Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Word of Mouth, hands-on in the parking lot: that's how the word gets out about Cybertruck (notice the crowd of passers-by stopping to gawk)

F-250 TRUCK Owner REACTS to Cybertruck | DennisCW

 

[Artful Dodger]

AI/robotics have nothing to do with the mission statement of the company.

Wrong, think again! The Mission is to ACCELERATE the transition to sustainable energy. A single bot doing the work of 6 laborers is a force MULTIPLIER. When 3 humans supervise 30 Teslabots to install a Megapack site in a few days, things speed up:

The Tesla mission statement is “to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy.”​

 

[growler23]

No they're not. Tesla is an energy company, batteries at the heart of everything....that will even run those bots I'm sure Drew looooves hearing that....plus, AI/robotics have nothing to do with the mission statement of the company.

I've thought a lot about that, but I now think those things do actually go along with the mission.
What was earth lacking when Tesla started?

• Enough renewables, so Tesla makes batteries (in pack form) to make storage backed renewable generation cheaper.
• An auto market that could be connected to that renewable grid, so Tesla makes cars that can be connected, as well as the connectors (Superchargers) for said grid.

So that's great, problem solved, right? But here's the thing: even though Tesla has scaled up faster than any manufacturing company in history, the climate tsunami response needs way more, way faster. And even more again, if we are to hold on to our nice toys, our social cohesion, our society overall through this very present worsening crisis.
We are already seeing labor shortages in many regions and fields... and that is before considering the massive army of both skilled and unskilled labor that we will need to finish the worldwide charging network, millions or billions of home chargers, significant grid resilience, transmission, and control hardware upgrades ... all while the most likely sources of that labor have stable or declining populations (much to Elon's oft stated chagrin).
So Tesla launches two solutions: first, reduce the amount of labor needed to transition the auto fleet (and all the needed chargers) by cutting the fleet by 90%. FSD leading to Robotaxi. Which is, of course, AI.
The second solution, done in parallel: attack the problem of labor itself. Bots. We cannot scale solutions in time if we can't find enough humans to scale them (or more likely can't find the political and financial will to hire enough of them, or the foresight to have educated and trained enough of them, dammit).
So AI is really pushing on two fronts: reducing the scale of the automotive portion of the problem with FSD, and training bots to do labor that will either directly help the Transition or perhaps free up humans to work on the Transition.
Anyway, can't prove that is Tesla's thinking, but makes sense to me.

--Growler out

 

[willow_hiller]

I don't know enough about the production lines to understand exactly what is driving these changes, but probably worth flagging. Two new colors (Ultra Red and Stealth Grey), as well as slightly lower ranges for the Model Y LR and Performance.

Has the paint line at Fremont been upgraded to offer the new Austin colors? Or is Austin building these? And could the lower ranges indicate changes in battery format/chemistry?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1743087865020518841

 

[Drumheller]

It's being reported that the range decreases are due to updated EPA testing procedures / estimates. Not hardware changes.

 

[Knightshade]

29? No. 30 and beyond? YES. If you haven't checked out RMI's research on their "peaking" series, you should.

PEAKING: THE SERIES - RMI

In country after country and sector after sector, fossil fuel demand has peaked and now faces a future of decline.

rmi.org

By 2030 their curve only shows a drop-off of around 10-15% in oil demand from today (hard to be precise as the graph labeling isn't precise.)

As others have pointed out, Saudis oil is among the easiest/cheapest to get- they'll be perhaps the last to find such assets stranded

The majority of the worlds vehicle fleet will keep needing oil long past 2030- there's ~1.5 billion with a B light vehicles to replace plus ships, aircraft, trucks, etc on top of the myriad industrial uses for oil that aren't going away in that timeframe... plus their other big asset is natural gas which I've not seen any huge move to replace for heating that's likely to cause a big change by 2030 either..... and thus whoever can still supply the easiest and cheapest oil and gas will have plenty of folks to supply it for a good while yet. It's the folks barely extracting/processing it profitably today that'll be the first to start dropping off by 2030.

It's being reported that the range decreases are due to updated EPA testing procedures / estimates. Not hardware changes.

