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Ad hominem attacks aside, You’re completely right that I would be allocating resources towards the higher margin products first. Maybe we should be asking why the ramp up is taking so long, why the CEO thinks the originally promised price will now “kill” the company, why the reliability has...

Model 3 is a luxury sedan? Usually luxury sedans don’t include features like vanity mirrors installed with 2 sided tape and misaligned body panels and other things that legacy automakers figured out by 1980 or so.

Good questions. First, GM reportedly loses money on each one, but that’s OK because they earn billions from the rest of the cars they sell. Tesla doesn’t have that luxury. I have not really dove into it since I have no position in GM. I will say that if you absolutely must have a BEV and...

I think to settle this argument, we need to see 5K M3s per week and the introduction of the $35K variant. I can’t wait!

A simple review of the financials doesn’t make this sound very far fetched

I noticed Elon’s comment on Twitter today about an update to the Superchargers, anyone know where the capital for this is going to come from? While we’re talking about updates to existing products, when does the battery swap get rolled out, or the solar shingles?

The brakes issue that Consumer Reports noted is not surprising based on the YouTube video where someone went around Laguna Seca and destroyed the brakes. I would expect the P version to have an upgrade

Nope. I was referring to a chart someone posted of auto GM correlated with deliveries. I thought it was interesting, but doesn’t change my position.

This has been a fun experiment so far. I joined the site, stated my position and the reasons for it and then what happened was very interesting. Most counterpoints involved ad hominem attacks about my education, personal wealth, and professional background. A few contained legitimate points...

I don’t see Tesla building M3s at a scale sufficient to achieve profitability for a sustained period. I understand Elon’s prediction for Q3 and I see the possibility of having an isolated profitable quarter similar to Q3 2016 when they eked out $20 million by selling $140 million of ZEV...

Agreed - M3 was botched.

Perhaps Tesla’s biggest asset is the patience of their customers. I know I wouldn’t have anything to do with a new car that immediately goes to a body shop for rework, no thanks.

Likewise

Ah yes, Q3 2016 a whopping $0.15/share profit, or $21.9 million in total. If I recall correctly, they sold almost $140 million in ZEV credits that quarter. Before and after that quarter, it was massive losses as usual.

Lol, OK fair enough. It’s safe to say I take just about anything Elon says with a grain of salt. Years of missing guidance tends to shift my outlook.

I can walk and chew gum at the same time bro. My short thesis is still intact, the more cars they sell, the larger the losses.

Just a theory bro. On the other hand, they could have announced the $35K model instead.

No problem, Q3 is going to prove one of us wrong. Place your bets.

So I’m not expecting the latest one to be any different.

The difficulty in obtaining refunds is well documented. What I’m saying they should do is come clean and either give a date for the $35K version or say it’s never coming.

It’s not that we “don’t want to hear it”. It’s that every single Elon prediction about positive cash flow and profitability has proven to be wrong in the past. Mod: False to the facts, as has been pointed out before. Not acceptable behavior even in your own thread. --ggr

@Reciprocity Are you predicting free cash flow positive in Q2? I’m forecasting a burn similar to slightly worse than Q1, depending on the developments of Accounts Payable, Deposits, and ZEV credit sales.

My take on the $78K - $82K M3 is someone (probably Deepak) told Elon the Company is in big trouble unless they can get the ASP to move higher. On that point, good for them. If there is a huge demand for those versions of the car, I may need to rethink my short thesis. On the other hand, how...

Making a price announcement at midnight on a Sunday, very disruptive!

Can we all agree there’s no more short squeezes? Elon predicting another short squeeze is about as believable as FSD capability.

Friendly reminder, short sellers don’t affect share price.

Yes, posting these costs as “goodwill” allow an artificially high gross margin calculation. This is why the “Services and Other” segment loses more money as cars delivered increases. FWIW - I think it’s interesting but doesn’t really affect my short thesis. The more cars they sell, the more...

Ok got it, great chart

I was actually being serious. Look at margins from all automotive segments - Sales, Leasing, Services & Other.

How do we know two or more of the pumpers aren’t the same person?

Using RavagesOfTime’s logic, Jim Chanos and Mark Spiegel and the tens of thousands of other Tesla shorts are really 1 person. I’m so glad to have these types of geniuses as counterparties.

I find it interesting that RavagesofTims posted the same accusation on 4 different threads.

I’ve passed this along to BagholderQuotes on Twitter.

Elon has said the same thing 3 or 4 times in the past, and missed badly. It pays to do your own work and not rely on Elon.

I predict when all of this shakes out, I will get a lot of messages from people saying they wished they listened.

Agreed. I think the TRowe policy is not to own 10% of a company, but I don’t have a link for it, just what I’ve heard from other investors.

I wouldn’t hang my hat on institutional investors, there’s a lot of passive index funds who don’t have a choice on what they buy or sell. That being said. T Rowe Price adding more shares does surprise me.

I hope you mean that to apply to everyone. There’s a lot of people assuming Q3 turns positive bro.

Good responses by Reality, I simply don’t have the patience to go point by point anymore only to get jumped on. I stand by my comment that all of those points have some truth to them.

Since May 2017, before that I was just gathering info and doing DD, not sure where it was going to lead.

I would add services & other to that as well. All 3 together gives you the entire automotive picture.

OK, my boss is going to be upset because I’m playing on the Internet, but I saw your charts and couldn’t help myself. Looking at March 2018 total gross margin, I’m questioning why total gross margin is decreasing even though M3 had begun to ramp up. The pattern beginning at the M3 launch...

Looks good, I just have a lot going on today to dive in, but I’ll bookmark and come back

Not worth the trip down the rabbit hole bro, I could tell you the sky is blue and I would have 10 Tesla fans calling me a lying short.

All of those points have some element of truth to them.

I guess this thread got slightly off track, but does anyone think a short squeeze is still coming? IMO the price action from $240 to above $300 earlier this quarter was probably the last one.

Nope - Cars that are fully assembled and not yet delivered to customers are finished goods inventory.

Yup, at this point I’m skeptical of anything coming out of this Company.

I think it’s a combination of labor and parts. To be fair though, it doesn’t affect my short thesis at all. It’s just worth noting that Services & Other should be included along with auto sales and auto leases when analyzing the segment. When you look at all 3 together, it doesn’t matter what...

Will do, and I just want to note the post above was meant to be a summary only.