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  1. Orbit

    Elon Musk, Funding Secured, SEC, Summary Judgement, Jury found not liable

    This post is regarding the legal charges against Elon making tweets about taking Tesla private, and how they concluded. After seeing some very confused yet confident dialogue about this topic, I carefully searched for the below information on this forum and couldn’t find it posted anywhere, all...
  2. Orbit

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yes I’m sure because I qualify as a the kind of person that my hypothetical set up. Also the judge ruled that the statement was false. Yes. And, the lack of any reaction to other things is also nonsensical. Really? For what reason? I think he backed off about 2 weeks after his announced it...
  3. Orbit

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I didn’t argue that Elon tried to deceive anyone. I argued that it was not true to call it “secured”, and that is a pattern of risk taking by him, which has a mix of consequences, some of which are negative and some are positive. What would an ordinary person think if the CEO of a company puts...
  4. Orbit

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I agree that Elon believed funding was not a problem. My assertion isn’t that “Elon lied”, or that “Elon committed fraud”. My assertion is that he said something which was technically false, and that ended up objectively having a negative impact on Tesla’s long term reputation and health...
  5. Orbit

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    So why did Elon’s own lawyer not make the same argument as Elon, instead of conceding it was technically inaccurate? Or can you at least repeat the argument that Elon used to explain it? You can’t can you? Yet you jumped on me for “spreading misinformation”.
  6. Orbit

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Elon’s own lawyer conceded it was “technically inaccurate” to say it was secured. Yet you know better? How about clearing up all this misinformation and explaining how Elon’s lawyer, and us forum members who agree with him, are all wrong? If Elon’s lawyer is so bad as to spread misinformation...
  7. Orbit

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I thought the same about the riskiness of suggesting that I myself would live up to this proposed ethical standard when I said this. But truth is pretty good guidance for investment. Still a fair amount of signal behind Elon/Tesla, despite the noise.
  8. Orbit

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Twitter was in genuine crisis. It can be both employee motivation and existential risk to the company. Much easier to convince the employees the company might go bankrupt if it is a real possibility. If you are willing to push to the brink, there is more upside. I think Elon loves legitimate risk.
  9. Orbit

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    SEC was apparently split on whether to pursue him on it, 3 votes to 2. Still, I haven’t seen any convincing argument that funding was “secured”, rather than “discussed and likely available”. That wording would have prevented the damaging fall out. That is part of the risk/reward analysis of...
  10. Orbit

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I’m wrong on many other points. As per my previous message, I’m human, I make mistakes. If someone points them out I try to have the humility to acknowledge them and learn. But I’m not wrong on this one. Secure verb past tense: secured; past participle: secured 1. fix or attach...
  11. Orbit

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I think so too, especially the Asperger’s bit.
  12. Orbit

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Why are you speaking at me like that? Ding ding ding? I stand by my belief that even though there has been positive and negative stories about him for well over a decade, the ratio of negative to positive stories about him has increased in the last 5 years. Elon himself has commented on the...
  13. Orbit

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Same with me on the time lines. The narrative about him has shifted, many people who idealized him now vilify him. Every day people, outside of the media. Surely you agree with that? I think what is a recent thing is the high ratio of negative to positive news coverage. I don’t have data on...
  14. Orbit

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Thank you for sharing. My thoughts on this were in the context of 3/Y. That is different from next gen platform / robotaxi. Those are new S curves. I think it has a significant systemic impact. The narrative has shifted. He is no longer widely perceived as heroic iron man. That translates...
  15. Orbit

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I’ve expanded on my perspective multiple times, i suggest reading those comments. Basically I was making a narrow point about the growth rate of 3/Y sales in the medium term. It is in the context of long term 50% compound growth.
  16. Orbit

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I was responding to someone who asked why I think 3/Y growth rates are slowing. As I said earlier, I think that new S curves are needed to sustain 50% annual growth.
  17. Orbit

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    By analogy, S/X demand has more or less plateaued. 3/Y are a lower price point, and therefore in a mature market they will have significantly higher annual sales, but eventually will also plateau. Again I’d be very surprised if Tesla sell 3.8m 3/Y in 2025. (50% for next 2 years). I think 3/Y...
  18. Orbit

