He won't. I think at some point he got questioned even if he's a Tesla owner and investor?
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He won't. I think at some point he got questioned even if he's a Tesla owner and investor?
No ifs. Recorded fact. Records are all here on TMC and # tagged. This includes the analysis and yes anyone that followed closely enough with enough money behind each trade will have made not hundreds but many thousands of percent. I am not aware of any source of forecasting and forward prediction that has out performed this.
Here again is the chart, below is a descriptor of each TMC #Tag. This comment for example is #17377 see top right of the comment field.
Jan 4th #328 Advisory. Projecting Model 3 Reservations will cause Guidance to 500,000 deliveries in 2020 to be upgraded. (Was upgraded to 1 Million May 4th with 500K brought forward to 2018).
Jan 6th #456 Negative Macro Condition dominance and not to buy TSLA on news of unconvincing competition from unveiled GM Bolt.
Jan 11th #782 Negative pending Quarterly Earnings & Guidance. Model X Soft Launch. No available support for share price until Mid Feb. Indicating strong support from that point.
Jan 11th #790 Advisory. Discussing basics of tech disruption and the cost basis of autonomy when applied to electric vehicles as opposed to internal combustion.
Jan 12th #852 Advisory. Discussing basics of tech disruption and the cost basis of autonomy when applied to electric vehicles as opposed to internal combustion.
Jan 13th #943 Advisory. Maintain Stance for Material News.
Jan 13th #991 Negative. Bear attack expected, no relief until mid Feb, Strong positive guided mid to late Feb.
Jan 14th #1176 Positive.
Jan 15th #1274. Negative. Detailed regards decision methodology.
Jan 28th #2444 Negative. Guard against unrealised losses. Bear attack during radio silence prior to earnings.
Feb 03rd #3390 and #3430 Advisory of disparity between market perceptions and upcoming Earnings Report
Q4 2015 Earnings Report.
Feb 18th #5908 Positive. Q1 Earnings call analysis
Mar 21st #8235 Advisory. Maintain $250 Price Target.
Mar 26th - 31st. Negative. April 1. Positive. See #6461. Note Brussels Terror attack dip unaccounted for three days sooner than predicted dip.
Mar 24th #8736 Positive. Detailed regards no sell on the news dip immediately following the Model 3 unveiling on March 31st
Tesla Motors Inc, Unveiling of the Tesla Model 3
Apr 01st #9971 Positive. Reaffirm upwards price movement above the pre unveil $230 level due to morning dip.
Apr 7th #11885 Negative. No additional upwards price expectation as a result of Model 3 unveiling as a result of under-performance of Q1 sales figures.
Apr 20th #13287 Negative. Price Target $180 - $220
Apr 26th #13770 Negative. Advisory not to treat $190/KWh pack level costs confirmed by Tesla IR as a buying signal (not a relevant stock market catalyst).
May 01st #14261 Negative. Reiterate nominal bottom of $180.
May 03rd #14537 Advisory. General advisory about autonomy.
May 04th #14592 Negative. Outcome of Earnings call will not be stock price gains.
Q1 2016 Earnings Report
May 05th #15041 Negative. Q1 Analysis, Q3, Q3 Corporate Guidance walk-back, apparent fundraiser sequencing error.
May 06th #15290 ADV Buy Alongside any near-term fundraiser
May 08th #15559 Advisory. Q1 Guidance Analysis. Possible White Swan warning.
Key: #Public Access record markers on independent web site: teslamotorsclub.com.
Note subsequent to this chart. 19th May. Pre-Market. Buy following fundraiser.
Per Elon Musk from one of conference calls in 2015 "Tesla can stimulate demand at will", so it must be a lot easier job.
I agree with this. It seem pretty obvious that some of the recent posters don't like you, Curt, Julian and others calling the bottom (accurately) and are trying to derail/interrupt the discussion on the forum of where the share price is heading. Which is up. Which is upsetting if you are caught with your (short) pants down.
