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Nice day today...in case y'all did not notice:

 

[SOULPEDL]

The auto industry (even the US industry) is fully metric across the board at least from a design and supply perspective.

Funny story though. When I worked for Ford there were some old school machinists that would not accept a drawing in metric. Most plants even if they outsource most machines and equipment have a machine shop for simple tools and modifications. The first time I designed a tool I did it in metric as the part it would hold was designed all in metric. The machinist threw the drawing back in my face and told me to covert it to inches. All the machine shop tools (mills, lathes, etc) were ancient and set up in inches. This was about 20 years ago....

Still that way. Quality Metric milling bits are special order in some cases. They also still have fax machines… much better selections in Standard. Sucks designing outside metric.

 

[cliff harris]

I agree that one rationale for the RHD abandonment would be that a new S/X is coming... but then we come back to Teslas really bad management in terms of signalling this.
A simple "Sadly we are not currently able to offer the S/X in RHD markets, but trust that we have no intention of abandoning those markets, and they remain important customers".
Easy to do.
But what do we get? "No more RHD S/X, and if you don't like it, here is a funny little grabby arm on a stick". Go read the UK forum, or any other UK site with Tesla owners. People here do not think this is 4D chess by Elon. There are a lot of prior and current S/X owners who have no intention of buying any more Teslas. The free grabby stick is being perceived as kicking sand in the face of long-time UK Tesla owners who helped Tesla get where it is.

It does no service at all to INVESTORS to just try and pretend this was handled well. It was handled very, very badly.

 

[Robertj]

My $0.02 on the RHD S+X... kinda sharing NicoV's opinion that they will restart availability once tooling changes for a new version (which may not be that significantly newer... just different tooling). Also, Tesla has that super-transparent visibility into demand and orders for S+X that none of us have - and maybe there just weren't that many orders for S+X in LHD markets. Teslas are expensive in Australia, and in the UK there are a lot of other brands competing for the wallets of the status-obsessed rich - the UK being the spiritual home to Jaguar, Range Rover, Bentley and Rolls etc. - even if they don't have compelling BEVs they might lower demand for other statements of wealth. Tesla must surely have seen the orders coming in and concluded that it isn't worth it - for this round. I believe they will re-introduce S+X at some point, maybe even as soon as the end of the year. OK maybe that was more than $0.02

The problem with this approach , is that when your order is 18 months old , I lost interest , cancelled the order and bought something else , more Tesla shares !

 

[jeewee3000]

It does no service at all to INVESTORS to just try and pretend this was handled well. It was handled very, very badly.

Indeed. However bullish I may be with regard to Tesla long term, one cannot fail to notice when Tesla drops the ball. *cough*ultrasonicsensorremoval*cough*

 

[EQC_]

Do you know that? RHD has largish markets:

Right-Hand-Drive Electric Vehicle Markets — Projections - CleanTechnica

Right Hand Drive EV Markets - Projections for the take up of EVs - Australia, UK, Japan, India, South Africa, Indonesia and New Zealand.

cleantechnica.com

Once upon a time I saw cost accounting for RHD v LHD for a large OEM. There was very small incremental cost then fro RHD v LHD

Some thoughts:

• Tesla puts high value on reducing options and manufacturing complexity, especially compared to other auto manufacturers.
  • We know Tesla's approach to engineering and manufacturing is different than the other OEM's, so their cost structure is also likely different. Something that sticks out to me, is that (IIRC) Toyota at some point declared they would produce 30 EV models, totaling 3 million vehicles a year, by some target date. Under this goal, Toyota's average model would only be at 100k vehicles per year. With 30 models, all with their own options and variations, the complexity is mind boggling compared to Tesla currently producing nearly 2 million vehicles per year with only 4 models...and actually, most of that 2 million is split among just the 3 and Y, which share many common parts. Tesla clearly operates and makes decisions in a way that prioritizes fewer models and manufacturing variations compared to other manufacturers.
• If Tesla's manufacturing is very efficient, then "small" added costs can become a higher percentage of the total.
  • A seemingly small cost in an inefficient system becomes a bigger percentage as everything else becomes more efficient. For example, having a long radio antenna on a pick-up truck does not create a noticeable change in the MPG. Just about every pickup still has oan antenna, and it doesn't matter -- the truck is still going to get around 18 MPG with or without the antenna. But, I'd be willing to bet that adding a 3-foot wire on top of a very efficient Model 3 would actually make a user-noticeable difference in the highway efficiency and range. Simiilarly, perhaps Tesla's efficient manufacturing of the X and S would take a more noticiable hit for adding RHD than other manufacturers see.
• MAYBE Tesla is going to update something else soon, which will make it simpler to manufacture RHD versions in the near future?
  • This is pure speculation on my part...based on my own thoughts combined with some other speculation I've seen.
  • In addition to the "immediate" cost/benefit analysis, there might also be a time limit on the "benefit" side of designing/building RHD versions at this time on this version of the S/X.
    • We know Tesla took longer than they expected to bring the refreshed S and X production back online. What if part of that related to a delay in some feature, and needing to re-design and fall back to an older system? What if...what if that delay related to steer-by-wire for the yoke? [[Again, 100% speculation...I have no real info here]]]
    • The current mechanical steering makes the swap to right-hand-drive more complicated for engineering/manufacturing.
    • What if Tesla now thinks steer-by-wire can be brought in with a new mild refresh in a few months or a year? Engineering and adding RHD to the current production line would have limited use for only a short time....to provide a feature that they can implement much more simply in this hypothetical near future.

*Edited to note that ArtfulDodger, NicoV, Martin, and others here have also recently noted the possibility of a steer-by-wire refresh coming soon. These smart members are probably where I got my original thoughts on this speculation...but I typed my response before I got to the last couple pages in this thread, where they have made these points (again?) .

