Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[unk45]

@unk45 I have a question for you if you think you might have any insight on it

How do you view Tesla getting a foothold in Brazil and South America if the Mexico vehicle is indeed destined to here? I mean, I'm sure they could sell everything they make, but what I have a bit of doubt is if they start cranking them out fast, will the initial demand be there to absorb it? It's a whole new place that for 99% might have no clue in EVs and big skepticism and have to be converted to it

If it was a lower production vehicle, I'm sure everything would be sold and there would be month long wait, but I'm not totally sure when doing 1M+ a year

As time go by sure, there will be wait lines

I think it would compete with Corolla here for the price we expect, and even that sold less than 50k units in 2021

This is a topic I've been thinking about for some time. Considering that Hyundai sold 184,000 last year in Brazil, of course nearly all manufactured in Brazil by CAOA, as is Chery, growing very quickly too. Tesla may do well due to the Brazil/Mexico trade agreement. However, unless Tesla begins some major Brazil manufacturing I cannot see them gaining much advantage other than the reduced IPVA (annual road tax, done at State level) of some states. That is a big factor to those who are knowledgable (my brother-in-law pays 10 times as much for his 12 year old BMW X1 as I do for my 2022 Volvo XC40 Recharge) but invisible compared to purchase price.

Then Supercharging infrastructure will be a giant cost (Brazil's the size of the US 48 States) and very large scale is the only option. Not only that the current Federal Government leader is the same one who brought alcohol many years ago, so he's not very receptive anyway, much less to some US company led by a zillionaire.

I want it to happen, and even more because I still have my Model 3 reservation from seven years ago when Tesla briefly opened Brazil to Model 3 reservations. Realistically there seems to be no short term solution. A deal with CAOA or someone else might do it, but that would hardly be wise for Tesla anytime soon.

Realistically I think the demand would not be a problem, but the politics are prohibitive now.
Were that there were a better chance. OTOH, my spouse and family do like the Volvo.

 

[Krugerrand]

I had a similar experience last week when I was offered a Model X test drive while I waited for service when my MY needed front end suspension work at the North Shore Peabody, Mass service center. Service staff were excellent.

Even with 3 service centers in eastern Mass they still had 46 appointments scheduled for the next day. That has to be difficult to sustain. Several owners had driven several hours down from NH and Maine for service and mentioned how much Tesla needed to set up service centers in their states. Hopefully just a matter of time.

Are either of those states Tesla friendly? I don’t recall which states are still holdouts due to dealership laws. That could be why service centers are lacking.

 

[GhostSkater]

This is a topic I've been thinking about for some time. Considering that Hyundai sold 184,000 last year in Brazil, of course nearly all manufactured in Brazil by CAOA, as is Chery, growing very quickly too. Tesla may do well due to the Brazil/Mexico trade agreement. However, unless Tesla begins some major Brazil manufacturing I cannot see them gaining much advantage other than the reduced IPVA (annual road tax, done at State level) of some states. That is a big factor to those who are knowledgable (my brother-in-law pays 10 times as much for his 12 year old BMW X1 as I do for my 2022 Volvo XC40 Recharge) but invisible compared to purchase price.

Then Supercharging infrastructure will be a giant cost (Brazil's the size of the US 48 States) and very large scale is the only option. Not only that the current Federal Government leader is the same one who brought alcohol many years ago, so he's not very receptive anyway, much less to some US company led by a zillionaire.

I want it to happen, and even more because I still have my Model 3 reservation from seven years ago when Tesla briefly opened Brazil to Model 3 reservations. Realistically there seems to be no short term solution. A deal with CAOA or someone else might do it, but that would hardly be wise for Tesla anytime soon.

Realistically I think the demand would not be a problem, but the politics are prohibitive now.
Were that there were a better chance. OTOH, my spouse and family do like the Volvo.

Awesome input

So I think it's safe to say the chances of Giga Mexico being just for Central and South America are slim to none

 

[philw1776]

I had a similar experience last week when I was offered a Model X test drive while I waited for service when my MY needed front end suspension work at the North Shore Peabody, Mass service center. Service staff were excellent.