Julian, your record doesnt need to be defended to those of us who have been paying attention. I for one very much appreciate your contributions. I'm already 90% in, would you recommend I go in with the last 10%? I'm also considering liquidating some of my other positions such as home depot and skyworks to hammer onto TSLA.
Perfectlogic
Member
Yeah I will probably soon take a break from the thread, the one thing I do agree with people on is that we are starting to beat a dead horse here so to say. I really hope Tesla will actually drop to $120 in the next 12 months which I do think has at least a 50% chance of happening, this thread would be incredibly entertaining I'm sure.
Perfectlogic
Member
Yea I'm not reading all that. The chance of you actually being as competent as you claim is literally not even a billion to one, noone has been able to show that kind of returns ever in the history of man kind, otherwise it would be a huge news story as people are praising Warren Buffett as one of the greatest investors because he beat the market by 10% or something for a while. When you can show me a screen shot of 1000% yearly returns over lets just say 2 years then we can talk, but that will of course never happen.
/sigh I've only blocked one person since joining this forum. Looks like I'll be adding a few more. PL, JamesTSLA and others I think you should check out seekingalpha. While I very much prefer having bears give their perspective in this forum, it appears your preference leans towards cherry picking information and applying it.. creatively. Well, given that you follow the format of most FUDsters, perhaps, not so creatively. If you dont have any information to contribute, feel free to move on without insulting members personally. Thankfully I wont have to continue reading your redundant and useless posts.
Have a great weekend and please please continue shorting TSLA.
Perfectlogic
Member
I now understand how people here can be so confident in their investment. I mean even if Tesla ever has serious cash problems you can always come in and buy the company with your 1000% yearly gains.
Perfectlogic
Member
Still don't have a short position. I guess being a hyper bull is easy when you just make things up.
LargeHamCollider
Battery cells != scalable
I suggest regular posters on this thread think of and adopt an anti-troll strategy.
Every other month a new troll shows up and incessantly repeats some bear thesis that has already been discussed, after 1-2 weeks they leave never to return.
Personally I think ignoring such trolls completely is the best strategy.
Every other month a new troll shows up and incessantly repeats some bear thesis that has already been discussed, after 1-2 weeks they leave never to return.
Personally I think ignoring such trolls completely is the best strategy.
So many negatives there. You can teach a shorter or two on how to sound geniunely bearish
That is very kind, but I don't like to cross the line from offering reasons for others to think about the stock direction to providing investment advice - but the following caught my attention as a good idea:
I strongly suggest that these gentlemen place all of their money and anything they can borrow, ideally from each other into $100 TSLA Puts (and only them of course, because obviously it would be unfair if everyone just looted their genius $120 PT trade for all that lovely money). No need to hesitate, just go for it. It's only to remember first to re-pay the broadband until June 2017 and stock up on a lot of canned food - that way they can come and tell us all about it assuming they haven't done each other in first.
mejojo
Active Member
Hahahaha.....you're not a regular poster here...you just popped in for the occasion. Good riddance.
sub
Active Member
So let me get this straight, Elon has all the data and inside info and stated 80-90k deliveries for this year and reiterated this only weeks ago. He also just upped his stake in TSLA and he did both of these things knowing it was all going to come crashing down on him in the next 6 months?
The same short thesis as usual, Elon is a liar and Tesla is run by idiots. You heard it here first from the anonymous internet troll who is so brilliant that instead of sitting on a beach enjoying his infinite wealth he has made from out smarting everyone in the market, he is here trying to save us poor souls. No need to worry about the poor souls that are on the other side of our TSLA exit trades however.
The same short thesis as usual, Elon is a liar and Tesla is run by idiots. You heard it here first from the anonymous internet troll who is so brilliant that instead of sitting on a beach enjoying his infinite wealth he has made from out smarting everyone in the market, he is here trying to save us poor souls. No need to worry about the poor souls that are on the other side of our TSLA exit trades however.
So many negatives there. You can teach a shorter or two on how to sound geniunely bearish
Indeed. It was pretty soul destroying on the down legs. At one point (May 5th) I wrote this:
"I am definitely impressed with their focus on running a tight ship. Wheeler and Elon seems to be doing a great job. Nevertheless they are on a hiring and spending spree from June - which is also terrific - but pretty much replaces Q4 guidance except where reaffirmed.