**Also edited to note, as others have stated...whether or not this is the case, Tesla could have done a better job communicating with and preserving goodwill from existing RHD reservation holders.

 

[wipster]

Boy are the But, but, buts coming out today... BYD outsold Tesla in China (if you count hybrids that is), Tesla needs more models to increase demand (while ignoring CyberTruck, Project Highland, and Gen 3 and whatever gems they have that haven't even been announced yet), and I haven't even mentioned the M word (but rest assured we'll be be hearing it for the next 2 weeks)

Things change, but analcists stupidity doesn't.

 

[unk45]

Most (not US based) will definitely be metric.

Try ALL

 

[Stone_Watcher]

Tesla has opened at least 10 new supercharging locations today across the United States. I’ve noticed the rollout is ramping dramatically. Everyday it seems that another 4-6 locations are opening. All info is sourced from Tesla Charging (Teslas official charging account) on twitter.

8 to 12 stalls per location.

Champaign, IL
Boulder, Co
Mr. Vernon, IL
Marshal, MN
Saint Louis, MO
Battle Creek, MI
Las Vegas, NV
Georgetown, DE
Framingham, MA
Brandywine, MD

Taking my dad to test drive his first Tesla later today, an hour in a Model S. I heard butts in seats sells cars

 

[CorneliusXX]

Kentucky mandates Tesla's charging plug for state-backed charging stations

Kentucky is requiring that electric vehicle charging companies include Tesla's plug if they want to be part of a state program to electrify highways using federal dollars, according to documents reviewed by Reuters.

www.reuters.com

"Kentucky is requiring that electric vehicle charging companies include Tesla's plug if they want to be part of a state program to electrify highways using federal dollars, according to documents reviewed by Reuters.
Kentucky's plan went into effect on Friday, making it the first state to mandate Tesla's charging technology, although Texas and Washington states previously shared such plans with Reuters."

Interesting that so many red states that don't buy EVs suddenly want NACS superchargers. Are there a lot of roombas down that way?

 

[Singuy]

I agree that one rationale for the RHD abandonment would be that a new S/X is coming... but then we come back to Teslas really bad management in terms of signalling this.
A simple "Sadly we are not currently able to offer the S/X in RHD markets, but trust that we have no intention of abandoning those markets, and they remain important customers".
Easy to do.
But what do we get? "No more RHD S/X, and if you don't like it, here is a funny little grabby arm on a stick". Go read the UK forum, or any other UK site with Tesla owners. People here do not think this is 4D chess by Elon. There are a lot of prior and current S/X owners who have no intention of buying any more Teslas. The free grabby stick is being perceived as kicking sand in the face of long-time UK Tesla owners who helped Tesla get where it is.

It does no service at all to INVESTORS to just try and pretend this was handled well. It was handled very, very badly.

I thought they were offered a discount on RHD model 3s/Ys?

Also I think the change is margin scraping as all eyes are on it. If they can sell S/X everywhere else without retooling for RHD then why bother. They have yet to do RHD for refreshed S/X and may not have many lines. Last thing investors want is a halt to production for longer than expected just to sell maybe a few hundred cars as these are all over 6 figs so that market is small.

 

[AndrewZ]

Was this type of thing possibly the driver behind the massive Q2 beat here?

Tesla May See Explosion Of End-Of-Quarter Deliveries From Fleet Sales

Tesla has fleet orders from Hertz, Autonomy, and others to fill. According to inside sources, the automaker plans to fill some of those orders at the end of Q3.

insideevs.com

This would also help explain the crazy draining of vehicles from the inventory trackers in the last couple days of June

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Was this type of thing possibly the driver behind the massive Q2 beat here?

Tesla May See Explosion Of End-Of-Quarter Deliveries From Fleet Sales

Tesla has fleet orders from Hertz, Autonomy, and others to fill. According to inside sources, the automaker plans to fill some of those orders at the end of Q3.

insideevs.com

This would also help explain the crazy draining of vehicles from the inventory trackers in the last couple days of June

Why are you linking to an article from 10 months ago?

Trying to say that the only reason Tesla beat is because of fleet sales is pretty dubious

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Why are you linking to an article from 10 months ago?

Trying to say that the only reason Tesla beat is because of fleet sales is pretty dubious

in disguise

 

[wipster]

Try ALL

Ha! My first real motorcycle was an S90 Honda when I was 12, so I learned the metric system before the imperial. I was kinda dismayed when I had to learn the fractions or an inch measurement when I moved into cars because the metric system just makes sense, in all perspectives. To this day I would not be surprised if imperial tools are used on metric nuts and bolts most of the time by my Dad's generation, whereas I use metric tools on imperial a lot of the time.

I hope the generations coming into the workforce force the issue as we're seriously at a disadvantage in the US. We even use both systems at the same time! Ordered tires lately? Remember the old alphabetic listings for tire width? The current method is far more accurate and easier to understand (even if wheel sizes are in inches)

 

[generalenthu]

VW cutting BEV production because, reasons..

MSN

www.msn.com

 

[AndrewZ]

Why are you linking to an article from 10 months ago?

Trying to say that the only reason Tesla beat is because of fleet sales is pretty dubious

I saw some musings about such patterns on Twitter and went to the Google machine to see if there was precedence for it, then can correlate with the inventory trackers

I don't get the negative connotation though, there was a whack of inventory that disappeared and delivery numbers that seemingly nobody had anticipated so it feels like it all makes sense

in disguise

Uh almost my entire post history in this thread is posting pessimistic stuff, that's my purpose here.

But you don't want to understand where these numbers came from?