If that's the case everyone should be ready for the TESLA ADMITS IT WAS LYING ABOUT RANGE stories from the usual suspects soon.

 

[ggies07]

Wrong, think again! The Mission is to ACCELERATE the transition to sustainable energy. A single bot doing the work of 6 laborers is a force MULTIPLIER. When 3 humans supervise 30 Teslabots to install a Megapack site in a few days, things speed up:

The Tesla mission statement is “to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy.”​

I see, I see. So EVs and solar are not good enough now, it's bots. Bots that can't even move that fast right now. I understand your idea, but you're telling me it takes 33 humans right now to install a Megapack?

 

[ggies07]

I've thought a lot about that, but I now think those things do actually go along with the mission.
What was earth lacking when Tesla started?

• Enough renewables, so Tesla makes batteries (in pack form) to make storage backed renewable generation cheaper.
• An auto market that could be connected to that renewable grid, so Tesla makes cars that can be connected, as well as the connectors (Superchargers) for said grid.

So that's great, problem solved, right? But here's the thing: even though Tesla has scaled up faster than any manufacturing company in history, the climate tsunami response needs way more, way faster. And even more again, if we are to hold on to our nice toys, our social cohesion, our society overall through this very present worsening crisis.
We are already seeing labor shortages in many regions and fields... and that is before considering the massive army of both skilled and unskilled labor that we will need to finish the worldwide charging network, millions or billions of home chargers, significant grid resilience, transmission, and control hardware upgrades ... all while the most likely sources of that labor have stable or declining populations (much to Elon's oft stated chagrin).
So Tesla launches two solutions: first, reduce the amount of labor needed to transition the auto fleet (and all the needed chargers) by cutting the fleet by 90%. FSD leading to Robotaxi. Which is, of course, AI.
The second solution, done in parallel: attack the problem of labor itself. Bots. We cannot scale solutions in time if we can't find enough humans to scale them (or more likely can't find the political and financial will to hire enough of them, or the foresight to have educated and trained enough of them, dammit).
So AI is really pushing on two fronts: reducing the scale of the automotive portion of the problem with FSD, and training bots to do labor that will either directly help the Transition or perhaps free up humans to work on the Transition.
Anyway, can't prove that is Tesla's thinking, but makes sense to me.

--Growler out

And where does Tesla get the data from this advanced FSD....that is training the bots? From cars, that use batteries, that used advanced chemistry to create better energy density....it's.all.about.energy.

 

[2daMoon]

Why are you speaking at me like that?
Ding ding ding?

I stand by my belief that even though there has been positive and negative stories about him for well over a decade, the ratio of negative to positive stories about him has increased in the last 5 years.

Elon himself has commented on the increased negative press he believes he is now exposed to. Even the US president shunned him and said he should be looked into.

Does Elon apparently having similar beliefs to me on this topic also make him a “Ding ding ding winner”?
“Looks folks it’s the winner Elon”?


Unless you have objective data in evidence regarding the positive /negative media coverage of him over time, your opinion that there hasn’t been a change in the ratio of negative stories is just an opinion.


Either way, negative actions by him such as the pedo guy comments, made global news, and has turned many middle of the road people off Tesla.

Him saying “funding secured” when it wasn’t, from memory the fallout also made global news.

Descriptions of him as going into “demon mode” by people of his inner circle like Grimes who he has a kid with, and his own regret at buying Twitter and acknowledgment he dramatically overpaid.

I think these are all contributing reasons why he has fallen off the pedestal as an aspirational hero in the eyes of millions of people.

As Walter Isaacson said, it’s a package deal.
You get the bad with the good.

He isn’t a “normal chill dude”.

He even got asked on an earnings call about the effect of the increased negative media attention on him. He said it doesn’t make any difference to Tesla because they sell all the cars they can make. However that backlog has cleared and Tesla has then used demand levers to push sales, referrals, discounts etc.

I’m very confident that the change in perception of Elon in the eyes of millions people, has resulted in a material negative impact on the bottom line.

That might be overshadowed by his other actions in recent years causing a positive impact, very likely even. Still, it has an impact.

"Ding Ding Ding" is the bell sounding for a winner. I agree with you. Then, I shared some background. Here's a little more to consider.

