Hi, I’m a short seller

[bhzmark]

When this is your claim :

It’s that every single Elon prediction about positive cash flow and profitability has proven to be wrong in the past.

Don't try to change the topic:

Ah yes, Q3 2016 a whopping $0.15/share profit, or $21.9 million in total. If I recall correctly, they sold almost $140 million in ZEV credits that quarter. Before and after that quarter, it was massive losses as usual.

You just look foolish.

the more cars they sell, the larger the losses.

This kind of statement, and your unironic use of the word "bro" suggests to me that you really have nothing interesting to say -- I thought I saw a glimmer of intelligent analysis in there, but no.

 

[ShortSeller]

When this is your claim :


Don't try to change the topic:


You just look foolish.



This kind of statement, and your unironic use of the word "bro" suggests to me that you really have nothing interesting to say -- I thought I saw a glimmer of intelligent analysis in there, but no.

Likewise

 

[sundaymorning]

One more bear argument for shorts to swallow.

U.S., China putting trade war on hold, Treasury's Mnuchin says

 

[Singer3000]

I can walk and chew gum at the same time bro. My short thesis is still intact, the more cars they sell, the larger the losses.

Hello Shortseller, on the Cash Cow thread I gave you a couple of charts that undermine this argument, in particular breaking down gross margin and showing past operating leverage. Happy to hear your reasoning why you disagree.

In particular, even if you are right and Q3/4 are not P&L breakeven, are you not concerned that after stripping out depreciation and stock based compensation and accounting for improvements in working capital, Tesla would still be potentially quite strongly cashflow positive? If I was in your shoes, I'd be quite concerned by the possibility of this outcome but I haven't heard a clear answer from you why you are not.

 

[generalenthu]

Hello Shortseller, on the Cash Cow thread I gave you a couple of charts that undermine this argument, in particular breaking down gross margin and showing past operating leverage. Happy to hear your reasoning why you disagree.

In particular, even if you are right and Q3/4 are not P&L breakeven, are you not concerned that after stripping out depreciation and stock based compensation and accounting for improvements in working capital, Tesla would still be potentially quite strongly cashflow positive? If I was in your shoes, I'd be quite concerned by the possibility of this outcome but I haven't heard a clear answer from you why you are not.

@Singer3000 like your work, and wanted to chime in. @ShortSeller is long a few 35 and 50 strike puts and just loves roiling up the boards here. He had a couple of questions that might have fooled folks who got long and didn't look into any numbers. His thesis that all the accounts are probably fraud, and even the cash balance is manipulated. Reasonable folks can have a dialog and converse, but not sure this is headed anywhere useful.

 

[Singer3000]

@Singer3000 like your work, and wanted to chime in. @ShortSeller is long a few 35 and 50 strike puts and just loves roiling up the boards here. He had a couple of questions that might have fooled folks who got long and didn't look into any numbers. His thesis that all the accounts are probably fraud, and even the cash balance is manipulated. Reasonable folks can have a dialog and converse, but not sure this is headed anywhere useful.

Thanks, what a strange hobby for ShortSeller...

I finally signed up to an account here, as the price correction led to some introspection on the proportion of my net worth that is now tied up in one company, having added on the dips (and one unfortunate peak) over a few years. I wanted to understand why so much money was betting against me, so I've tried to engage here in good faith, while going back again through every report and every call since the IPO.

I still don't really see the short play. Sure, I can see how the share price may bump around within a wide band and be at a medium term ceiling given macros, but to feel strongly enough to actively short? So far as I can tell from the contributions here, it's based upon a belief in negative operating leverage, an unwillingness to understand how fixed costs interplays with gross margins and from one poster, a bizarre belief that EUR and NOK are nonconvertible currencies. The longer term demand/competition arguments may turn out to have have some legs but even then, the share price could bounce quite aggressively before that thesis comes to pass and impacts the valuation. It's frustrating me quite a bit actually, my intention through this was to temper my own expectations and find an excuse to refrain from adding further to my personal risk concentration. But I've ended up buying more!

