Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jim0266]

When will we see anything out of Tesla's 'Hardcore' Litigation Team or have they been working silently in the background?

 

[MP3Mike]

Joe Tegtmeyer said in his tweet yesterday that the change-over in cathode material used at Giga Texas was pending using up the existing supply of cathode material (this stuff ain't cheap, apparently...)

If the new formulation is significantly better, wouldn't it be a good idea to just send the unused material to be recycled and made into the better stuff? (Unless that would cause a shortage and line downtime.)

 

[Christine69420]

I assume that they would need permits, to build tunnels under public roads.

It could be that the Boring Company equipment is simply being stockpiled for use elsewhere on site.

There are long standing plans for a tunnel on the easy side near the battery cathode plant, under the river ,linking up to an island on the other side.

They probably also need permits to go under the river, but these might be slightly easier to obtain.

it is fairly safe to assume that one or both of these projects is likely to proceed. if they have already moved the equipment, it is likely that the permits have been filed, perhaps even approved.

Yes it could be that Island tunnel too.

I remember - Joe Tegtmeyer again - made a vid about that Island a while back. If I remember correctly the Island would be a part of the Ecological Paradise planned. But I believe that to be a few years out yet. If a tunnel is planned to the EOL lot it would come much sooner.

 

[Knightshade]

And as for Armco, we all no their value will be worth didly squat in five years with only stranded assets so they don't even come into the equation.

You think oil and natural gas will be such a stranded asset by 2029, when >90% of all existing light vehicles, and a far higher % of all other transport, plus the majority of home space and water heating, will still be running on it, that Saudi Aramco crashes to "didly squat" by then?

 

[SOULPEDL]

Mobileye - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I think EyeQ is their bread-and-butter product.

"More than 27 automobile manufacturers utilize EyeQ for their assisted-driving technologies.[56]"

So 27 new clients for FSD... cool.

 

[Rarity]

Elon held a space with Peter Diamandis. Below is a link to a compressed version. See particularly at ~43:30 when Elon starts talking about the acceleration of AI computing growth.

He notes a 10x 6-month growth rate in AI computing power industry-wide and says that it is the fastest technology acceleration that he has ever seen. Mentions a GW-class compute cluster being built in Kuwait (700,000 A100-equivalent), a 500MW compute cluster, and multiple 100 MW compute clusters. Says he's not clear what you would do with so much computing power because you would run out of training data, although I suspect he has a few ideas...

Compare to Tesla projections of 300,000 A100-equivalent available to the company by EOY 2024 and maybe 60,000 A100-equivalent available to it today.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1742763681174225208

 

[Artful Dodger]

Allright... I take only cash for the bridge in NY that I am planning to sell

I'll take some of that cash: 500 wh/kg has been on the Maxwell roadmap since 2018

Tesla is just executing this plan (for which they paid cash/stock).

 

[Tony73]

Elon Musk, December 31st, 2023: “I stand by my prediction that, if Tesla executes extremely well over the next 5 years, that the long term value could exceed Apple and Aramco combined,”

I wonder if Elon had this in mind. Since the start of 2024 TSLA has lost $32.3B, however AAPL has lost $174.2B in market cap. The rate of decline for Apple is significantly more than for Tesla. And as for Armco, we all no their value will be worth didly squat in five years with only stranded assets so they don't even come into the equation.

Saudi Arabia’s oil is some of the cheapest to extract on the planet. It will be a very, very long time before those assets are stranded.

 

[Artful Dodger]

If the new formulation is significantly better, wouldn't it be a good idea to just send the unused material to be recycled and made into the better stuff? (Unless that would cause a shortage and line downtime.)

I expect this plan has been in place for at least 18 months. Eventually, all batteries will be recycled...

 

[Orbit]

Ding ding ding ding ding, we have a winner folks!

Maybe you don't have the data, but this is not something recent.

Why are you speaking at me like that?
Ding ding ding?

I stand by my belief that even though there has been positive and negative stories about him for well over a decade, the ratio of negative to positive stories about him has increased in the last 5 years.

Elon himself has commented on the increased negative press he believes he is now exposed to. Even the US president shunned him and said he should be looked into.

Does Elon apparently having similar beliefs to me on this topic also make him a “Ding ding ding winner”?
“Looks folks it’s the winner Elon”?


Unless you have objective data in evidence regarding the positive /negative media coverage of him over time, your opinion that there hasn’t been a change in the ratio of negative stories is just an opinion.


Either way, negative actions by him such as the pedo guy comments, made global news, and has turned many middle of the road people off Tesla.

Him saying “funding secured” when it wasn’t, from memory the fallout also made global news.

Descriptions of him as going into “demon mode” by people of his inner circle like Grimes who he has a kid with, and his own regret at buying Twitter and acknowledgment he dramatically overpaid.

I think these are all contributing reasons why he has fallen off the pedestal as an aspirational hero in the eyes of millions of people.

As Walter Isaacson said, it’s a package deal.
You get the bad with the good.

He isn’t a “normal chill dude”.

He even got asked on an earnings call about the effect of the increased negative media attention on him. He said it doesn’t make any difference to Tesla because they sell all the cars they can make. However that backlog has cleared and Tesla has then used demand levers to push sales, referrals, discounts etc.