For every bad thing people read or see in the popular media, there are ten or a hundred or a thousand other things Elon does that are making the world better.

You don't see much of that in the popular media, so, if a person succumbs to the onslaught of what they see and hear most often, this will form their knowledge and, support their opinion of things. It is a grossly unbalanced opinion, based on a story crafted to elicit a response. Hopefully one that leads to the story being repeated, or, a new story being made. All for the clicks, and, sometimes an agenda to accomplish.

If, instead, a person ignores and doesn't follow any of that, never chooses to watch the news, is keenly aware of how each source is a for-profit business and will have an agenda and can be influenced, that is half the battle. Just nodding and agreeing that one knows this won't do it. This is an active process to build one's mental filters.

It doesn't make sense to me how folks keep going back to the trough, filling their head with spoon-fed lies and subtle coercion. It must be something chemical. The rush the emotions provide. Whatever it is, the techniques for latching onto a brain with media has been well designed, documented, studied, and has decades of application to work out the bugs. They are good at it, and for the most part shouldn't be blindly trusted.

As for Elon, I'll hear about those things in the media, and I'll balance it with the charitable contributions he's made, responses to natural and man-made disasters, helping small schools, indigenous people, oppressed countries, and I'll enjoy making the effort to find the other side of the story.

With context comes the realization of the crafted, outlandish, sensationalism that goes into designing these hit pieces.

Where the hell is Walter Cronkite when you need him?

Back in the day there were truly excellent news-folk who prided themselves on offering all sides of a story with an empirical goal of doing so without bias, then, let the viewer make up their mind for themselves. But, this doesn't sell soap. (via advertising)

Nostalgia just ain't what it used to be.

People could be more selective about what they let go into their brain.

 

[Krugerrand]

Him saying “funding secured” when it wasn’t, from memory the fallout also made global news.

I’m only going to address this piece of drivel as it’s directly on topic to the investor thread.

Funding absolutely WAS secured. You not knowing that and continuing to pass along a made up bs lie means YOU are part of the problem that Elon has to face every day.

So consider that you’re wrong on this point. How many other points are you wrong about? Hint: more than this one.

 

[2daMoon]

I assume that they would need permits, to build tunnels under public roads.

It could be that the Boring Company equipment is simply being stockpiled for use elsewhere on site.

There are long standing plans for a tunnel on the easy side near the battery cathode plant, under the river ,linking up to an island on the other side.

They probably also need permits to go under the river, but these might be slightly easier to obtain.

it is fairly safe to assume that one or both of these projects is likely to proceed. if they have already moved the equipment, it is likely that the permits have been filed, perhaps even approved.

They built two tunnels under the road that runs between Boring Co and SpaceX in nearby Bastrop County. I expect they got it figured out.

 

[2daMoon]

No they're not. Tesla is an energy company, batteries at the heart of everything....that will even run those bots I'm sure Drew looooves hearing that....plus, AI/robotics have nothing to do with the mission statement of the company.

What if they do, and you just don't realize it yet?

 

[TSLA Pilot]

You let me know when they do that and then I’ll answer the question. Not playing the hypothetical game with you.

When the S/X adopt the 48-volt architecture and four wheel steering/steer-by-wire, RHD S/X will likely follow in short order . . .

 

[MP3Mike]

When the S/X adopt the 48-volt architecture and four wheel steering/steer-by-wire, RHD S/X will likely follow in short order . . .

I don't think that will happen for at least another 4 years... It would require a complete redesign. (Coming directly from Tesla execs, they pretty much said only new vehicles will get the 48v system.)

 

[Krugerrand]

When the S/X adopt the 48-volt architecture and four wheel steering/steer-by-wire, RHD S/X will likely follow in short order . . .

If they adopt -

 

[2daMoon]

I see, I see. So EVs and solar are not good enough now, it's bots. Bots that can't even move that fast right now. I understand your idea, but you're telling me it takes 33 humans right now to install a Megapack?

This is exactly why Elon indicated AI and Bots.

The fact that they aren't ready is the reason they need Tesla's efforts focused now in order to get to the point of being good enough.