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I agree that EVs are becoming more mainstream as they go to the next phase of the adoption curve. Maybe I could have more clearly specified growth rate. I think 3/Y growth will continue, but that an inflection point has been crossed in the growth rate, and it won’t continue at 50% for 3/Y in...
  19. Orbit

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    3/Y production growth will eventually run out of steam. I think that is starting to happen. Megapack / robotaxi / Optimus can get 50% long term compound growth. These have the possibility of stacking additional S curves on growth. That is, IF Tesla executes very well, which the 50% is highly...
  20. Orbit

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    If I remember correctly, Elon backed off the 50% annual compound growth rate in a reply tweet. Maybe it was backing off 50% revenue growth. I can’t remember.
  21. Orbit

    Torn Between Dual Motor LR and Performance [resolved]

    I'm deciding between the Model 3 performance spec VS the long range spec with the acceleration boost. Does anyone have any real world experience of comparing the G force feeling of acceleration between these two? Specifically how noticeable the acceleration feeling is between the two? From my...
  22. Orbit

    'Tesla shares sink as car deliveries drop'

    I doubt you are taking into account how valuable a fully self driving car could be. What percentage of the world's cars are Teslas? About 0.02%. There are a billion vehicles in the global fleet, with over 500 million in USA and EU alone. Even with annual production of 1 million Teslas, what...
  23. Orbit

    Elon's biggest strengths and weaknesses

    Elon's biggest strengths are: Intelligence. The transformation of deep childhood pain into an incredible work ethic based on a drive to "think about the future and not be sad". First principles thinking. Elon's biggest weakness are: Several standard deviations above the mean in his strengths...
  24. Orbit

    'Tesla shares sink as car deliveries drop'

    You go to the casino, walk to the roulette table, and you place $10K on number 5. Your return will be up to $350K (ie. could be as high as 35x). Don't want to play? Don't you trust the newspaper when they reported that an analyst reported that the casino said that every round, your chips value...
  25. Orbit

    'Tesla shares sink as car deliveries drop'

    Elon's whole point is scarcity. Why would you assume no scarcity on a revolutionary and lucrative product that is difficult to scale up in production, and would be replacing a global fleet of over a billion units? You can't buy a new one for 50k if there is a multi year long waiting list. I...
  26. Orbit

    Bloomberg Model 3 Tracker

    Bloomberg Model 3 tracker is now predicting 3857 per week for the next few weeks. They seem to change and update their numbers quite a bit. You can't really rely on what they are suggesting at any particular time, it's just a guide. Should still meet / exceed guidance for Q3 production.
  27. Orbit

    Elon Musk on The Joe Rogan Experience

    How long ago did he say that?
  28. Orbit

    Bloomberg Model 3 Tracker

    This is a key point I believe. "creates a situation where Tesla can't win". Tesla "winning" is not necessarily in the interests of many stake holders, at least not within the time scale they are working on. Lots of people win when there is confusion and widespread FUD. Likewise, for many of us...
  29. Orbit

    Bloomberg Model 3 Tracker

    Tesla is on track for a production record this quarter but slightly behind ambitious Model 3 goal Electrek puts the number of M3 produced in Q3 at quite a bit lower than the Bloomberg tracker does.
  30. Orbit

    Bloomberg Model 3 Tracker

    So they might actually beat guidance on M3 production. Likely to beat it even. Strange feeling.... After all the M3 misses it somehow felt like they would obviously miss again, at least to me.
  31. Orbit

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    While I could just be forgetful... I don't recall ever seeing such a qualifier from TT007 before. Just likely? Not guaranteed? :O
  32. Orbit

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Maybe you can open an account with a US broker and transfer them over.
  33. Orbit

    Accuracy of emotions as stock price counter indicator

    The Hog Negativity index sounds very useful, props to the creator. Do any HNI scholars (or even the creator) publish official updates on where the index is at? Do you have any analysis on how reliable it's past predictions have been? Also, is there a Hog Positivity index to track when sentiment...
  34. Orbit

    When do we see TSLA at $400?

