Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MP3Mike]

When Drew was taking (on Munro video I think) about cells, pack size, range extender he said “Our goal is to achieve 500 miles of range”

Now to the why I think it might not have include the range extender. Currently the Dual Motor Cybertruck is said to have a 123 kWh pack and rated at 340 miles with H/T tires (320 with A/T ones), if we take the leak/rumor from Joe as true and to the most optimistic improvement of 20%, this becomes 408 miles and 147.6 kWh

I'm not buying this. I think it was pretty clear that they were talking about hitting 500 miles of range with the range extender:

In that they even said "we can show you" when asked what it looks like, which makes me think they have at least a prototype of it.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I just thought of another reason to delay ER to the 24th. Better data to forecast full year guidance. They may have time to tweak pricing looking at the signals, then ask DOJO for the outcome (wouldn't that be nice!).

Seriously, how on earth can they predict production in 2024? I'm still amazed they met '23 guidance by the hair of their chins.

This definitely puts shade on that bogus 2.2M forecast. No way they'd miss out on Jan '24 data for a more complete Analysis. Knowing Elon, he'll say 2.5M and they'll just have to figure out details. Maybe some unboxed come into play 2H '24. FM

 

[Tony73]

I just thought of another reason to delay ER to the 24th. Better data to forecast full year guidance. They may have time to tweak pricing looking at the signals, then ask DOJO for the outcome (wouldn't that be nice!).

Seriously, how on earth can they predict production in 2024? I'm still amazed they met '23 guidance by the hair of their chins.

This definitely puts shade on that bogus 2.2M forecast. No way they'd miss out on Jan '24 data for a more complete Analysis. Knowing Elon, he'll say 2.5M and they'll just have to figure out details. Maybe some unboxed come into play 2H '24. FM

Tesla’s history of meeting guidance is pretty impressive considering how new all this is.
That said, I for one would be totally fine with them skipping annual guidance this year.

 

[jerry33]

I'm not buying this. I think it was pretty clear that they were talking about hitting 500 miles of range with the range extender:

In that they even said "we can show you" when asked what it looks like, which makes me think they have at least a prototype of it.

A $500 non-refundable deposit pretty much says they are going to produce it.

 

[SmokyPeat]

It was most likely a typo. Regardless, he definately doesn't think that now seeing as he clarified it is Manganese multiple times six hours before your post.

Oh, good. I don't waste my time on Twitter (other than the occasional link posted here), so I definitely didn't see his corrections.

 

[Maarten]

Found this table, showing a lot of not-competition in China, as most are in a quite different price/quality segment.
However, from this table one can see that there are many cheap Chinese EV models sold in the Chinese market, where Tesla is premium.
On another note: likely @Krugerrand is nodding approvingly at two model names.

 

[Orbit]

Thank you for your thoughts. My quick reaction is below:

Thank you for sharing.

My thoughts on this were in the context of 3/Y.
That is different from next gen platform / robotaxi. Those are new S curves.

1. I believe there exists a segment of buyers that have been turned off by Elon’s comment and actions over the years. As there are two sides to every coin, I believe there are some out there appreciating his authenticity even at the expense of dollars. The question is how large are these segments and the net impact on Tesla vehicle adoption. At worst I see a net negative that I would group with the “late EV adopters” segment…which leads to my next thought.

I think it has a significant systemic impact.
The narrative has shifted.
He is no longer widely perceived as heroic iron man.

That translates into systemic clickbait like “All Teslas recalled for safety problem with driver assistance.” When it’s just an over the air software update to make users be more attentive.

Maybe it’s also because Tesla is now the 800 pound gorilla in the room, maybe it was inevitable.

2. To all adoption curves, the late adopters segment commands its place. Its size and timing impact have always been a point of contention. What in your mind has changed recently regarding this segment?

I think high interest rates are having a very significant impact on what is still a quite expensive car in the 3/Y. It does increase total cost of ownership by a lot.