Even with 3 service centers in eastern Mass they still had 46 appointments scheduled for the next day. That has to be difficult to sustain. Several owners had driven several hours down from NH and Maine for service and mentioned how much Tesla needed to set up service centers in their states. Hopefully just a matter of time.

There is/was a thread on a Bedford NH Tesla service center that moved close to the Manchester Airport that has gone dark.
A better location that could service affluent Seacoast NH and Southern ME would be off RT95 in NH, maybe Portsmouth NH, or York ME.
Such a location could stimulate and support more sales demand.

 

[Knightshade]

It's telling and if the US does default on its debt...

it won't.

Probably the mods don't want any deep discussion of why, but there's both the 14th amendment literally saying we can't default, and at least 3 other methods Treasury has to avoid a default without needing the limit raised (1 involving the mint, and 2 involving some esoteric types of bonds they could continue to issue even with the ceiling in place). Almost indefinitely if needed.

The debt ceiling services no useful purpose at all by existing other than something for politicians to routinely manufacture a fake crisis over.

 

[winfield100]

Hmm, Mara Lago. Is your real name Don by any chance?(Donald).

@TesslaBull
check yer maps of florida, NWFL is nowhere near Mara Lardo, which is is SEFL

 

[AndrewZ]

Obviously I don't know the future. That said, I view the "debt ceiling" drama as more theater put on by criminals to keep the public distracted. I anticipate a last minute deal and the market may rally the next day. I hope it works out well for you!

I wouldn’t count on a market rally, or at least not a solid/lasting one.

Look into what happens to liquidity after debt ceilings are raised, more likely that liquidity will be drawn out of the stock market as the treasury begins issuing new debt ASAP to refill its coffers after a deal is reached.

 

[wipster]

Makes me wonder when people will stop clicking. How many hate articles can a single weirdo consume?

The thing is, many people just read the headline without clicking and therefore conclude that Teslas just burst into flames and based on that are dangerous vehicles, regardless of what the article really states.

Faux headlines are truly the enemy IMHO.

 

[unk45]

Awesome input

So I think it's safe to say the chances of Giga Mexico being just for Central and South America are slim to none

Maybe not. It all depends on political development between Mexico and Mercosur, Mexico and Brazil. Given the governments involved that may be a difficult task. We are discussing Tesla!
Remember that using a plethora of tiny batteries would never produce a decent car;
Remember that 100% foreign ownership of a manufacturing company was impossible;
Remember that there was no such thing as a Gigacasting;
Remember that to update a car with 'over the air' was impossible.

In the world of Tesla I doubt that anything positive would have 'slim to none' chances. I've no idea how that could work, but that never seems to stop Tesla!

 

[GhostSkater]

Maybe not. It all depends on political development between Mexico and Mercosur, Mexico and Brazil. Given the governments involved that may be a difficult task. We are discussing Tesla!
Remember that using a plethora of tiny batteries would never produce a decent car;
Remember that 100% foreign ownership of a manufacturing company was impossible;
Remember that there was no such thing as a Gigacasting;
Remember that to update a car with 'over the air' was impossible.

In the world of Tesla I doubt that anything positive would have 'slim to none' chances. I've no idea how that could work, but that never seems to stop Tesla!

Just to be clear

I'm not saying we won't get Tesla here, I think we will and it will come from Mexico

I'm saying that only part of the production from Giga Mexico will be for Central and South America, and part will also go somewhere else, US, Canada, Maybe even EU while the "Model 2" factory/line is being built there

 

[Nocturnal]

The thing is, many people just read the headline without clicking and therefore conclude that Teslas just burst into flames and based on that are dangerous vehicles, regardless of what the article really states.

Faux headlines are truly the enemy IMHO.

Yeah but if they don't click then the money dries up. I believe most media FUD exists because Tesla draws so many eyeballs. Negative headlines get the attention of both lovers and haters.