 

[ShortSeller]

Hello Shortseller, on the Cash Cow thread I gave you a couple of charts that undermine this argument, in particular breaking down gross margin and showing past operating leverage. Happy to hear your reasoning why you disagree.

In particular, even if you are right and Q3/4 are not P&L breakeven, are you not concerned that after stripping out depreciation and stock based compensation and accounting for improvements in working capital, Tesla would still be potentially quite strongly cashflow positive? If I was in your shoes, I'd be quite concerned by the possibility of this outcome but I haven't heard a clear answer from you why you are not.

I don’t see Tesla building M3s at a scale sufficient to achieve profitability for a sustained period. I understand Elon’s prediction for Q3 and I see the possibility of having an isolated profitable quarter similar to Q3 2016 when they eked out $20 million by selling $140 million of ZEV credits. This quarter was bookended by massive losses of course. I expect Q2 to be a complete disaster given the two M3 line shutdowns.

 

[ShortSeller]

This has been a fun experiment so far. I joined the site, stated my position and the reasons for it and then what happened was very interesting. Most counterpoints involved ad hominem attacks about my education, personal wealth, and professional background. A few contained legitimate points that caused me to take a look at my due diligence.

 

[replicant]

This has been a fun experiment so far. I joined the site, stated my position and the reasons for it and then what happened was very interesting. Most counterpoints involved ad hominem attacks about my education, personal wealth, and professional background. A few contained legitimate points that caused me to take a look at my due diligence.

I'm really sorry for you.

 

[elasalle]

This has been a fun experiment so far. I joined the site, stated my position and the reasons for it and then what happened was very interesting. Most counterpoints involved ad hominem attacks about my education, personal wealth, and professional background. A few contained legitimate points that caused me to take a look at my due diligence.

.... and throw in the towel ?

 

[Unpilot]

Well comments like model 3 is built by hand don't help your credibility much Mr. Short

 

[ShortSeller]

.... and throw in the towel ?

Nope. I was referring to a chart someone posted of auto GM correlated with deliveries. I thought it was interesting, but doesn’t change my position.

 

[Reality]

This has been a fun experiment so far. I joined the site, stated my position and the reasons for it and then what happened was very interesting. Most counterpoints involved ad hominem attacks about my education, personal wealth, and professional background. A few contained legitimate points that caused me to take a look at my due diligence.

you were also accused of being me, so not every attack was negative

 

[mongo]

you were also accused of being me, so not every attack was negative

That is so Meta...

 

[Reality]

Consumer Reports rating the Model 3 a 57 (ie: ****ing terrible)


Enjoy your 60k+ rides guys


edit 60k as in dollars, almost no chance a model 3 makes it 60k miles

 

[JoaoD]

Consumer Reports rating the Model 3 a 57 (ie: ****ing terrible)


Enjoy your 60k+ rides guys


edit 60k as in dollars, almost no chance a model 3 makes it 60k miles

Show me were did they rate it a 57.
I'm guessing for you they rated every hybrid and Ev a 57 since it says "57 Hybrids/EVs in Our Ratings."

 

[ShortSeller]

The brakes issue that Consumer Reports noted is not surprising based on the YouTube video where someone went around Laguna Seca and destroyed the brakes. I would expect the P version to have an upgrade

 

[Reality]

Show me were did they rate it a 57.
I'm guessing for you they rated every hybrid and Ev a 57 since it says "57 Hybrids/EVs in Our Ratings."

Whoops, you are right, 72, much better (jk still terrible) also "Not recommended"

 

[plumazul]

Whoops, you are right, 72, much better (jk still terrible) also "Not recommended"

350 MILES!! An all time record for CR.

 

[plumazul]

Consumer Reports rating the Model 3 a 57 (ie: ****ing terrible)


Enjoy your 60k+ rides guys


edit 60k as in dollars, almost no chance a model 3 makes it 60k miles

LOL, what an absolutely ridiculous comment.