A significant percentage of Americans live paycheck to paycheck.

3. As time has become tougher for the mass and the need to stretch the $ becomes more and more top of mind, those who still desire to purchase a new vehicle I believe are acting with a greater sense of practicality. Total cost of ownership [buying (how much to overpay for the product to cover the dealership value add…if any), using (cost of gas vs. electricity…with and w/out home solar), proactive maintenance (mileage driven oil changes and tune-ups), reactive maintenance (sudden death of engine and components of a complex set-up)] vs. total ownership experience (emission, noise, engine rattles, dealerships interactions, needs to upgrade for the latest features, weekly gas station visits) will be more of a thing than ever.

I think you are underestimating the irrationality of a significant portion of the population.
Up until recently there were $10k+ of total subsides for a M3, bringing the price down to the high 20’s.
Even among Tesla buyers, sometimes a new one is cheaper than a used one. The market is far from perfectly efficient.

Most people don’t do a realistic total cost of ownership calculation.

I think the lower cost next gen platform “Model 2” will be needed for growth to continue at a high rate.

Tesla are doing a great job with cost reduction, even Highland is apparently cheaper to produce.
But a cheaper platform will bring cost down and expand market share.

I simply like to know a thing or two from personal experience about the companies I invest in…hence Tesla product ownership…and just want to bounce my thoughts off of folks in this forum.

That’s what the forum is here for.

 

[heltok]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1742755115625328828

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Am I the only one that thinks Tesla shot itself in the foot by underestimating how long it would take to get 4680s to ramp? They clearly stopped ramping 2170s since they thought 4680s was the future. 4680s probably are but like many other Tesla projects this one is taking longer than expected.

The problem of course being that batteries are a limiting resource for expanding production. Specifically the gen 3 model(s). With more batteries ready in 2023-24 they should have the "$25.000" model ready for ramp up production by now. Never mind real production of the Semi. Now they still haven't even built the factories to manufacture either.

It was a huge mistake to, if not bet the farm then at least a harvest season or two, on a product that was hardly a prototype at the time.

Like many others I believe Tesla will fall well behind the 50% curve this year and will most likely never be able to expand fast enough again to catch up. Doesn't mean it won't grow fast but not to anywhere near 20 million in 2030. Maybe in 2035.

Good thing Tesla Energy is growing so fast.

 

[Drumheller]

Hey kids, are you ready for some healthy speculation? If so, please grab your tinfoil hat and buckle up

I have two conflicting theories on Cybertruck battery pack and 4680 development that the last bit of info from Joe helped makes sense

I took a break from X/Reddit over the holidays so there might be more relevant info that I missed

1 - Cybertruck will achieve 500 miles of range WITHOUT the range extender or number of cells increase:

When Drew was taking (on Munro video I think) about cells, pack size, range extender he said “Our goal is to achieve 500 miles of range”

Now to the why I think it might not have include the range extender. Currently the Dual Motor Cybertruck is said to have a 123 kWh pack and rated at 340 miles with H/T tires (320 with A/T ones), if we take the leak/rumor from Joe as true and to the most optimistic improvement of 20%, this becomes 408 miles and 147.6 kWh

Now, as far as we know, 4680s still don’t use Tesla Silicon, Drew also confirmed (somewhere) that there was no chemistry changes between 4680 gen 1 and gen 2

A heavy loading of Silicon, which Tesla hopes to achieve by using a Polymer binding to avoid the possible reduction of cycle life, can easily increase energy density by another 20%, bringing it to 177 kWh and 490 miles of range

Now, another data point to cross check the above, at Battery Day, the energy density of a 2170 Model 3/Y cell was around 270 Wh/kg. 4680s Gen 1 were at 244 Wh/kg and Gen 2 at 267 Wh/kg

With the new cells changes plus addition of Tesla Silicon, this might become 385 Wh/kg

