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Yes, the news that amazon added an option to use FCPGA in their cloud instances + general chip selloff. I don't see FCPGA being the default choice or being a threat to GPU cloud adaption. For software development debugging and flexibility is really important, once you got everything you working...

SolarCity's business model was the right for it's time but I think it will be changed and this is also something the market thinks too. It will be mostly customer ownership of the panels through loans or similar. And selling batteries and the solar roof. The changes SolarCity will go through has...

They could have sold quite a lot of PW1 in certain markets. But they probably quickly realized it was better to ramp it in GF and that was not ready and they also saw improvements so they postpone it all. It was the right decision but has hurt credibility for future predictions.

Yes the stock price has been a function of trust of management for a while. Elon has mostly guided correctly but with a slight delay but there are three major things that taint his track record: 1. Model X launch. The car was never ready but it was launched anyway, but even at the launch date...

I think it will require further capital to fund the optimal growth rate and S and X will not be enough for this. I am very positive to the merger but a combined company is very hard to calculate and predict the investments needed and the detailed business model too to some degree. How many...

This assumes SCTY will not change business model or how they operate. I think that might happen or is likely to happen.

The main point I want to make is that for the market there is not a whole lot of difference between 2000 or 2400 S and X per week if Tesla still spend it all and also need capital infusion and if S and X is the only substantial revenue they have. So there needs to be another source of revenue...

I think the market is fed up with the promises like that, and rightly so. Model X took way longer to ramp than stated as it was never ready, TE is not going in volumes either so I think everyone is just waiting on real numbers.

It will move it but the question is how much. Just 2400 a week will not mean a ATH from these levels, maybe it would have an impact to get it to $250 again. For TE I think it can take it to next level but only if the revenue is substantial, at-least over $1B on yearly basis. The problem now is...

Is there a reasonable high chance the number of shares Tesla will pay for each share of SolarCity can be updated or changed? Or is it stuck in this range because of the intent letter? Anyone knows how stuff like this normally plays out? The "arbitrage" is because of risk the deal does not go...

Yeah, you are right about DeepMind and that they have done some breakthroughs the last years. But if a breakthrough is needed, then the time-frame is really hard to predict. It might also not come from Tesla. Solving and use full autonomy for example as a airport shuttle service will be much...

It can happen sooner, I am no expert on this either although I know quite a bit about AI and computer science. Anyone investing in Tesla I don't think should give much weight to when it is going to happen based on Elon's statements. Normally you can sort of trust his predictions but have to add...

We are far away from it. Consider the improvement the last year and how far we still are from being able to not pay attention and just sleep in the backseat or watch a movie. I very much doubt that the HW sensors in the current cars are enough to reach that goal, too. My guess is atleast 10...

I think the only thing that is confirmed is that they won't be used for Model 3. It is still possible they could be used for Roadster and S and X. Eventually I suspect S and X also will use the new format that 3 will be using. TE feels the most likely to me. We know that TE requires a different...

I think the Samsung SDI deliver is just an indication that they need batteries and many of them. They have at-least three different applications now: current s+x form factor and chemistry (panasonic only for now), upcoming model 3 form factor and chemistry (confirmed to be panasonic only) and...

As much as I would like that it is very unlikely in my view. A ride-sharing platform maybe, but if you mean the idea that the car drives itself with no driver required I think that is not going to happen yet. How much progress has actually been made in one year on this and how much remains...

Yeah, but they probably know the BEV market will be there in 2020. They just don't know how many cars they can sell of a particular model which they need to know given how they do investment decisions. So yeah, that scenario is probably also described in the book and goes under that term, too...

Porsche is part of VW with many others so they would be able to charge at those dealers, too. The long range charger build-out I don't think will be that expensive. They just need to kickstart it with a standard and after that third parties can jump in too. I think a bigger reason why little is...

That's a part of it but I think there is more. It is very risky and hard for them at this point to compete with Model 3 even if they could get cheap batteries in volumes. i3 and Leaf would be prized lower if they estimated they could sell 1M+ of them during their life time which Tesla is...

The most serious competitor seems to be VW, at-least if one should go by rumors and PR statements. BMW probably realized they can't compete with Model 3 without betting and restructuring the company.

It is extremely likely at this point they will grow at 50% average up to 2020, even if there is a recession. They won't show any meaningful profit during this time as they will reinvest it all for further growth. So for me then the question comes what metric to use for the share price. I think...

Interesting news. PHEV sales will go up a lot the coming five years so they need batteries for that. This is what guys like Spiegel don't realize, it is mainly or almost exclusively about PHEV for VW and others. From lobbying for government incentives to R&D. They wan't to hold back the BEV...

Well, it is far fetched to account all R&D increase to the car. No-one except Apple knows the amount they spend on that.

Dennis is right, we don't know the demand for X, you keep thinking that your wait time data is reliable but it isn't. X is under a managed order rate and therefore kept low. You should use order rate and not demand as terms to avoid being wrong. Demand implies an equilibrium. Is it possible...

Growth is slowing down for S yes, but I take your estimate under 10% means 5% expected value with a large degree of uncertainty? This is just plain unlikely. If you mean 10% you would have expressed yourself differently. I have mentioned the scenarios I think it can happen in, though so it is a...

