"Accelerate the advent of sustainable transport". How fast can that possibly be done?

[Benz]

"Accelerate the advent of sustainable transport". How fast can that possibly be done?

On a worldwide scale normally this just can't realisticly be done by just one company, that would be just too much to ask for, and it would take too long as well. But on the ohter hand, with Elon Musk at the helm, who know's what can be done at Tesla Motors?

Other car companies have to start to see the light as well. Much more than we see today. In order for that to happen these other car companies have to feel competitive pressure. And that will happen as Tesla Motors will keep on scaling up production (and sales, and deliveries). And scaling up battery production in a very significant way, according to Elon Musk that is going to be very important in order to reach higher volumes.

Will it be enough to aproximately double the annual production every year?
Is that how fast it can and will be done?
Your thoughts are welcome in this thread.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Make cheap batteries and the rest follows.
Don't quite hit the price targets for Gen 3 and Tesla still gets plenty of luxury BEV sales, but doesn't quite pressure the mass market.
But as long as no other manufacturer is competingin its market space Tesla just has to be profitable and keep working to lower costs and maintain the cost lead as the cell manufactueers keep lowering cost per kWh and improving the tech.

 

[jerry33]

It's like Elon said: It won't happen until they start to lose sales to BEVs. By then it will be too late for most of the majors because even the ones that are doing EVs (like Nissan) will have to do more than just put batteries in an ICE design.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

It's like Elon said: It won't happen until they start to lose sales to BEVs. By then it will be too late for most of the majors because even the ones that are doing EVs (like Nissan) will have to do more than just put batteries in an ICE design.

Nissan's not the example to use. Nissan and GM both have cars built around a battery pack and have a commitment to gain PEV sales and both of their approaches have merit. Other manufacturers have used existing cars for compliance. Toyota, Ford and Honda are working up from hybrids, while Europeans either aren't bothering or are developing plug-in hybrids.

 

[Benz]

Yesterday Elon Musk mentioned that currently they were producing at an average of an annual rate of about 25,000 Tesla Model S EV's per year. That comes down to an average of about 500 Tesla Model S EV's per week. I think that that weekly figure will steadily grow to about 600 Tesla Model S EV's per week by the end of 2013. And then to a about 700 Tesla Model S EV's per week somewhere halfway June/July 2014. And by late 2014 they will have reached a weekly level of 800 Tesla Model S EV's per week (as already is predicted by Elon Musk). So, every 6 months there is a cumulative growth of about 100 Tesla Model S EV's being produced per week. One can also say that every 3 months there is a cumulative growth of about 50 Tesla Model S EV's being produced per week.

By the time that the production of the Tesla Model X will start (end 2014) they will be at that rate of about an average of 800 Tesla EV's per week (total for both Tesla Model S and Tesla Model X?).

As from 2015 things will be different. As from then on they will have to accelarate the cumulative growth to an even higher level of (maybe) 100 extra Tesla EV's after every 3 months. That would mean:
At the start of Q1 2015 the weekly production of Tesla EV's will be about 800.
At the start of Q2 2015 the weekly production of Tesla EV's will be about 900.
At the start of Q3 2015 the weekly production of Tesla EV's will be about 1,000.
At the start of Q4 2015 the weekly production of Tesla EV's will be about 1,100.
This adds to a total production of 45,600 in 2015 (taking into account that in every Q there will be 1 week of no production).

2014:
Q1 = 600 x 12 = 7,200
Q2 = 650 x 12 = 7,800
Q3 = 700 x 12 = 8,400
Q4 = 750 x 12 = 9,000
Total 2014 = 32,400 Tesla Model S EV's.

2013:
Q1 = 4,900
Q2 = 450 x 12 = 5,400
Q3 = 500 x 12 = 6,000
Q4 = 550 x 12 = 6,600
Total 2013 = 22,900 Tesla Model S EV's.

Actually, during the course of each Q there is an advance in cumulative growth as well. So, the year totals are going to be higher than I have calculated. That makes it that my expectations are even on the low (save) side. They actually will prove to be higher. And that's just great.

I hope that this makes some sense to you all.

By the way, a more precised calculation on the basis of a weekly cumulative growth would result in 260 extra Tesla Model S EV's being produced in every Q in 2013 and in 2014. The total for 2013 would be 23,680 Tesla Model S EV's. And the total for 2014 would be 33,440 Tesla Model S/X EV's.

And a more precised calculation on the basis of a weekly cumulative growth would result in 3,800 extra Tesla Model S/X EV's being produced in every Q in 2015. The total for 2015 would be 49,400 Tesla Model S/X EV's.

 

[Benz]

"Currently producing at an annualized rate of more than 25K units (saw a flat panel on the factory tour that indicated 5,454 units produced in the 2nd quarter."

That's what an owner saw himself at a factory tour during the TESLIVE event.

Here is the link: http://teslamodels.wordpress.com/

But how many of these were actually sold to customers (and paid for) and delivered to them as well?

 

[SebastianR]

"Currently producing at an annualized rate of more than 25K units (saw a flat panel on the factory tour that indicated 5,454 units produced in the 2nd quarter."

That's what an owner saw himself at a factory tour during the TESLIVE event.

Here is the link: http://teslamodels.wordpress.com/

But how many of these were actually sold to customers (and paid for) and delivered to them as well?

Well, why would you increase the production beyond your own guidance / plans if you can't sell them? I'm not currently too worried about the demand for the cars. We all know the company is extremely closely observed by many. We also know that Elon has a long term perspective and we know he understands the expectations game. So IMHO if there was even the slightest hint of demand slow-down Tesla would not accelerate production rates but rather focus on the build-up of Galleries, Super Chargers and other items that keep them in the news and sell cars.