From Battery Day slides, the range increase ignoring vehicle integration was predicted as 40%, meaning that the energy density would go from 270 Wh/kg to 378 Wh/kg, pretty close

So my overall theory is that the Range Extender won’t exist, it’s just a place holder to make people happy without disclosing that a more energy dense battery is coming and those who order/ordered the extender will get the battery pack replaced by one with Gen 3 or Gen 4 4680s (maybe 5?). 2024 seems too soon for that, but who knows

Now to the second theory

2 - Currently shipped Cybertrucks have the Gen 1 4680s

This would explain the poor charging curve, would mean that Texas indeed had line 1 producing Gen 1 cells or that they stockpiled a lot from Kato, which would make sense since it doesn’t seem to me many 4680 Model Y in the wild

Now the question becomes, is the pack really 123 kWh but more cells than we predicted? The pack configuration that other and I calculated fitted perfectly with 123 kWh, so that is going to be different

If the pack has the number of cells that we predicted with Gen 2 cells, it means it has less than 123 kWh, it would be closer to 112 kWh. If it has 123 kWh, this means that with Gen 2 the energy would have a nice boost

This would be weird and a blow to early adopters, who are paying a lot more for a significantly worse product, so I rate it as unlikely, but worth discussing

Cheers

Thank you! This thread saw more of this type of post years ago when Tesla was smaller and still in the very early stages. I always enjoy reading them and considering the possibilities. We know many won't end up being the reality that occurs but some do.

The cybertruck is the first time I've been disappointed with Tesla's release as compared to the reveal. It's great in many ways but the 500+ mile range drop to 320 at release was a huge miss, regardless of the rationalizations. I hope what you have theorized is close to the reality that occurs and we do see a 500 mile EPA rated range released in the future.

 

[2daMoon]

Am I the only one that thinks Tesla shot itself in the foot

Yes. You are.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

Yes. You are.

On the contrary he's found himself in bear country.

 

[aronth5]

By analogy, S/X demand has more or less plateaued.

Maybe but the X is a very good value now. Not long after the Model X was released, with every option the price was over $150k. That was before FSD was increased in price. Now you can get an X for $92k including FSD at $12,000. I will seriously consider the X the next time I trade in my Y.

 

[2daMoon]

Thank you! This thread saw more of this type of post years ago when Tesla was smaller and still in the very early stages. I always enjoy reading them and considering the possibilities. We know many won't end up being the reality that occurs but some do.

The cybertruck is the first time I've been disappointed with Tesla's release as compared to the reveal. It's great in many ways but the 500+ mile range drop to 320 at release was a huge miss, regardless of the rationalizations. I hope what you have theorized is close to the reality that occurs and we do see a 500 mile EPA rated range released in the future.

But, max range was reduced for valid reasons. Tesla should not build a mass-production vehicle targeting the largest US vehicle segment with range that is statistically required by less than 5% of the buyers.

To the second point, consider the range gains other Tesla models have seen over time after initial release. I think that there is no reason Tesla cannot eventually make the CT with a 500 mile variant that doesn't impede upon bed space.

CT has only just now begun deliveries. Give it six months or a year. Consider how most people waiting for their reservation to come up (who don't take the Founders offer) will have a much better chance of seeing quite a bit more range and other improvements over the release version.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Am I the only one that thinks Tesla shot itself in the foot by underestimating how long it would take to get 4680s to ramp? They clearly stopped ramping 2170s since they thought 4680s was the future. 4680s probably are but like many other Tesla projects this one is taking longer than expected.

The problem of course being that batteries are a limiting resource for expanding production. Specifically the gen 3 model(s). With more batteries ready in 2023-24 they should have the "$25.000" model ready for ramp up production by now. Never mind real production of the Semi. Now they still haven't even built the factories to manufacture either.

It was a huge mistake to, if not bet the farm then at least a harvest season or two, on a product that was hardly a prototype at the time.