I’m very confident that the change in perception of Elon in the eyes of millions people, has resulted in a material negative impact on the bottom line.

That might be overshadowed by his other actions in recent years causing a positive impact, very likely even. Still, it has an impact.

 

[ChiefRollo]

Why are you speaking at me like that?
Ding ding ding?

I stand by my belief that even though there has been positive and negative stories about him for well over a decade, the ratio of negative to positive stories about him has increased in the last 5 years.

Elon himself has commented on the increased negative press he believes he is now exposed to. Even the US president shunned him and said he should be looked into.

Does Elon apparently having similar beliefs to me on this topic also make him a “Ding ding ding winner”?
“Looks folks it’s the winner Elon”?


Unless you have objective data in evidence regarding the positive /negative media coverage of him over time, your opinion that there hasn’t been a change in the ratio of negative stories is just an opinion.


Either way, negative actions by him such as the pedo guy comments, made global news, and has turned many middle of the road people off Tesla.

Him saying “funding secured” when it wasn’t, from memory the fallout also made global news.

Descriptions of him as going into “demon mode” by people of his inner circle like Grimes who he has a kid with, and his own regret at buying Twitter and acknowledgment he dramatically overpaid.

I think these are all contributing reasons why he has fallen off the pedestal as an aspirational hero in the eyes of millions of people.

As Walter Isaacson said, it’s a package deal.
You get the bad with the good.

He isn’t a “normal chill dude”.

He even got asked on an earnings call about the effect of the increased negative media attention on him. He said it doesn’t make any difference to Tesla because they sell all the cars they can make. However that backlog has cleared and Tesla has then used demand levers to push sales, referrals, discounts etc.

I’m very confident that the change in perception of Elon in the eyes of millions people, has resulted in a material negative impact on the bottom line.

That might be overshadowed by his other actions in recent years causing a positive impact, very likely even. Still, it has an impact.

I thought his SNL show was revealing and helpful to his cause.

 

[insaneoctane]

After hours OT:

Car and Driver's 0-to-150-to-0 Speed Test 2023​

Spoiler: Spoiler

They didn't run the MS Plaid with the other vehicles because it got a nail in the tire.
At a later date, at a different location, they ran the MS Plaid and Lucid Air Sapphire. They blew away all the vehicles in the article (by 3+ seconds). Lucid outperforming the Plaid. The Sapphire is 2.5x the price of the Plaid at $250K. All of this was considered "unofficial" due to different location. "Very unofficially, the Sapphire's time of 15.5 seconds beat the Plaid's 16.2-second time"

 

[Orbit]

I thought his SNL show was revealing and helpful to his cause.

I think so too, especially the Asperger’s bit.

 

[AndrewZ]

"More than 27 automobile manufacturers utilize EyeQ for their assisted-driving technologies.[56]"

So 27 new clients for FSD... cool.

Why would a build in inventory shift customers to FSD?

To put some numbers around this, Mobileye sells its systems for around $50 each — yes fifty, five zero, and currently pulls around $500million per quarter in revenue — supplanting this at the same level would likely not be material to a company pulling $20billion+ per quarter and with goals to 5-10x vehicle sales from current.

Something just struck me as interesting around this topic, I was leafing through some old articles earlier and found this quote about Mobileye and Tesla parting ways:

”This was expected and will not have any material effect on our plans," Tesla CEO Elon Musk said in a blog post later Tuesday. "Mobileye's ability to evolve its technology is unfortunately negatively affected by having to support hundreds of models from legacy auto companies, resulting in a very high engineering drag coefficient. Tesla is laser-focused on achieving full self-driving capability on one integrated platform with an order of magnitude greater safety than the average manually driven car."

So it seems interesting that Elon is now talking about going down the same path that was part of the stated reason for this partnership ending way back when. Of course Tesla wouldn’t go right to supporting hundreds of legacy models, but it would seem to be a divergence and reversion.

 

[ggies07]

The highlight of this article for me is Elon's response in the embedded message.

Elon Musk responds to Tesla-BYD 2023 Q4 production comparison

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has responded to the comparisons being drawn by various media outlets regarding his company and high-powered Chinese rival BYD.

www.teslarati.com

No they're not. Tesla is an energy company, batteries at the heart of everything....that will even run those bots I'm sure Drew looooves hearing that....plus, AI/robotics have nothing to do with the mission statement of the company.

 

[ChiefRollo]

I think so too, especially the Asperger’s bit.

Agreed!

 

[elasalle]

Posted not because he is ready to buy more stocks .... but a good refresher, mind set ...

 

[ChiefRollo]

I think so too, especially the Asperger’s bit.

I’ve found him to be more relatable since. Being a centrist also complicates matters, having naysayers from both sides.

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1743078978251039064

damn, I got rid of my Smart things and got Google Nest instead

 

[ggies07]

You think oil and natural gas will be such a stranded asset by 2029, when >90% of all existing light vehicles, and a far higher % of all other transport, plus the majority of home space and water heating, will still be running on it, that Saudi Aramco crashes to "didly squat" by then?

29? No. 30 and beyond? YES. If you haven't checked out RMI's research on their "peaking" series, you should.

PEAKING: THE SERIES - RMI

In country after country and sector after sector, fossil fuel demand has peaked and now faces a future of decline.

rmi.org