Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[lango]

Exactly. He also said "It would be really big news if I start (elaborating) here." His body language alone gives the sense that it's going to be huge news. I think it's very likely that they are going to announce their own ride-sharing platform based on autonomy.

As much as I would like that it is very unlikely in my view. A ride-sharing platform maybe, but if you mean the idea that the car drives itself with no driver required I think that is not going to happen yet. How much progress has actually been made in one year on this and how much remains? Tesla's cars are far from being capable of driving themselves without any driver. The only thing they can do is highway driving and requires driver grabbing the steering wheel regularly, and there is no reason to believe the rest has been solved up until now.

Well there is one reason actually and that is the time frame claims the people that work on this have expressed including Elon. So yeah, I am not 100% comfortable saying they are wrong but there is no other reasons or proof of progress except those claims that this goal has been attained yet. Also AI claims historically have been wrong, so there is that too. It is just recently we had some progress with Deepmind's breakthroughs and before that the deep learning algorithm and how it has been implemented successfully in various applications including self driving cars.

Then there is the regulation which will take years after the technical problem is solved. Also Google's cars have more expensive equipment including roof mounted I think cameras and they are not their yet either and Model 3 will need to have cheaper equipment.

There is one other possibility. Full autonomy restricted to a route, for example to SF or LA airport back and forth. That is a much more narrow AI problem and could get regulatory approval.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Elon's answer "the obvious thing" was regarding a question about Model 3 Auto Pilot and Autonomy.

Ah, right. Sorry. Actually it was a response to a suggestion that they might do full autonomy for the $35K base model. I suppose the obvious thing is no, it will cost extra for the full sensor suite. I think it is significant that later Elon says that he considers full autonomy a "solved problem", so that just leaves small issues like getting the bugs out of the software and getting the cost of the hardware down.

But obviously I need to stay awake better so I don't lose context.

 

[Causalien]

Elon's neck roll. Don't know if you guys have noticed this in previous interviews. But whenever he does this. It's also associated with a smugness about some hidden weapon. This response is with regards to a question about an event in 6 weeks when pencils down happens. The answer is: "We are not expecting an event in six weeks."

Which can be used to hide something, or it could be the truthful answer. With the neck roll, I am expecting this to be misdirection. While the statement is technically true, it could be that they have an event on week 7 instead. I am guessing it'll be during the gigafactory party instead.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wsixsRI-Sz4&feature=youtu.be&t=4433

 

[TMSE]

Elon's neck roll. Don't know if you guys have noticed this in previous interviews. But whenever he does this. It's also associated with a smugness about some hidden weapon. This response is with regards to a question about an event in 6 weeks when pencils down happens. The answer is: "We are not expecting an event in six weeks."

Which can be used to hide something, or it could be the truthful answer. With the neck roll, I am expecting this to be misdirection. While the statement is technically true, it could be that they have an event on week 7 instead. I am guessing it'll be during the gigafactory party instead.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wsixsRI-Sz4&feature=youtu.be&t=4433

Neck roll like this?

 

[steve3]

Daimler Creates Mercedes Energy Storage Subsidiary

Expecting the Gigaparty to provide a lot of visibility to Tesla TE, spotlighting incremental revenue & production capacity over & above M3 battery supply. Followed up a week later with Q2 ER...will they include some juicy TE guidance, or wait for some tangible results, maybe completion of the 50 mWh Hawaii project?

 

[MitchJi]

China Set to Control Crucial Metal for Electric Cars

Conclusion:
Peterson explained, will be felt most by lithium-ion battery makers that are trying to buy the metal in a dwindling market.

Sellers will give priority to long-time customers like GE, rather than new kids on the block like Tesla.

Petersen believes supplies of the metal to the battery industry will fall 30% to 50% over the next year. This is not good news for all those eagerly awaiting their Model 3s.

Based on the apparent problems with global cobalt supply and China’s growing control over it, it’s hard to understand Tesla’s complacency.

Maybe Elon Musk believes in miracles! Nothing short of one will ensure that Tesla gets all the cobalt it needs to hold on to its footing in the automotive world.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

China Set to Control Crucial Metal for Electric Cars

I'll just post these here. No explanation needed. The author of the article doesn't provide any evidence to support his claims, and cites Peterson of all people as an authority. As usual, Peterson is wrong.

All the info you could possibly need about Cobalt mining throughout the world, and the Idaho Cobalt Project.
Formation Metals Inc. - Page - Mon Jun 6, 2016
High-Tech Demand Sparks Return of Cobalt Mines
USGS Minerals Information: Cobalt
http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/cobalt/mcs-2016-cobal.pdf

Formations Metal Inc. highlights Tesla as a major driver of demand for Cobalt in its most recent investor presentation, and states the company is the only company with the proper permits and seems to imply the company is fully prepared to increase supply to meet the growing demand for cobalt, specially cobalt that is ethically sourced.

 

[MitchJi]

I'll just post these here. No explanation needed. The author of the article doesn't provide any evidence to support his claims, and cites Peterson of all people as an authority. As usual, Peterson is wrong.