 

[lafrisbee]

Buy BUY BUY! Tomorrow will be too late because once what I say here spreads on the internet TSLA will go to the moon.
I first started down this road when someone on Elon's Messageboard mentioned robotaxi costing .20/mile. So i figured I could rent a robotaxi in lower manhattan and tell it to go around in circles (15MPH so $3/hr) and sleep. $24 for a hotel room in Manhattan.
And then I thought the next next level.
At night when the robotaxis are charging and parked.... POD HOTELS! Have showers available for an additional fee.
Added Valuation another trillion dollahs!

 

[generalenthu]

I wouldn’t count on a market rally, or at least not a solid/lasting one.

Look into what happens to liquidity after debt ceilings are raised, more likely that liquidity will be drawn out of the stock market as the treasury begins issuing new debt ASAP to refill its coffers after a deal is reached.

This here. Despite the doomer headlines this is like QE, where government is spending as usual without draining that money by issuing debt. They're raiding the couch and spending it.

The coffers will be refilled once the ceiling is raised. That will be like QT on steroids. Not looking forward to when the ceiling will be lifted. Markets won't be happy beyond the initial euphoria.

 

[Max Plaid]

I bought a house (Japan trip was eye-opening and enlightening), am in the middle of escrow, need to sell a little of my remaining TSLA holding, and am playing russian roulette with the share price during this debt ceiling ..."process". I have a little over a month.

Any feedback? I'm leaning towards just selling sometime this week and be happy.

Yesterday?

(there is a Florida Tesla users group btw)

Is that legal in Florida then?

 

[Maarten]

Good promotional action by Tesla today here in The Netherlands.
As a Tesla owner I have been given the opportunity to invite 5 persons (family, friends) to have a 24-hour test drive in a Model 3 or Model Y.
Guess this has been sent out wide to a lot of Tesla owners here.
And... my 5 invites are already out.

 

[Snerruc]

I believe I read the other day that the government will have 3.6 trillion coming in this year. That’s 80% of what it is spending. There is no reason to default.

 

[FireMedic]

Subscribed today. I’ve been waiting for this day…when I can just subscribe, and turn on beta; if it works for me, I keep it. If it doesn’t, I can unsubscribe and wait for a future build.

I really think this could be a major turning point for FSD take rate. I will follow up with what my experience is.

Anyone know how to force the FSD beta update? My car shows the toggle; but it’s greyed out. I’ve been on Wi-Fi most of the time, and I switched my software download setting to advanced to get the most current update ASAP.
Unfortunately, I’ll need to cancel the subscription by tonight in order to not get charged; I reached out to them, but no one has responded.
I was really hoping THIS would be the moment; but perhaps just a bit premature.
Sadly the NOA and basic FSD is essentially worthless as they’ve abandoned it to work on the beta builds.

Sorry mods; perhaps this belongs in the FSD thread; but it’s so toxic there that I rarely visit.

 

[EQC_]

Lots of solar panels being added to Gigafactories in Shanghai and Berlin over the past couple months.

From buildingtesla.com:

Berlin's main factory section is now just about covered with solar, and the battery cell plant is also well covered. You can also see bits of other construction...new smaller buildings, and what I think is the new stamping section at the North/top side of the main building.

Lots of solar also added to Shanghai roofs:

...And whatever they've been working on at the South-West corner of Giga Nevada seems to be, umm, healing nicely.

 

[ZeApelido]

These Tesla fan account names are getting out of hand.

 

[Electroman]

As long as method used is the same, the drop in Teslas reputation level in the results was significant, and lends to support to the increasing amount of anecdotes from members of this board of their interactions with acquaintances, friends & family regarding Tesla.

The media constantly pushing negative stories on every aspect of Tesla, Twitter and Musk, almost every day, it is bound to have an impact on the sheep that consumes it.

It many not be their personal experience at all, but simply a reflection of constant, consistent barrage of gaslighting by the media 24X7.