    In many ways I think similar to how you do. But not everyone thinks this way. I don't think present and future TSLA investors are a unified group. They differ vastly in their; 1) understanding of Tesla, including its opportunities and risks 2) risk tolerance 3) investment philosophy 4) whose...
  35. Orbit

    When do we see TSLA at $400?

    While I'd love to see $400 soon, I'm doubtful that it will happen in the near future. This is based at least in part on me today having thought "Another day like Thursday and it'll be at ATH and basically $400. So it could be over $400 in a couple of days." Surely many people are thinking that...
  36. Orbit

    Accuracy of emotions as stock price counter indicator

    Interesting read about Veblen goods there. It linked to things like "Hot hand" fallacy, which I think also definitely plays a role in stock momentum. Just think of the number of "high profile" analysts, who got one big call correct and famously made lots of money, then continuously performed...
  37. Orbit

    Tesla Q2 2018 earnings thread

    Yeah.... well, even then the letter's "about 3 years" refers to initial production of "first cars". Which is very different from a full calendar year of ramped production in 2020, which would require production to be fully ramped up in less than 1.5 years. (17 months to be exact). I thought...
  38. Orbit

    Accuracy of emotions as stock price counter indicator

    Yeah exactly, long term, that is a deep underlying signal. By definition, in order to continue indefinitely, the human world must transition to sustainable energy generation and usage. Whether Tesla plays a role in that or not is irrelevant to that signal's existence. If humans are to survive...
  39. Orbit

    Accuracy of emotions as stock price counter indicator

    Yeah I saw that on his Twitter, it looked surprisingly balanced to me too. I don't know much about the ratio of bulls/bears though. TMC has often been overly bullish, whereas SA for example is often overly bearish. Would be nice if there was a baseline to compare it to. For example, if we knew...
  40. Orbit

    Accuracy of emotions as stock price counter indicator

    Kinda like a Christie's auction where no one has worked out the intrinsic value: "This painting is for sale, and no one is bidding, so it must be some no name horrible artist! Oh wait, now people are bidding, and the price is going crazy, that probably shows it is a Picasso or something similar."
  41. Orbit

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Afterhours $350 on Google finance.
  42. Orbit

    Accuracy of emotions as stock price counter indicator

    Yeah... perhaps one could go to a hypnotherapist and ask to be brainwashed into really believing it? Imagine saying to them: "I want you to hypnotize me into desiring to lose the most money possible by buying TSLA high and selling low for a period of 24 months"!
  43. Orbit

    Accuracy of emotions as stock price counter indicator

    Nicely said. The whole veil of rationality is such a facade, at least for myself, at least much of the time. I think accepting that is a much healthier approach than denying it. For example, when I first read your comment, the share price was around $347.50 I thought "Ok, I'll reply, but first...
  44. Orbit

    Accuracy of emotions as stock price counter indicator

    That could be worth a lot of money.... In theory, if you are consistently mistiming the market, then if could change your "goal" was to purposefully invest money in order to intentionally loose as much as possible... then could your emotions actually cause you "mess up" that goal of losing...
  45. Orbit

    Accuracy of emotions as stock price counter indicator

    Thanks, I checked him out on Twitter. I can definitely see how it would be helpful to keep an eye on, and especially to check if my views are just being largely shaped by current market sentiment. Looks like his graphs track the overall market sentiment. Would be interesting to also have a...
  46. Orbit

    Accuracy of emotions as stock price counter indicator

    Yes, me too. How strong do you think the inverse correlation is?
  47. Orbit

    Accuracy of emotions as stock price counter indicator

    Having followed both TSLA and this board closely for over 3 years, a pattern has really started coming up for me. My sense of heightened "fear/greed" seem to quite accurately counter signal turning points in the stock, especially when the fear/greed is strong enough to make me think "this might...
  48. Orbit

    Tesla Q2 2018 earnings thread

    First post, hi there! Yet he Q2 letter states: The letter seems to contradict how Elon responded to the analyst's question. According to the letter, Shanghai isn't expected to contribute any cars before "the first cars roll off the production line in about three years." Yet the analyst asked...