Thanks! I thought the article was probably FUD, but I wasn't sure.

 

[SBenson]

AP 1.0 is the 'heads up' data set, not the 'it doesn't count data set'.

Tesla: Here is our AP 1.0 data set of 1 billion miles. It clearly shows a 50% reduction in accidents. We're getting ready to roll our AP 2.0 and we're confident that it'll show an even more substantial improvement based on what we've already recorded and analyzed behind the scenes. We'll be back in 12 months with a 5 billion mile data set.

NHTSA: That's very interesting. What do you want us to do about that?

Tesla: We're giving you this data so that you can get busy organizing and preparing to implement a new set of safety standards and rules. There'll be no denying the data and the public is going to demand their vehicles come with autonomous driving. You'll not want to be caught with your pants down and behind the curve.

If only regulators operated that way. We would have long gotten approval for side view cameras replacing the mirrors, no?

 

[madodel]

Also 10 Top Cobalt-producing Countries - Investing News Network

 

[tanner]

Wondering why on earth it's going so low compared to Friday / premarket.... Oil and macro are up?

 

[Causalien]

I'll just post these here. No explanation needed. The author of the article doesn't provide any evidence to support his claims, and cites Peterson of all people as an authority. As usual, Peterson is wrong.

View attachment 179697

All the info you could possibly need about Cobalt mining throughout the world, and the Idaho Cobalt Project.
Formation Metals Inc. - Page - Mon Jun 6, 2016
High-Tech Demand Sparks Return of Cobalt Mines
USGS Minerals Information: Cobalt
http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/cobalt/mcs-2016-cobal.pdf

Formations Metal Inc. highlights Tesla as a major driver of demand for Cobalt in its most recent investor presentation, and states the company is the only company with the proper permits and seems to imply the company is fully prepared to increase supply to meet the growing demand for cobalt, specially cobalt that is ethically sourced.

Canada is defrosting due to global warming. So I wouldn't be worried. Bring another pipeline up here for cobalt.

 

[Krugerrand]

If only regulators operated that way. We would have long gotten approval for side view cameras replacing the mirrors, no?

No.

 

[SBenson]

No.

Figures. Unabiding faith has its own blindness.

 

[techmaven]

China Set to Control Crucial Metal for Electric Cars

Good old John Petersen. How is AXPW doing?

 

[Krugerrand]

Figures. Unabiding faith has its own blindness.

Why the personal attack? Are you having a bad day? You asked a question, I answered it. If you wanted a more detailed response all you had to do was ask. But let me take the high road.

Side view cameras are an entirely different feature. Seat belts were an 'addition' to cars and were entirely 'voluntary'. Therefore they could be added to cars without needing to change any safety rules. It then became apparent that seat belts saved lives and voila the rules changed.

Side view cameras would be 'replacing' an existing safety feature. That makes the situation entirely different. First it would have to be proven that side view cameras could do what current side view mirrors do. That's easy. But then it would have to be proven that they didn't increase the likelihood of accidents. That's more difficult.

1. There would have to be a display in the car that ALWAYS showed the side views since the current mirrors always show those side views. Having a display be able to change the view or turn it off just opens a big can of worms and an opportunity for human error.

2. The technology has to prove reliability. It can't break.

I suspect that side view mirrors will become obsolete once autonomy happens and it will be at that point that side view cameras become the norm. Adding for clarity: There'd be no need for a side view on display with autonomy, instead the data from the side cameras/sensors/whathaveyou would simply add to the overall information input of the system. Perhaps initially the 'driver/passenger' of the car could bring up a view from those cameras on the display if they wanted to or maybe side views display automatically when autonomy is turned off and a person wants to physically drive?

 

[vgrinshpun]

Good old John Petersen. How is AXPW doing?

I think he was not writing about Tesla for a while as he was getting over the "loss of the Castle". I guess now, once he eased himself into the reality of the situation, the penny per click for the Seeking Alpha articles present a good earning opportunity for him, all things considering...

The guy is absolutely shameless, and has a long history of spectacularly wrong predictions. I remember him predicting that Tesla quarterly earnings will be "crushed" due to $66M charge he calculated Tesla will have to take due to the titanium shield installation post the debris collisions. His professional (he is accountant by trade after all) "calculation" was off by the factor of 33, as actual cost of titanium shields was just under $2M.

 

[FredTMC]

Wonder why the immediate sell off today at the open?
Subsequent recovery was good.

 

[W84M3]

Wonder why the immediate sell off today at the open?
Subsequent recovery was good.

Well you did post a Model X crash article and your friend is retweeting it with Mark Spiegel loving it ;-).

 

[FredLambert]

Well you did post a Model X crash article and your friend is retweeting it with Mark Spiegel loving it ;-).

I think you are confusing FredTMC with myself.

Yeah I think there's something really fishy with this thing. I asked Tesla for the logs (told the owner too). I think they will shed some light on this, but my initial feeling: something not right here.