I need to stop this. It is not my desire to become the freaking TSLA bear around here."
Anyway.
Ultra Bull is back on.
Phew.
BTW having been paid the back handed compliment of achieving the humanly impossible, what me and the home boys at EV Volumes have going on is the world's only on the ground research in 42 countries tracking monthly EV and PHEV sales at the national level. It seems to be materially useful when analyzing the performance of a company where nobody else really knows what is going on with deliveries between quarters.
Perfectlogic
Member
While I have beaten market returns, I admit I can't match the 1000% returns of EV-Volumes and I am only 25 so I don't have enough to be chilling on a beach just yet (and I doubt this thread will stop being entertaining at that point anyway).
You guys really love straw men, is that really the only way you can put together an argument that sounds reasonable? Attacking a position not a single person has stated?
When Elon gave the 80-90k guidance last year it made perfect sense, and I believed it too back then. They had 25k orders for the X and they were supposed to hit 2k/week capacity already in Q1. At this point it doesn't look likely that they will make it anymore, but it isn't impossible. It would make no sense to lower the guidance already this early in the year while they still have a chance to hit it. Plus even if Elon thought they have absolutely no chance of hitting the 80k it actually wouldn't make sense to lower the guidance as they were about to do a capital raise.
sundaymorning
Active Member
The best weapon against a fool is to let him keep talking. Don't respond, just let him keep talking.
Maybe they will deliver 75k 2016, but that is not really important for long term investors, it is still over 50% growth.
Your message is also that the the demand curve growth rate has flattened out and they can only make it go up again with costly actions like advertisement, price reductions, more equipment in the car etc. This is just plain wrong. You are zooming in with a magnifying glass and work your brain to overheat over just a couple of quarters and are missing the big picture. Here are some big facts that you may have missed:
1. The general vehicle market has a high growth rate for BEV.
2. Tesla is the only serious maker of premium BEV and will remain the only one to at-least 2020. I and others have written about this before so please check post history. Not going to repeat it.
3. Other auto makers are committed to PHEV, which means consumer acceptance for BEV also will automatically increase in a big way. The main requested improvement for PHEV is more electric range. No one is doing BEV yet in a "bet the company" kind of commitment except Tesla and some Chinese manufacturers. They need to do that to be competitive with Tesla because they need to manufacturer in volumes, they need charging networks etc and they need to be prepared to kill ICE sales. This is not happening yet.
4. Several cities around the world are talking about banning diesel cars and introduce customs and fees in city centers. Some countries with severe pollution will be aggressive about this.
5. The premium SUV market is very large, several hundred of thousand of cars if not millions.
6. Countries like Sweden for example are amping up the tax incentives. The latest suggestion is probably going to mean a $12k tax difference between buying a Cayenne Turbo vs the Model X. Model X is not even on sale in Sweden yet.
7. In many European countries electricity is cheap compared to gasoline, under half the cost for comparable range.
8. Tesla has few or no stores in many potentially big markets, like South Korea.
9. Tesla has a very high percentage growth in many markets, but the absolute unit growth is not high yet because of low base numbers. This is because they prioritized US and California because of user acquisition costs and logistics. The smaller markets unit growth will be significant soon because the way exponential growth works.
10. The more Tesla cars on the road, the more people will consider them. Model 3 will make a big difference.
11. Global warming is not going to solve itself. Neither is city pollution.
Also, Amazon had plenty of quarters that were far from stellar with flat growth and disappointments. Even whole years. Apple had some too with their iPhone run but fewer than Amazon. And Tesla in previous years also had flat quarter over quarter growth. This is nothing new for large revenue growth companies so please don't make it sound like it is.
Above is all strong factors of growth for S and X. But you somehow think other things (what?) will offset this and make the growth rate come down to low or flat levels.
You really should stop posting about this until you have done more research and can come up with something new then your short term quarter wait time only data driven "analysis".
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