Like many others I believe Tesla will fall well behind the 50% curve this year and will most likely never be able to expand fast enough again to catch up. Doesn't mean it won't grow fast but not to anywhere near 20 million in 2030. Maybe in 2035.

Good thing Tesla Energy is growing so fast.

I really hope Tesla has some plans in the works for domestically produced LFP cells and packs. There were rumors a while back about a partnership with Gotion. Gotion is now producing home energy storage packs in the US. I assume LFP, but not sure if they are importing the cells or manufacturing them here.

Gotion rolls out first battery packs from its Fremont facility in US -

etn-news.cdn.ampproject.org

 

[jerry33]

Am I the only one that thinks Tesla shot itself in the foot by underestimating how long it would take to get 4680s to ramp? They clearly stopped ramping 2170s since they thought 4680s was the future. 4680s probably are but like many other Tesla projects this one is taking longer than expected.

The problem of course being that batteries are a limiting resource for expanding production. Specifically the gen 3 model(s). With more batteries ready in 2023-24 they should have the "$25.000" model ready for ramp up production by now. Never mind real production of the Semi. Now they still haven't even built the factories to manufacture either.

It was a huge mistake to, if not bet the farm then at least a harvest season or two, on a product that was hardly a prototype at the time.

Like many others I believe Tesla will fall well behind the 50% curve this year and will most likely never be able to expand fast enough again to catch up. Doesn't mean it won't grow fast but not to anywhere near 20 million in 2030. Maybe in 2035.

Good thing Tesla Energy is growing so fast.

I think in the original presentation they said six years. It hasn't been six years yet.

 

[Captkerosene]

Tesla’s history of meeting guidance is pretty impressive considering how new all this is.
That said, I for one would be totally fine with them skipping annual guidance this year.

I'd like to see them take the Berkshire/Buffett approach. No guidance and no quarterly calls. Instead, give investors what they need at the Annual Meeting to evaluate the company's long term value. It does us no good to play the Wall Street numbers game. Short-Termism is the enemy of good management and good investing. (It worked pretty well for BRK at 500K/share.)

 

[jerry33]

But, max range was reduced for valid reasons. Tesla should not build a mass-production vehicle targeting the largest US vehicle segment with range that is statistically required by less than 5% of the buyers.

Another way this could be said is there are going to be fewer buyers in the area where the longer range is a real plus. In another twenty years, based on current SC implementation in those areas, this will be moot, but I suspect most will have traded in the Tesla they buy this year by then.

 

[Knightshade]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1742755115625328828

The tesla employee in question being Elon--- who said similar things about v11 and v10 and v9.... so take that with the appropriate amount of salt.

 

[Mengy]

Am I the only one that thinks Tesla shot itself in the foot by underestimating how long it would take to get 4680s to ramp? They clearly stopped ramping 2170s since they thought 4680s was the future. 4680s probably are but like many other Tesla projects this one is taking longer than expected.

The problem of course being that batteries are a limiting resource for expanding production. Specifically the gen 3 model(s). With more batteries ready in 2023-24 they should have the "$25.000" model ready for ramp up production by now. Never mind real production of the Semi. Now they still haven't even built the factories to manufacture either.

It was a huge mistake to, if not bet the farm then at least a harvest season or two, on a product that was hardly a prototype at the time.

Like many others I believe Tesla will fall well behind the 50% curve this year and will most likely never be able to expand fast enough again to catch up. Doesn't mean it won't grow fast but not to anywhere near 20 million in 2030. Maybe in 2035.

Good thing Tesla Energy is growing so fast.

Having 4680's to use PLUS every third party supplier battery they can buy is much greater than just using every third party supplier battery they can buy.

I for one do not think pursuing internally made 4680's was a mistake. Yes I do think it's unfortunate they are behind schedule and the ramp is going slowly, but Tesla will figure it out in time (if they haven't already), and once they do having the ability to produce Tesla 4680's at will becomes a MASSIVE positive catalyst.