With manufacturing of cars, perfecting the factory has been pretty much accomplished. All that needs doing is factory duplication and continuous improvement of the factories using the Agile tools they have honed to a fine edge. This, they know how to do good enough.

Now, imagine taking the existing knowledge about making and running a factory and apply that to manufacturing and training bots on a massive scale. Same with Megapacks, and all the other energy products.

All Tesla products will be greatly improved through the application of AI and humanoid robots. Wait and see.

Don't bet against Elon. He's pretty good at what he does.

 

[Orbit]

I’m only going to address this piece of drivel as it’s directly on topic to the investor thread.

Funding absolutely WAS secured. You not knowing that and continuing to pass along a made up bs lie means YOU are part of the problem that Elon has to face every day.

So consider that you’re wrong on this point. How many other points are you wrong about? Hint: more than this one.

I’m wrong on many other points. As per my previous message, I’m human, I make mistakes. If someone points them out I try to have the humility to acknowledge them and learn.

But I’m not wrong on this one.

Secure
verb
past tense: secured; past participle: secured
1. fix or attach (something) firmly so that it cannot be moved or lost.


A handshake deal, which is all Elon had from the Saudi’s, is not “secure”. Likewise with theoretical SpaceX stock liquidation.

Twitter sale contract was “secure”.


But if I’m spreading misinformation, maybe you should take it up with Elon’s own attorney, Alex Spiro, who himself said that Musk's "funding secured" tweet was "technically inaccurate".

Are you going to defend Elon against his own lawyer?

The announcement was inappropriately done, it was messy.

Elon has repeatedly said that various companies of his could go bankrupt. While it hasn’t happened to any of them, there were a bunch of close calls. There is real downside potential to his risk taking, even if it isn’t often realized.

With that completely inappropriate tweet he made a mistake and it cost him and Tesla.

The bad comes with the good with him, it’s a package deal. From a long term TSLA investor perspective the track record has been incredible so far.

 

[2daMoon]

And where does Tesla get the data from this advanced FSD....that is training the bots? From cars, that use batteries, that used advanced chemistry to create better energy density....it's.all.about.energy.

No, it is all about technology, and manufacturing.

Cars, batteries (energy), robots (FSD, Robotaxis, Optimus), etc. are the result of the applied science used to design the products and the factories that build them.

To accelerate the transition Tesla must make a variety of the necessary things with high quality, at a faster pace, and more efficiently.

Is there a faster way to accomplish this than using AI and Bots to further supplement the existing teams?

 

[Tony73]

I’m only going to address this piece of drivel as it’s directly on topic to the investor thread.

Funding absolutely WAS secured. You not knowing that and continuing to pass along a made up bs lie means YOU are part of the problem that Elon has to face every day.

So consider that you’re wrong on this point. How many other points are you wrong about? Hint: more than this one.

SEC.gov | Elon Musk Settles SEC Fraud Charges; Tesla Charged With and Resolves Securities Law Charge

www.sec.gov

And yet Musk and Tesla settled with SEC and agreed to pay a $40 million fine. He also stepped down as chairman. In the SEC’s opinion which is all that counts at the end of the day, funding was definitely NOT secured.
FACT: Musk never produced signed, documentary evidence of such funding. Not even a term sheet.

 

[2daMoon]

And yet Musk and Tesla settled with SEC and agreed to pay a $40 million due. He also stepped down as chairman. In the SEC’s opinion which is all that counts at the end of the day, funding was definitely NOT secured.
FACT: Musk never produced signed, documentary evidence of such funding. Not even a term sheet.

If you were on a jury, I expect you would find guilty the person who was arrested for doing something they didn't want to do because someone else was holding a knife to their child's throat and told them to do it, or else.

Should you have actually followed the story you would know that the SEC held a knife to Tesla's metaphorical throat to coerce Elon to sign an agreement he did not actually agree with.

Left with the choice of holding to one's principles and risking a company that employed many people, as well as, breaking the trust of the shareholders who put their support behind him, he chose the lesser of two evils and went against his principles, signing under duress, for the greater goal of achieving the mission.

I thank him for that, and I despise the sort of people who employ such tactics. Those sort of people are second-cousins to those who parrot canned news without offering the back story for context. Like you have done.