55K S for this year is in line with my estimate for the year. The production might be higher if X production lags and they feel the need to clear the channels again in Q4 like they did last year. As for X, they still have a sizable backlog and production is increasing. It is absolutely possible...

If you read the short term thread there has been plenty of disagreement among bulls. it is not a echo chamber. We are more bullish than elsewhere because we know more about the company. The more you know about Tesla the more bullish you tend to be it seems. The problem is that you just refuse to...

You keep failing to be clear what your message is. Is it now that growth is slowing from 50% for S? I don't think anyone would have an issue with that statement, it is also guided for by Tesla. The yoy growth for S from 2015 to 2016 is expected to be quite low, partly on purpose to free up...

If you use statements like "demand growth has flattened" in an investment thread most people will assume you don't mean quarter over quarter or the current year projections. Flattened means flat, not just slowing down it means approaching 0. It is a serious statement with big implications for a...

But you are not bullish on S and X long term growth unless they do costly changes to the product or advertisement? If you are, then I have no idea what you are posting about. My 11 points was factors that show why S and X will have long term growth. I am not interested in discussing how demand...

Maybe they will deliver 75k 2016, but that is not really important for long term investors, it is still over 50% growth. Your message is also that the the demand curve growth rate has flattened out and they can only make it go up again with costly actions like advertisement, price reductions...

Current demand right this second is probably 0. So it is all about the time window you use. Anything else than per quarter is too short if you want to determine if current production rate is aligned with current demand rate. Tesla can and will increase demand for both S and X without incurring...

This is an example of looking at data and the numbers too much. For me it is just enough to know Model X is the only electric SUV and that electric vehicles have big advantages for many customers and that the large premium car SUV market globally is many hundred of thousands of cars if not a...

Your $1M car for $300k example is clearly number 2 on my list. And your first sentence indicates you think 1 is false. So do you think what is happening is 2 or 3?

I have yet to see anyone really breaking the finances down on a detailed level to answer the questions how profitable the S+X line will be once it reaches 100k and has been at that rate for let's say 6 months. There is plenty of source for costs when a line is not running. Employees idling...

I don't think it is weird so we have different opinions. There are unavoidable costs necessary for growth which for many is unknown, but I am 100% certain they are close to optimally spent. To actually operate the line at a loss and keep it at a loss even after 2000 cars a week into 2016 and...

I have looked at the numbers too and you are not wrong but I am pretty sure this will change significantly. It just does not make sense that they can't turn a profit on a $10B revenue vertically integrated production line at a yearly rate of 100k cars from one factory with $90k cars especially...

One datapoint that I am interested in is how much commodity raw materials goes into a battery assembly pack. If you assume $20 price increase/KWh following from 50% commodity increase that assumes $40 would be commodity raw material out of the $130 (100% decline would be $40). If you instead...

Vertical integration gives them some key benefits: shorter development times and faster iterations. One comment Musk gave on the ER was interesting: they will be capable of vertical integration first for some parts and then later outsource if that is better. This is very different from how other...

It is not a big deal in terms of dilution but it is a big deal for controlling the story about Tesla. The bear narrative is that they burn cash and is a losing operation and eventually will fold because of competition and more resourceful competitors. So the more they have to raise the more it...

No doubt it has hurt the share price. Totally agree on that. But it is still important to not forget the exceptional growth rate even if it is lower than guidance and many do forget that and needs to be reminded :). Elon strikes me as someone that wants to tell the truth and answer honestly...

Can you explain to me the big difference between guiding for 85k and deliver 80k versus guiding for 75k and deliver 80k? I don't see it, it is just a number to Wall Street, what matters is how the company is growing.

They put those predictions that high to motivate/push the organization to work harder. What is important is the actual rate of growth and the cost to achieve that growth, not if they miss or beat predictions. The former Tesla is crazy good at and the latter they are bad at, but for a good...

it is a bit of a mystery, but I am going to assume they got the prices down. Shipping 45 KWh of batteries from Japan is not that expensive by boat compared to the value of those batteries so maybe Tesla has entered a new contract with Panasonic about large volumes from Japan or as I said before...

There is just one critical path in practice and Tesla has said GF construction is not on the critical path for Model 3. This is strange to me as well but I think an explanation is that they are going to sell the higher option versions of Model 3 for a while and have gotten better deal with...

Interesting story and especially what you got in your warehouse but you completely avoided to comment on the analogy you started. Also, young people are very often the ones that do change things. Elon has a track record of doing that exponentially with respect to time starting at a young age.

This analogy is inaccurate but I will go with in anyway. Let's say Apple back then actually operated like Tesla is now, hell-bent on being a leader in manufacturing or in their case to buy manufacturing services and to make a high volume computer at a low price and grow as fast as possible and...

They keep repeating though they want most of the expansion to come from operational cash flow, was mentioned again in last ER. It is just very hard to believe. Maybe it is just something they say but if they go down that somewhat deceptive route why not play the game fully and not disclose the...

But this for me is dependent on how they will get financing. I agree with you if it will be significant dilution but there is a possibility it won't be. And if it is not then there is no reason to wait.

Car factories do not cost tens of billions. Much less... in the $1.5B-2B range. Add to that the possible incentives from states both regional and national and the possibility of getting a factory for cheap because of ICE manufacturer problems similar to what happened in 2008. Also Model 3 will...